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US Open Note – Risky currencies cheer on dollar weakness as stocks ease

Posted on June 7, 2021 at 12:54 pm GMT

Dollar fails to move up again after disappointing NFP The eagerly awaited NFP release for May on Friday was better than April’s figure, however, it disappointed investors. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% but the greenback finished the day sharply lower. Today, dollar/yen is continuing the selling interest with weaker momentum, trading near 109.40, while the US dollar index is recovering some losses. US stock futures were slightly on the downside after a positive day on Friday. In Washington, the two main parties are sticking to their different approaches on [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar left reeling after soft NFP; stocks mixed as US CPI around the corner

Posted on June 7, 2021 at 9:03 am GMT

US jobs report disappoints again, sending gains in US dollar and yields into reverse Wall Street buoyed by goldilocks recovery but cautious start to week as US CPI eyed Aussie wipes out losses but euro treads water ahead of ECB meeting NFP miss allays early Fed taper fears It was another disappointing Jobs Friday as predictions for May nonfarm payrolls were again off the mark. Payrolls rose by 559k against estimates of 650k – not as huge a miss as [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks muted near highs, dollar receives hawkish shot

Posted on June 2, 2021 at 2:44 pm GMT

Stocks risk appetite fades; dollar briefly gains an edge US major indices remained largely unchanged near their highs, while the dollar got a boost from the Fed tapering talk-jab, which saw the greenback regain the upper hand over some of its peers in the forex space. The dollar index extended yesterday’s price developments towards the 90.20 mark but the recent dollar strength may not prove so sustainable, especially as this week’s market sentiment is highlighted by NFP payrolls. The EUR/USD [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks improve after US holiday, dollar even ahead of US data

Posted on June 1, 2021 at 1:40 pm GMT

Stocks flash risk-on and dollar holds neutral; gold and oil hover near highs Risk-appetite seems to have accumulated after the US Memorial Day holiday with US major indices continuing to improve. The vulnerable dollar remains defenceless receiving no assistance from yields, with the 10-year yield at depressed levels around 1.55%. The dollar index is largely static around 89.85, underperforming against its forex peers. Although the US economy remains robust with rising consumption despite inflation picking up, the news today could [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 500 sees bullish drive evaporate

Posted on May 31, 2021 at 12:19 pm GMT

The US 500 stock index (Cash) is hovering around the 4,200 mark after recently improving from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The advancing SMAs are shielding the broader bullish outlook, while the flattening in the Ichimoku lines is indicating the lack of positive drive within the index. The short-term oscillators are reflecting a muted positive market mood. The MACD is above its red trigger line, slightly north of the zero threshold, while the RSI appears to be fading in [..]

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Weekly Comment – Has PCE inflation surge set the stage for next week’s NFP report?

Posted on May 28, 2021 at 1:56 pm GMT

USD got a big boost after the Fed’s favourite inflation metric shot up to 3.1% in May. However, the reaction in Treasuries has been more muted so the greenback’s rebound might not last very long. But there is the May jobs report coming up next Friday, which may yet change things. The highlights ahead: The dollar index hit a 2-week high after the jump in PCE inflation. Those gains could be extended if there is a strong rise in payrolls [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar continue to rise after core PCE price data

Posted on May 28, 2021 at 1:07 pm GMT

Core PCE data boost dollar The spotlight of the day is the release of the US core PCE price data. The figure for April rose to 3.1% y/y from 2.9% that was the expectation and 1.8% in March. This is the highest since August 1992 and above the Fed’s 2% target for the first time since 2018. PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation so traders watch it closely. Personal income increased to -13.1% from -20.9% previously, while personal [..]

Daily Market Comment – Yields rise ahead of US inflation data; pound jumps on rate hike hint

Posted on May 28, 2021 at 9:13 am GMT

Treasury yields advance on Biden’s $6 trillion budget plan; PCE inflation eyed next But modest gains for dollar as pound spikes after BoE’s Vlieghe hints at 2022 rate hike Stocks head for weekly gains, buoyed by US data and budget proposal, but tech lags Bond yields perk up as big spending back in focus US and global yields look set to end the week on a much firmer note than they started as the prospect of a massive federal budget [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks largely silent, dollar stumbles and yields provide no support

Posted on May 27, 2021 at 1:45 pm GMT

Stocks hint risk absence, dollar loses confidence, GDP and jobless claims draw focus The mood in markets seems to be subdued with major US indices remaining largely unchanged after today’s US GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The dollar seems to be playing defence as the 10-year yield dips to 1.53%. The dollar index is consolidating around the 90.00 mark. The pound has performed well, pivoting around $1.4100 and building strong traction on the dollar’s slight setback. The euro recouped earlier [..]

Daily Market Comment – Fed taper talk gathers momentum; dollar, stocks mixed as yields inch up

Posted on May 27, 2021 at 9:39 am GMT

Fed’s Quarles joins Clarida in signalling taper debate may start soon, but yields rise only slightly Prospect of less stimulus keeps dollar supported near one-week high as stocks struggle Taper signals thwart gold’s bid above $1,900/oz, Oil weighed by possible Iran supply boost No tantrum but markets take note of Fed shift Speculation that the Federal Reserve is edging closer to discussing a reduction in the pace of asset purchases dampened the market mood slightly on Thursday, though the lack [..]

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