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US Open Note – Dollar remains under pressure; euro hits wall at $1.20

Posted on April 16, 2021 at 12:49 pm GMT

Quieter end to the week; Morgan Stanley releases earnings A calmer session in the forex and stock markets is on the cards today. The US dollar index is struggling around the 91.60 level and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is acting as a crucial level. Dollar/yen rebounded off the 40-day SMA and the 108.40 support, pointing marginally up today. The futures of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones were pointing to a slightly positive open again after a new record high on Thursday. [..]

Daily Market Comment – Yields plunge, defy logic, after blowout data, but dollar steadies

Posted on April 16, 2021 at 9:06 am GMT

US economy firing on all cylinders as data keeps getting better But Treasury yields in surprise fall; dollar off lows as gold jumps to 7-week high Wall Street hits another record on upbeat earnings US recovery gathers steam but Treasuries in puzzling move The US economic outlook continued to brighten after retail sales surged almost 10% in March and jobless claims declined to a new post-pandemic low last week. The stellar data indicate America’s recovery is racing ahead of its [..]

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US Open Note – US retail sales surprises but dollar remains firm

Posted on April 15, 2021 at 1:11 pm GMT

US retail sales’ number stronger than expected The spotlight of the day is the US retail sales of March, which surprisingly increased to 9.8% m/m, surpassing the predictions of 5.9%, versus a contraction of 3% in February. The retail sales control group advanced to 6.9% from -3.4% before. Initial jobless claims came out too – filings for unemployment benefits – declining to 576k in the week ending April 10 from 769k before, the lowest level since the start of the coronavirus crisis in March 2020. The greenback [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar succumbs to Powell’s dovish tune; stocks mixed

Posted on April 15, 2021 at 9:13 am GMT

Powell reiterates that rate hikes are a long way off, pressing down on yields Dollar skids again but upside risk from retail sales and jobless claims Banks kick off US earnings with a bang but only Dow Jones rises Most dovish Fed Chair ever strikes again The US dollar slid and the 10-year Treasury yield held near three-week lows as Fed Chair Jerome Powell went out of his way to dampen fears of pre-emptive action to stem rising inflation. Speaking [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks soar; dollar continues to slip as US yields fall

Posted on April 14, 2021 at 12:30 pm GMT

US dollar back to losses A downside move in the US dollar and the significant climb in US stock futures are the major themes of the day. The question is if this recovery is being driven by the fall in US yields after the milder-than-feared US CPI data. The US dollar index is approaching the 91.60 level, while dollar/yen is in the process of completing the third straight negative day around 109.00. Futures tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones were pointing to a slight [..]

Daily Market Comment – Markets unrattled by US inflation jump, dollar slips, stocks hit record

Posted on April 14, 2021 at 8:54 am GMT

Bond markets shrug off surge in US inflation as yields fall, dragging dollar to 3½-week low But stocks impervious as Tesla drives S&P 500 to fresh record; bank earnings coming up Dollar plunge lifts rivals, yen finds little love despite J&J vaccine woes No panic after US inflation shoots higher Markets appeared to brush aside fears of higher inflation after the much-anticipated CPI data out of the United States failed to spark a huge reaction on Tuesday. The US consumer [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks consolidate at highs, gold adopts negative trajectory

Posted on April 13, 2021 at 12:25 pm GMT

Stocks composed and dollar strengthens heading for US inflation data Stocks are suspended around their highs as market jitters are apparent as we near the release of the upcoming US inflation figures. Treasury yields and inflation remain some of the key drivers for market sentiment and in diagnosing the recovery pace. Improving yields and their bolstering effect on the greenback could be enhanced should the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March – due to be released at 13:30 GMT [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar lacks direction amid market calm; US stocks freeze

Posted on April 12, 2021 at 1:00 pm GMT

Dollar flattens in absence of data today; pound rises A calm day is on the table as dollar/yen is stable around 109.35 and the US dollar index is moving horizontally and marginally below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as the US data in the next days may drive the greenback even higher. The US Congress is starting to work on the infrastructure package with President Biden meeting centrist lawmakers from both parties. It is noteworthy that the US fiscal stimulus will be [..]

Daily Market Comment – Firm start for dollar after upbeat Powell; stocks cautious ahead of earnings

Posted on April 12, 2021 at 9:13 am GMT

Dollar edges up after uptick in US producer prices and a more positive Powell But yields ease slightly ahead of huge Treasury auctions Equities weighed by earnings caution and fears of China policy tightening Dollar tries to put bad week behind it It was a relatively calm start to the week in FX markets, but the momentum seems to be clearly behind the US dollar following a jump in US producer prices on Friday as well as Fed Chair Powell [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 30 index takes a breather around 123.6% Fibonacci extension

Posted on April 8, 2021 at 3:44 pm GMT

The US 30 stock index (Cash) is currently edging sideways around the mostly neutral red Tenkan-sen line however, the bullish bias remains potent. The climbing simple moving averages (SMAs) are safeguarding the bigger bullish structure, while the relatively stable Ichimoku lines are reflecting a period of paused directional drive. The short-term oscillators are transmitting signals of waning positive momentum; however this is not sufficient to suggest a more aggressive pullback in the price. The MACD is still in the bullish [..]

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