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S&P 500 at all-time highs, expected to make bigger moves ahead – Volatility report

Posted on February 6, 2024 at 8:39 am GMT

Volatility remains low across the FX spectrum with the exception of EUR/USD Gold volatility drops but silver remains at its midpoint; oil and Bitcoin set for small moves S&P 500 volatility rises significantly; remaining stock indices in calmer waters Volatility in EUR/USD has jumped as the pair recorded a sizeable correction last week following some key data releases. The remaining currencies covered in this report, including the yen crosses, are expected by the market to record small price movements going [..]

Market Comment – Dollar and equities rip higher after stellar US jobs data

Posted on February 5, 2024 at 9:33 am GMT

Surprisingly strong US employment report sends dollar higher Stock markets hit new record highs despite Trump’s tariff threats Oil comes crashing down, ISM data and RBA decision coming next Dollar shines after impressive jobs data Another blockbuster employment report highlighted the resilience of the US economy on Friday, pouring cold water on bets of imminent Fed rate cuts. The American economy added 353k jobs in January, nearly double what economists had projected, while last month’s figures were also revised higher. [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 cash index continues to record higher highs

Posted on February 5, 2024 at 8:22 am GMT

US 500 index flirts with new all-time highs on daily basis Bears lack the strength to stage a correction Momentum indicators still support the bullish move The US 500 cash index is edging lower after recording a new all-time high of 4,976 last week. Friday’s US labour market statistics do not appear to have dented the market’s bullish appetite. Having said that, the pace of the rally since the October 27, 2023 low of 4,100 remains too aggressive and thus keeping the [..]

Market Comment – Powell pushes back on March rate cut, BoE on tap

Posted on February 1, 2024 at 9:12 am GMT

Fed’s Powell says March rate cut not the “base case” Dollar gains, but Treasury yields slide BoE to stand pat, focus to fall on guidance Wall Street tumbles, awaits more earnings results Dollar gains on less-dovish-than-expected Fed The US dollar gained against all but two of its major counterparts yesterday, losing ground only against the yen and ending the day virtually unchanged against the franc. The main losers were the aussie and the loonie. What added fuel to the greenback’s [..]

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Market Comment – Investors lock gaze on Fed decision

Posted on January 31, 2024 at 9:11 am GMT

Fed to stand pat, focus to turn on rate path signals Aussie falls after Australian CPI slows by more than expected Euro slides ahead of preliminary CPI data from Germany Wall Street trades mixed ahead of Fed decision Will the Fed pour cold water on March rate cut bets? The US dollar traded mixed against the other major currencies on Tuesday, but it is gaining ground today. That said, whether the greenback will hold onto those gains will depend on [..]

Market Comment – Euro/dollar loses ground after ECB and US GDP data

Posted on January 26, 2024 at 9:54 am GMT

Euro trades lower as ECB downplays inflation threat Dollar gets a minor boost from US GDP, slowing inflation bruises yen Stocks hit new records, but futures drop on disappointing earnings  ECB fails to push back on rate cut bets The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged yesterday and did not really provide any fresh signals about the path of monetary policy. President Lagarde stressed that it was still premature to discuss rate cuts, but investors did not take her [..]

Market Comment – Dollar pulls back, Yen stages another recovery

Posted on January 24, 2024 at 9:46 am GMT

Dollar retreats as Bullard talks March rate cut Yen recovers again on BoJ hike speculation BoC to keep interest rates untouched Risk appetite remains supported, S&P 500 hits new record Bullard says Fed could cut rates as soon as March The US dollar traded higher against most of the major currencies on Tuesday, losing some ground only against the risk-linked aussie, kiwi and loonie. That said, the greenback is on the back foot today, perhaps due to remarks by former [..]

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Volatility Report – January 23, 2024

Posted on January 23, 2024 at 10:45 am GMT

Volatility remains significantly low across the currency board Commodity markets seem quiet as well, oil exhibits more volatility than metals US indices in the middle of volatility range, JP225 and Bitcoin are rather hot The recent range-trading in most major currency pairs has caused their expected volatility to drop to relatively low levels. That said, there are several central bank meetings coming up, which could help reignite FX volatility In the commodity space, volatility of gold and silver continues its downward move despite the [..]

Market Comment – Yen rebounds as Ueda hints at policy shift

Posted on January 23, 2024 at 9:19 am GMT

BoJ stands pat as expected, lowers core CPI projection But yen rebounds on Ueda’s relatively hawkish remarks Risk sentiment improves on China’s stimulus plan S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit fresh record highs BoJ’s Ueda brings yen to life The yen was the protagonist on Tuesday, coming under some selling interest after the BoJ kept its ultra-loose policy unchanged as expected and lowered its forecasts for core inflation for the fiscal year beginning in April to 2.4% from 2.8% projected [..]

Market Comment – Yen awaits BoJ decision, stocks hit new records

Posted on January 22, 2024 at 10:01 am GMT

Stock markets reach new heights on solid US data and AI hype Risk-on sentiment keeps dollar on back foot, even as Fed cut bets fade Bank of Japan meets on Tuesday, unlikely to rescue battered yen US equities set another record Shares on Wall Street reached a new all-time high last week, as the enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence went into overdrive and another round of solid economic data reinforced hopes that the US economy can avoid a recession. Companies with [..]

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