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Daily Market Comment – Dovish Fed lifts Wall Street, but can’t keep yields down

Posted on March 18, 2021 at 10:00 am GMT

Fed maintains dovish rate path despite upping growth and inflation forecasts Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit new records; Nasdaq rises too before futures slip Dollar falls but then rebounds as 10-year Treasury yields resume climb BoE decision up next, pound steady; yen see-saws on BoJ rumours Fed reiterates rate outlook, not worried about yields The Federal Reserve bumped up its growth and inflation projections in its latest meeting on Wednesday even as the majority of policymakers predicted that rates [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks soften, dollar flashes green, FOMC draws focus

Posted on March 17, 2021 at 2:04 pm GMT

FOMC jitters, dollar steps up, CAD inflation There seems to be a calm before the storm in markets today, with momentum somewhat having dried up in a climate of economic optimism. The FOMC nerves seem to have benched market players, despite expectations for the Fed to stick to its current course of action, now that accelerated jabs are reaching peoples arms and stimulus relief and government spending will soon start to show face in the economy. The main narrative seems [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar freezes in calm day; Vaccine rollout gets delayed

Posted on March 16, 2021 at 1:59 pm GMT

Dollar holds firm; S&P 500 flies to record high The market today is calm as investors are all waiting on the Fed tomorrow to commit to any firm moves. The FOMC is starting a two-day meeting that will end tomorrow and no change in policy is predicted, but the forward guidance for interest rates and asset purchases will be crucial. Stock futures are almost flat today and the bond market is virtually unchanged, so this looks like a market waiting for guidance from the Fed. European stocks/equities/markets are [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar pushes up after strong NFP report

Posted on March 5, 2021 at 2:03 pm GMT

NFP report drives dollar even higher It’s NFP day and markets just got an update on the speed and direction of the country’s labor-market recovery. The US economy added 379k jobs compared to market expectation of a 182k rise and 49k before, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3% in the preceding month, amid easing business restrictions, falling coronavirus infection rates, a fast vaccine rollout and continued support from the government. Markets are still focusing on the imminent $1.9trln of stimulus package and an ultra-dovish Fed. The spike [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar surges, stocks sink after Powell lets yields run loose

Posted on March 5, 2021 at 10:05 am GMT

Powell gives no hints about possible action to stem selloff in Treasuries Dollar soars to 3-month high, shares on Wall Street tank for third straight day OPEC+ extends output cuts in surprise move, oil scales early 2020 highs Treasury yields resume rally after Powell stays course Investors hoping for fresh clues from the Fed about how it plans to ride through the storm in bond markets were left disappointed on Thursday after Chair Jerome Powell offered no new insight. Speaking [..]

Daily Market Comment – Yields creep up ahead of Powell; stocks slip, dollar firms

Posted on March 4, 2021 at 9:35 am GMT

Fragile risk sentiment as yields rise again, sending shares on Wall Street skidding Powell speech in focus as bond volatility sparks speculation of ‘Operation Twist’ Commodity currencies fend off stronger dollar but euro and pound struggle Rising yields causing headache for the Fed The rout in bond markets is far from over as the selloff that had subsided somewhat earlier in the week accelerated again on Wednesday, pushing global yields higher. The US 10-year yield came within a whisker of [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar’s fight back continues as bond market remains in focus

Posted on March 2, 2021 at 2:14 pm GMT

Wall Street could start the day in red; bond market in focus The futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are signaling a negative open today after their biggest advance in almost nine months, as investors cautiously monitored the bond market and progress on the next round of fiscal stimulus.  Wall Street surged on Monday as bond markets calmed, while developments on Covid-19 vaccines and fiscal stimulus bolstered expectations of a swift economic recovery. The dollar gained on the back of the reflation trade. Dollar/yen [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar advances as stocks slip again, yields hold steady

Posted on March 2, 2021 at 10:02 am GMT

Calmer bond markets lift Wall Street, but global stocks dip on China’s bubble warning Dollar approaches one-month high as ECB, RBA and RBNZ push back on rising yields Oil prices fall for third straight day on higher supply worries, gold struggles Bubble warning pressures stocks Risk appetite waned slightly on Tuesday as the relative stability in bond markets was overshadowed by warnings of a “bubble problem in foreign financial markets” by a top Chinese financial regulator. The comments revived fears [..]

Daily Market Comment – Yen and franc dive but stocks unable to sustain Powell bounce

Posted on February 24, 2021 at 10:28 am GMT

Safe-havens yen and franc plunge again as Powell boosts recovery hopes US stocks pull back from sharp dip but elevated yields continue to weigh Pound catapults to fresh highs; aussie, kiwi and loonie soar too Powell reassurance sends safe havens skidding Growing optimism about a vaccine-led recovery continued to reverberate through currency markets on Wednesday, steering riskier pairs to fresh highs, while pummelling traditional safe havens such as the yen and Swiss franc. The latest wave of positive outburst comes [..]

Daily Market Comment – Higher yields start to bite but dollar mired in recovery doubts

Posted on February 19, 2021 at 9:59 am GMT

Long-term Treasury yields climb again, dampening the mood in equity markets Stocks and gold slide, but dollar stumbles over poor jobless claims figures Pound hits $1.40, unbruised by big retail sales miss; aussie soars Surge in global bond yields spooks markets Global bond yields are creeping higher again after a brief reprieve mid-week. The record issuance of government bonds and expectations of even greater borrowing to fight the pandemic have sparked a bond selloff as the reflation trade gets into [..]

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