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Technical Analysis – US 500 index extends sideways move

Posted on May 15, 2023 at 7:55 am GMT

The US 500 stock index (cash) has been gaining ground since mid-March, slicing through both its 50 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Nevertheless, this recent advance faltered just shy of the 2023 peak of 4,195, with the price entering a consolidation phase beyond the 4,000 psychological mark. The momentum indicators are tilting towards the bearish side. Specifically, the MACD dropped below its red signal line but remains in the positive zone, while the stochastic oscillator is ticking down after [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar gains despite increasing Fed cut bets

Posted on May 12, 2023 at 8:07 am GMT

Jobless claims jump to a 1-1/2-year high Dollar attracts haven flows, but too early for reversal BoE hikes, revises up inflation and GDP projections Dow and S&P 500 reflect worries, Nasdaq stays supported Dollar takes safe-haven suit out of the closet The US dollar outperformed every other major currency yesterday, despite US data adding to worries about the US economy and prompting investors to increase bets with regards to rate reductions by the Fed later this year. Initial jobless claims [..]

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What did we learn about stocks this earnings season? – Special Report

Posted on May 10, 2023 at 11:55 am GMT

The earnings season is almost over and stock markets are in a joyful mood. Even though corporate earnings are on track to decline for a second quarter, the drop was far less severe than what analysts expected, spreading cheer in the markets. In this piece, we dissect the outlook for earnings and examine whether valuations reflect economic reality.  Beating a low bar As the earnings season winds down, the results have been quite encouraging. In the first quarter of this [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar receives mild support ahead of CPI data

Posted on May 9, 2023 at 7:49 am GMT

Dollar rises as Fed survey eases recession fears Risk-linked currencies gain more on improving sentiment Spotlight turns to US CPI numbers Wall Street trades mixed ahead of the data Fed loan survey lends mild support to the US dollar The US dollar gained some ground versus the euro, the pound, and the yen yesterday, but underperformed against the risk-linked aussie, kiwi and loonie. The greenback is slightly outperforming most of its peers today. Traders may have decided to buy some [..]

Daily Market Comment – Fed hints at possible pause; ECB enters the spotlight

Posted on May 4, 2023 at 7:36 am GMT

Fed hikes by 25bps, but turns data dependent Dollar extends slide as investors price in a June pause ECB to hike by 25bps as well, focus could fall on Lagarde Wall Street and oil prices slide, gold nearly hits its record Dollar falls as Fed seen pivoting during summer The US dollar continued to weaken across the board yesterday, with the slide extending into the Asian session today as the Fed watered down its forward guidance, prompting investors to price [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar on the back foot ahead of Fed decision

Posted on May 3, 2023 at 7:51 am GMT

US debt default and banking sector concerns hurt the dollar Fed to hike, focus to fall on forward guidance Wall Street in defensive mode ahead of Fed Dollar slides on debt ceiling and banking sector anxiety The US dollar weakened against most of its major peers on Tuesday and continued losing ground today amid concerns about a potential US debt default and a reminder that the troubles in the banking sector are not totally over yet. US Treasury Secretary Janet [..]

Daily Market Comment – Recession fears mount but dollar fails to maintain haven status

Posted on April 27, 2023 at 8:06 am GMT

Ongoing uncertainties in the US hurt the dollar Atlanta Fed GDP estimate revised lower ahead of official data BoJ expected to stand pat, focus to fall on guidance Recession fears weigh on Dow and S&P 500, but Nasdaq gains Dollar pulls back against most of the other majors The US dollar traded lower against most of its major peers on Wednesday and continued drifting south today as well. It seems that with the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the world’s biggest economy, [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar gains amid renewed recession fears

Posted on April 26, 2023 at 8:23 am GMT

Dollar, yen gain as investors seek shelter Fed rate cut bets are back firmly on the table Euro uptrend may stay the course as ECB seen hiking more Wall Street slides amid renewed economic concerns Dollar wears its safe-haven suit again The dollar strengthened against the other major currencies on Tuesday, with the only exception being the yen, suggesting that the dollar’s gains may have been the result of safe-haven inflows. Today, the US currency is pulling back. Indeed, the [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index pulls back after advance pauses

Posted on April 24, 2023 at 9:37 am GMT

The US 500 stock index (cash) has been on a steady uptrend since mid-March, slicing through both its 50 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). However, this recent rebound faltered just shy of the 2023 peak of 4,195, with the price experiencing a moderate downside correction. The short-term oscillators are reflecting this loss of positive momentum. Specifically, the MACD histogram dropped below its red signal line but remains in the positive zone, while the stochastic oscillator is descending near the [..]

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Daily Market Comment – Dollar eyes weekly gain, but Fed pivot bets increase

Posted on April 21, 2023 at 8:43 am GMT

Disappointing US data revives Fed pivot speculation ECB to stay the course on rate hikes Yen enjoys safe-haven flows, inflation data also help Wall Street skids after gloomy earnings Investors see one more Fed hike, but still expect rate cuts The US dollar slid against most of its counterparts on Thursday, but it seems to be regaining ground today. Following hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Waller last Friday, investors became more confident that another hike will be delivered in May [..]

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