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US Open Note – Kiwi shines after RBNZ’s hawkish stance; Dollar remains below 109 yen

Posted on May 26, 2021 at 1:00 pm GMT

RBNZ less dovish message drives kiwi up Kiwi is the best performing currency today versus the US dollar, surpassing the 0.7300 handle and recording a fresh three-month high. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) projected a rate hike by September 2022, taking the economy closer to an exit from the pandemic situation. The bank signalled a less dovish message in May, while leaving monetary policy steady, as it revised up its forecasts for inflation higher but lowered them for unemployment. In other commodity [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks improve, dollar on back foot as yields dip again

Posted on May 25, 2021 at 1:49 pm GMT

Stocks creep up as dollar heads toward 5-month lows; Fed echoes no alarm Markets seem to be emanating a slight improvement in risk sentiment as major US indices are extending yesterday’s rally at a somewhat slower pace. The fresh dip in the US 10-year yield, currently at 1.58%, is not providing any assistance for the dollar to regain some of its market dominance. As rates are not going anywhere soon as the inflation narrative continues to be downplayed, the dollar [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 index flashes green above 200-SMA

Posted on May 24, 2021 at 9:50 am GMT

The US 500 stock index (Cash) is conveying a slight increase in positive impetus, after its latest rally off the 4,060 low lifted the price above the 4,151 barrier. The latter happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 3,853 until 4,244, and the current vicinity of the advancing 200-period simple moving average (SMA). The marginal upturn in the mid-Bollinger band and the flattening out of the bearish 50-period SMA are together signalling that positive sentiment [..]

Daily Market Comment – Inflation uncertainty makes for cautious start to week

Posted on May 24, 2021 at 9:28 am GMT

Dollar and stocks firmer, look to Fed speakers and data for momentum, inflation clues Euro softer after Lagarde comments, pound slips too Metal prices fall again after China warning, aussie struggles Inflation vs recovery theme Lingering fears of an upsurge in inflation weighed on sentiment at the start of this week’s trading amid a somewhat quieter day with several European markets closed for a public holiday. The clashing themes of the growing inflation threat and the strengthening global recovery have [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar licks wounds after rollercoaster week, tech stocks rebound

Posted on May 21, 2021 at 9:30 am GMT

Dollar skids towards 3-month lows as inflation and taper fears ease further Wall Street halts losing streak as lower yields lift tech stocks Commodities extend losses but gold holds near highs amid rotation out of crypto Dollar bruised by Fed taper false alarm Inflation and taper jitters subsided further on Friday following the mid-week scare when the Fed minutes revealed some worries about persisting high inflation and eagerness among some participants to begin the taper debate. However, markets have concluded [..]

Daily Market Comment – Fed hints at taper discussion soon but dollar struggles to catch a bid

Posted on May 20, 2021 at 9:11 am GMT

Fed minutes drop first hint of starting to ‘think about thinking about’ tapering US dollar and yields jump, but not much, before easing slightly Wall Street dips but pares losses, equity markets mixed today Not so relaxed about inflation after all? The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting dropped the first taper bombshell on Wednesday as some policymakers raised the prospect of beginning discussions on reducing bond purchases soon. According to the minutes, some participants thought “it might [..]

Daily Market Comment – Inflation fears creep in again ahead of Fed minutes

Posted on May 19, 2021 at 9:12 am GMT

Inflation worries spark US tech selloff, prompting caution ahead of Fed minutes US futures slip further but dollar slide eases on slight risk averse mood Loonie pulls back from highs on lower oil prices, eyes CPI data Inflation concerns won’t go away Market jitters about higher inflation resurfaced late on Tuesday, weighing on equities, as investors reassessed the outlook for earnings growth against a backdrop of higher costs and supply constraints. Big tech stocks with sky-high valuations were the biggest [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks pick up, dollar hurt and gold retains bullish tone  

Posted on May 18, 2021 at 1:15 pm GMT

Stocks recoup yesterday’s lost ground as dollar loses dominance US major indices are largely holding around yesterday’s highs after having reclaimed surrendered ground, emanating a slight pickup in risk appetite. That said the damage in the greenback is being felt across the board. The dollar index plunged below the 90.0 mark and has managed to stabilize around 89.70. The Fed’s dovish stance seems to be weighing on the greenback and sentiment appears to be subdued. Steady yields are not discouraging [..]

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US Open Note – US retail sales disappoint with minor impact on greenback

Posted on May 14, 2021 at 12:57 pm GMT

US retail sales dive below expectations The highlight of the day is the US retail sales, which were flat month-on-month in April, worse than the 1% increase that was expected versus an upwardly revised 10.7% surge in March. The US dollar index is retreating for the second consecutive day with weak momentum and unable to surpass the 91.00 mark. Dollar/yen is trading soft but above the 109.00 psychological level. The dollar could gain on a rise in US yields, while the slow recovery in the employment market may turn consumption [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar rally stalls despite strong jobless claims and PPI

Posted on May 13, 2021 at 1:10 pm GMT

Jobless claims fall again but dollar slips The producer price index and initial jobless claims out of the United States are in the spotlight today after last week’s disappointing jobs report and the surprise jump in inflation yesterday. US initial jobless claims declined to 473 thousand in the week ended May 7 versus 490K forecast after Wednesday’s inflation shock and the Federal Reserve was clear that the employment outlook will have to notably rise before there is a change in monetary policy. Annual inflation climbed to the [..]

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