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US Open Note – Dollar loses ground after five weeks of gains

Posted on May 20, 2022 at 1:03 pm GMT

Dollar index ticks down as euro approaches $1.06 On Friday, the US dollar was on track to have its worst week against key rivals since the beginning of February. Global stocks have been falling this week as well due to risks to growth from aggressive monetary tightening – led by the Federal Reserve – and China’s strict lockdowns to quash an outbreak of Covid-19. The appeal of the dollar as a haven was eclipsed overnight by a decline in US yields as investors rushed for [..]

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US Open Note – Recession fears keep jolting markets

Posted on May 19, 2022 at 1:24 pm GMT

Signs of recession pop up in earnings Sellers stormed into stock markets as giant US retailers Target and Walmart revealed a hit in margins on the back of rising labor and energy costs, with the former losing more than a third of its share value on Wednesday despite serving only local clients. The jittery earnings surprise follows Powell’s commitment to higher interest rates earlier this week, making investors think more seriously that the mix of inflation and monetary tightening could [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks pare gains; European currencies slip too after nice rally

Posted on May 18, 2022 at 1:40 pm GMT

Recession not fully priced in Who will pay the price? That’s the question that bothers investors nowadays as businesses feel more confident to transfer rising production costs to consumers and central banks constantly message markets that additional rate increases are the immediate solution for spiraling inflation. Further monetary tightening is largely anticipated in the UK as inflation clocked in at a new 40-year high of 9.0% y/y as expected in April, while the Fed chief stated yesterday that rates could [..]

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US Open Note – Upbeat data drive risk-on mode ahead of Powell’s speech; Euro gears up on rate hike outlook

Posted on May 17, 2022 at 1:27 pm GMT

Pound is the best performer, but for how long? Markets were volatile ahead of the US open, with the European currencies switching to recovery mode after a period of heavy selling, and the US dollar index losing some steam as some rosy data releases shifted funds to riskier assets and hopes for China easing lockdown measures flourished. Upbeat employment and wage data out of the UK triggered the largest daily increase in the British pound in months. Strikingly, the number [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar cools off, euro turns up and gold back to $1,800

Posted on May 16, 2022 at 12:53 pm GMT

Chinese data drives dollar higher In the wake of disappointing Chinese economic statistics, which sent the British pound and the Australian dollar down, the US dollar held onto its two-decade high earlier in the day. The surge in the dollar has been fuelled by China’s long-term economic lockdowns, which have contributed together with other uncertainties to an almost 10% rise in the dollar index since the beginning of 2022. In April, China’s retail and industrial activity declined substantially due to widespread Covid-19 lockdowns, which kept workers [..]

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Why US stock markets face tremendous downside pressures? – Stock Market News

Posted on May 13, 2022 at 9:51 am GMT

Stock markets have been shaken this year by increasing fears concerning the global economic outlook. Persistent inflationary pressures, worries over recession, and the anticipation of aggressive monetary tightening have been largely weighing on investors’ risk sentiment, luring away liquidity from risky assets. Although many investors have been endorsing a buy the dip strategy in the past few days, it seems that the major US indices have not bottomed yet. So, let’s take a closer look at what has been driving [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar unlocks 20-year high; euro breaks $1.04

Posted on May 12, 2022 at 12:57 pm GMT

Dollar surges but dips against yen The dollar touched a two-decade high against a basket of currencies after US inflation fell less than expected in April. Dollar/yen is declining by 1%, meeting the 129.40 level. Despite increasingly hawkish ECB rhetoric, the euro is trading below $1.0400, falling by 1.0%, with the next key support coming at $1.0340. Euro/yen and pound/yen are plummeting over 2% today. US stock futures are suggesting a strong negative open, continuing the several days of losses. The safe-haven greenback gained support from a worldwide equity sell-off because of investor concerns that central banks are behind the curve [..]

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US Open Note – US CPI beats expectations and rises by 8.3%; dollar moves up again

Posted on May 11, 2022 at 1:36 pm GMT

The CPI rate ticked up by 8.3% in the year that ended in April. The annual CPI decrease was the first since August, but it was the eighth month in a row of gains of more than 6%. In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% year-over-year, the highest increase since December 1981. After the release of higher-than-expected CPI figures, the dollar initially rose.  The dollar index is showing positive signs as it jumped beyond 104.00; however, US futures are leading lower, suggesting a [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar steadies as it awaits US CPI data

Posted on May 10, 2022 at 12:50 pm GMT

Fed speakers today and US CPI tomorrow in focus This week, Fed speakers will be out in full force to disseminate the latest views of the central bank. Each one of these officials has a chance to share their thoughts on current policy. Barkin did this last week and put 75 bp back on the table, stressing that he wants to raise rates “as quickly as possible.” Others at the Fed are also likely to adopt a more hawkish outlook in the coming days. But the main thing to [..]

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US Open Note – Pound crashes on dovish rate hike; Wall Street eyes bearish open

Posted on May 5, 2022 at 1:32 pm GMT

Pound crashes after BoE policy decision The Bank of England stuck to its March guidance, confirming expectations of a 25bps rate hike to 1.0% on Thursday although three out of nine board members surprisingly voted for a sharper 50bps increase. Its inflation projections for the current year moved up to 10% on the back of higher household energy prices and projected additional rises in October, while its growth estimate is now warning a dip slowdown over the next year as [..]

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