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US Open Note – Stocks stabilize with US inflation uncertainty, dollar flickers green    

Posted on May 12, 2021 at 1:28 pm GMT

Market retraction pauses; US CPI shocks markets but effects fade    Investors have been patiently awaiting hints from US inflation today on whether the stride of the recovery has somewhat slowed. The risk-off climate is not receiving any assistance from yields and it seems profit taking and inflation could be the premise for the latest risk-off environment. The pullback of the highs in the major US indices continues to denote the deterioration in near-term risk sentiment despite the release of [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks slip and yields muted; dollar takes back seat as inflation fears remain

Posted on May 11, 2021 at 1:27 pm GMT

Stocks in the red and dollar’s might curbed as yields steady The major US indices have pulled back from their highs with the Nasdaq 100 slipping 2.63% and the Dow Jones falling the least. It seems some aftereffects from the freshly inflicted wound of the disappointing NFP payrolls for April may be curbing dollar strength, but subdued yields are also playing their part. The dollar index is flirting with the 90.00 mark after the greenback surrendered to bearish forces.  Moreover, [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index sustains steady hike into uncharted waters

Posted on May 10, 2021 at 3:25 pm GMT

The US 500 stock index (Cash) has registered a fresh all-time high of 4,244 and is maintaining its’ decisive bullish tone, which is being shielded by the Ichimoku lines. Moreover, the firm incline in the slopes of the simple moving averages (SMAs) provide a formidable buffer zone for sellers to overcome in order to shift the bias to the downside. The short-term oscillators are transmitting mixed signals in directional sentiment, but the broader picture remains clearly bullish. The MACD is [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks recoup lost ground, dollar retreats, gold steadies and oil climbs

Posted on May 5, 2021 at 2:27 pm GMT

Stocks recover and dollar bounces back As a slight return in risk assets seeps into markets and major US indices regain their buoyancy, the forex environment seems to be subdued. The Nasdaq is reclaiming yesterdays’ lost ground but at a slower pace than the S&P 500, while the Dow Jones is holding back at its all-time highs. The blow to markets footing was apparent in the US indices’ Tuesday tumble, corresponding to US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s erroneous choice of words [..]

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Weekly Comment – After dovish Fed, NFP unlikely to boost sagging dollar

Posted on April 30, 2021 at 2:10 pm GMT

The US dollar recouped some losses at the end of the week but couldn’t hide the bruises endured in April as the Fed dashed any remaining expectation that it will respond to any spike in inflation. The focus next week will be on the NFP numbers. But don’t expect the dollar to get excited.   Next week’s highlights:   The RBA meets on Tuesday and will update its view on the economy. Australia’s recovery remains strong but subdued inflation and [..]

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Daily Market Comment – Dollar set for big monthly losses, stocks struggle for direction again

Posted on April 30, 2021 at 8:56 am GMT

Dollar steadier but month-long rout probably not over yet, yen firmer too S&P 500 closes at another record high but stocks slip today amid some jitters Copper soars past $10,000 a tonne, oil moderates after boost from upbeat US GDP Don’t fight the dovish Fed The US dollar is on track for its worst 4-week run since last July and looks set to end the month with losses of at least 2.5%. An uptick in the growth outlook for some [..]

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US Open Note –Stocks strong around highs, yields receive boost, dollar on back foot

Posted on April 29, 2021 at 1:44 pm GMT

Stocks optimistic as yields rise, risk remains somewhat subdued, GDP data key Stocks maintain an upbeat tone with the S&P 500 index winning the race, currently at the 4,214 level. The dollar index has surrendered its latest gains to today’s high of 90.67, pulling slightly lower to 90.53. The stumble in the greenback has strengthened the euro to $1.2133 assisted by a slur of positive Eurozone data, which is outperforming the relatively subdued sterling at $1.3944. The Fed has somewhat [..]

Daily Market Comment – Powell sinks dollar but can’t keep yields down for long

Posted on April 29, 2021 at 9:19 am GMT

US dollar and yields tumble after Powell says not the time to talk about taper But yields bounce back ahead of expected surge in Q1 GDP data, weigh on equities Blowout tech earnings finally inject some life into Wall Street, futures up Powell as dovish as ever The Federal Reserve struck a more positive tone on the US economy on Wednesday as it kept monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Policymakers acknowledged the progress on vaccinations and greater flow of [..]

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US Open Note – Fed decision in spotlight; dollar rises near 109 yen

Posted on April 28, 2021 at 1:11 pm GMT

FOMC meeting in focus; dollar heads higher The major highlight of the day is the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. Policymakers will likely recognize the fast economic recovery from the pandemic as the progressing vaccination program brightens the outlook for the economy.  Despite that, the central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady within the target range of 0-0.25% and its monthly bond purchases stable at $120 billion. Following the Bank of Canada’s bond tapering announcement, investors will be eaerly waiting to hear whether the Fed is also planning [..]

Daily Market Comment – Yields jump ahead of Fed decision; Biden also in the spotlight

Posted on April 28, 2021 at 9:11 am GMT

Treasury yields creep up again on rising inflation expectations but Fed to stay the course Biden to seek Congressional support for big spending in joint address Dollar recoups further lost ground but dovish Powell could torpedo it Equities modestly higher as soaring earnings fail to set Wall Street alight Fed meets amid fresh warning signs in bond markets Treasury yields headed higher and the US dollar recovered further from multi-week lows ahead of what may not turn out to be [..]

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