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Technical Analysis – US 500 battles with 123.6% Fibonacci

Posted on March 4, 2024 at 11:10 am GMT

US 500 cash index extends its series of record highs       Tests 123.6% Fibonacci extension of its 2022 downtrend Oscillators look overbought, increasing risk of a pullback The US 500 stock index (cash) has been staging an impressive rally since it bottomed out in October 2023, generating consecutive all-time highs. Given that the price is trading into uncharted waters, the Fibonacci extensions of its most recent downtrend could provide potential future resistance zones. Should bullish pressures persist, buyers might initially claim 5,130, which is the 123.6% Fibonacci [..]

Market Comment – Gold and equities shine after disappointing US data

Posted on March 4, 2024 at 10:07 am GMT

Dollar loses steam after soft ISM manufacturing survey But gold and stock markets rally, closing at new records Huge week lies ahead, featuring an ECB decision and US payrolls Dollar retreats on softer data A wave of euphoria swept through global markets last week after a disappointing US manufacturing survey rekindled hopes that lower interest rates are on the horizon, sending investors rushing to buy real assets. The US manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction in February according to the [..]

Market Comment – Yen gains on BoJ remarks, dollar awaits key inflation data

Posted on February 29, 2024 at 9:31 am GMT

BoJ’s Takata signals that policy adjustment is approaching Dollar braces for PCE inflation data Wall Street pulls back, Bitcoin surges above $60,000 BoJ’s Takata adds fuel to yen’s engines The US dollar traded higher on Wednesday, but it seems to be cooling down today, as it is trading virtually unchanged or lower against most of its major peers, with the main gainer being the Japanese yen. The wounded yen found some footing after Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata [..]

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As earnings season winds down, what’s next for US stocks? – Stock Markets

Posted on February 29, 2024 at 7:28 am GMT

Solid Q4 earnings season driven by Magnificent 7 Stocks extend rally despite bets for fewer rate cuts Excluding an exogenous event, no risks on the horizon Corporate earnings aid stock market rally As most US companies have revealed their Q4 financials, it is now safe to draw some conclusions regarding the health of the corporate world. The results have been more than encouraging, with the S&P 500 being on track for a 10.0% annual earnings growth according to LSEG, beating [..]

Are there more AI growth opportunities to be priced into the markets? – Special Report

Posted on February 28, 2024 at 12:49 pm GMT

Nvidia skyrockets and drives the S&P 500 to new records Demand for chips continues to surge, AI enters consumers’ life There maybe more AI growth opportunities to be priced in But downside risks on high valuations and geopolitics do exist Nvidia beats already optimistic estimates Just last week, the investor favorite Nvidia beat out Amazon and Alphabet to take the third place as the most valuable company in the US by market capitalization, and although the chipmaker’s stock pulled back [..]

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Performance in past “Fed pause” intervals supports the current S&P 500 rally – Special Report

Posted on February 28, 2024 at 10:55 am GMT

A performance comparison of key assets in the previous Fed pause periods The S&P 500 index could go higher if history repeats itself The US 10-year yield is expected to drop when the Fed decides to signal rate cuts A special report was published last year analysing the performance of key market assets during the three occasions since 2000 – in 2000-01, 2006-07 and 2018-19 respectively – when the Fed paused after a rate hiking cycle. The end product was [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 bull run could take another break

Posted on February 26, 2024 at 11:24 am GMT

US 500 shows some signs of running out of steam Outlook positive above 20-day EMA   The US 500 stock index (cash) could not sustain gains above Thursday’s closing price of 5,081 on Friday despite a flash spike to a record high of 5,111, forming a shooting star candlestick with a long upper wick at the top of the uptrend instead. The candlestick pattern could be a cautious sign that the bears are around the corner, but traders will monitor today’s trading actions to get [..]

Market Comment – Dollar gains ground ahead of key inflation data

Posted on February 26, 2024 at 9:22 am GMT

Dollar rebounds as PCE inflation data eyed Investors continue to scale back Fed rate cut bets Kiwi slides but RBNZ hike chance remains unchanged Wall Street loses steam, focus could turn on monetary policy Core PCE index the dollar’s next test The US dollar traded somewhat higher against most of the other major currencies on Friday, losing some ground only against the pound, the aussie and the kiwi. The greenback began the new week higher or virtually unchanged, gaining the [..]

Market Comment – Nvidia supercharges tech rally, euro loses momentum

Posted on February 23, 2024 at 10:00 am GMT

Stock markets hit new record highs after stellar Nvidia earnings Euro surrenders early gains as German economic gloom intensifies Dollar recovers with help from solid data, risk-linked currencies shine Tech propels stocks to new highs Equity markets rode to new record highs on Thursday, after a stellar earnings report from Nvidia lit a fire under tech shares. The world’s most important chip designer knocked it out of the park as it delivered earnings and revenue that easily beat analyst estimates, [..]

Market Comment – Fed minutes confirm caution about lowering rates

Posted on February 22, 2024 at 9:46 am GMT

Fed minutes reveal concerns about lowering rates too soon Rate cut bets are pushed back but dollar remains unimpressed Kiwi continues to gain on increasing RBNZ hike speculation Wall Street closes mixed, Nvidia beats earnings estimates Dollar slides further despite hawkish Fed minutes The dollar traded lower against all but one of its major counterparts yesterday, with the New Zealand dollar being once again the main gainer and the Japanese yen the exception. The minutes of the latest FOMC decision [..]

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