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US Open Note – Yen still plunges; oil heads towards $82.00

Posted on October 15, 2021 at 1:07 pm GMT

Dollar index on mute today; US retail sales surprised The dollar index is hovering around 94.00 today, following two red days; however, dollar/yen is heading sharply higher towards a fresh three-year high around 114.20 due to a weakened Japanese yen. US retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% for September versus an upwardly revised 0.9% the prior month. A dovish Bank of Japan and growing 2-year U.S.-Japan rate differentials continue to be important factors. US futures are suggesting another positive day, after strong earnings releases. The single currency [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks buoyant, dollar flashes green and commodities resilient

Posted on October 14, 2021 at 1:55 pm GMT

Market sentiment intact after cheery jobless claims and miss in US PPI Sentiment remains upbeat as US stock futures are extending their recent buoyancy after a drop in longer-term yields. The Fed’s meeting minutes published yesterday echoed the recent hawkish rhetoric, signalling that the taper timeline is likely to begin before the end of the year and fuelling expectations of an earlier rate hike. However, investors are now eyeing a lower terminal rate as a result of earlier action by [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar remains stable after CPI and before FOMC Minutes

Posted on October 13, 2021 at 1:11 pm GMT

US CPI data jumps to 13-year high; dollar still firm The main event today was the release of the US CPI data ahead of the FOMC minutes later in the session. The annual inflation rate increased to a 13-year high of 5.4%, up from 5.3% in August and beyond market estimates of 5.3%. Consumer prices increased by 0.4% monthly, slightly exceeding predictions of 0.3%. The dollar seems to be keeping its recent gains. USD/JPY is holding below the 34-month high of 113.70. However, the euro is recouping some losses, trading near $1.1565, after [..]

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US Open Note – Sentiment hushed as durable dollar climbs with yields

Posted on October 12, 2021 at 2:29 pm GMT

Markets look for clues in JOLTS data and FOMC speeches The current market picture is one of stubborn inflation, rising yields, and expectations of a nearing Fed announcement of the taper timeline, specifically in the November FOMC meeting. Global growth has somewhat slowed as the consequences from the energy crisis hamper economies. That said, markets will try to extract clues from Fed speakers over the week especially after the disappointing NFP payrolls from Friday. Rising yields are aiding the earlier [..]

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US Open Note – Yen is in vertical fall; oil surpasses $82

Posted on October 11, 2021 at 12:57 pm GMT

Yen plunges driving dollar/yen sharply higher As a new week begins, the yen continues to plunge, pushed lower by a comeback in Asian stocks despite a rise in Japanese yields. Indeed, the 10-year JGB yield, which is currently at 0.093%, is on its way to 0.1%. The pound is currently the strongest, thanks to hawkish statements from Bank of England officials over the weekend. The Australian Dollar is closely following, and it is leading other commodity currencies higher as well. The US dollar index is weakening, [..]

Daily Market Comment – Markets perk up ahead of NFP but dollar holds ground

Posted on October 8, 2021 at 8:51 am GMT

Equities advance as inflation and energy fears ease further and US debt default averted But dollar edges up too as US yields climb to fresh highs Focus on US jobs report; will likely clear the path for Fed tapering Risk-on returns as energy panic subsides Another rebound on Wall Street on Thursday set the tone for global equities on Friday as risk appetite recovered further after a tumultuous few days. Stock markets were roiled earlier in the week as energy [..]

Daily Market Comment – Stocks rebound as gloom eases, oil and dollar pull back

Posted on October 7, 2021 at 9:34 am GMT

Sentiment improves after energy prices ease; US debt deal and Biden-Xi meeting help too Strong turnaround on Wall Street pulls global stocks higher but inflation threat not gone Aussie and kiwi lead rebound in FX but energy crisis fears still weigh on euro and pound Fears of an energy crunch subside, for now Markets were in a much more cheerful mood on Thursday as some of the gloom around a deepening global energy crisis, soaring inflation and never-ending supply disruptions [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks slip again, and greenback remains buoyant

Posted on October 6, 2021 at 1:43 pm GMT

Risk appetite absent as dollar resilient after ADP jobs data Risk sentiment remains somewhat suppressed today, while rising US yields and growing inflationary pressures have kept the advance in the reserve currency buoyant. Yesterday’s reading of 53.0 in the ISM services PMI’s employment component, may have assisted today’s upbeat ADP employment data, which showed private non-farm payrolls rising by 568K, beating the forecast of 425K. Stubbornly high inflation and a strong NFP number could provide fuel for the Fed to [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks static and yields fail to aid dollar

Posted on October 4, 2021 at 2:22 pm GMT

OPEC and global energy risks; Central Banks and NFP report are drivers of the week Market uncertainty lingers but the greenback’s haven appeal remains muted, as a global energy crisis threatens recoveries across the globe. Stocks are slightly on the back foot to start the week and the dollar remains feeble as the 10-year yield provides no support. Uncertainty out of China around a property developer giant and rising energy prices, with the UK being hit the worst, maybe weighing [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks struggle as upbeat dollar endures, gold recoups some losses

Posted on September 29, 2021 at 1:50 pm GMT

Market tone sparks concerns around high inflation and lagging growth Although the global energy crisis is putting pressure on economies resulting from China’s coal shortages, as well as rising natural gas prices and disruptions in oil production in the US, investors’ focus will shift towards the virtual panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking scheduled at 15:45 GMT, where central bank governors will participate. Yesterday, Chair Powell and Secretary Yellen touched on the fact that failing to raise [..]

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