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US Open Note – Dollar consolidates losses as jobs day looms; stocks mildly up

Posted on September 2, 2021 at 1:37 pm GMT

US Jobless claims pin fresh low as expected The downbeat ADP private jobs survey and the dip in the employment component of the ISM manufacturing PMI created plenty of interest in the US initial jobless claims numbers on Thursday as anxiety continues to grow about whether Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will meet the criteria for the Fed’s bond tapering plans to start sooner rather than later. Encouragingly, though, the data presented a more or less expected outcome, showing an increase of [..]

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US Open Note – Downbeat ADP jobs data drive dollar lower; Wall Street opens higher

Posted on September 1, 2021 at 1:35 pm GMT

Global stocks have a good start to September Global markets had a solid start to September, with European equities following their Asian rivals higher and crawling back towards their recent record highs despite fears of a growth slowdown, the troubling supply shortages, and the scarcity of qualified employees, which keep production costs elevated. Of course, businesses can always raise margins and transfer the increased costs to consumers, making cost pressures less problematic as long as consumption remains solid and central [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar set for positive monthly close despite weakness; stocks falter

Posted on August 31, 2021 at 1:36 pm GMT

Dollar falls to fresh lows, but outlook still promising The US dollar was down across the board on Tuesday, retreating below its post-Jackson Hole low earlier in the day to trade at 92.36 against a basket of six major currencies as investors remained in the dark about when the Fed will officially kick off its bond tapering phase. The outlook, however, is still promising for the greenback, which is set to close the month in the positive territory since the [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar flat as Powell continues to feed Wall Street bulls

Posted on August 30, 2021 at 1:58 pm GMT

Dollar remains muted after Friday’s pullback The delta wave uncertainty forced Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to play it safe during Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, setting no timeline and expressing no rush for winding down stimulus despite flagging that bond tapering will start this year. His dovish remarks sent the dollar index lower but within the 92.00 territory as the euro and the pound found the chance to steal some ground on the news. ECB’s Villeroy signals PEPP reduction, but [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar steady as Fed speakers play down Jackson Hole fireworks

Posted on August 26, 2021 at 1:25 pm GMT

Waiting for Jackson Hole symposium FX markets hardly found any inspiration to move during Thursday’s European session as investors were eagerly waiting for the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. The economic conference, which invites central bankers, finance ministers and important investors from around the world once in a year, will start today in a virtual form, carrying the theme “Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy”. The full agenda scheduled will be released at 0000 GMT today, but the biggest highlight [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 100 index slides, but uptrend still in play

Posted on August 19, 2021 at 2:15 pm GMT

The US 100 index (Cash) took some fire in recent sessions, sliding from the record high of 15,182 before encountering some support near the 50-day moving average (MA) currently at 14,720 and subsequently rebounding a little. The decline in the market has been swift, but not enough to threaten the bigger uptrend. Short-term oscillators detect negative momentum, reflecting the latest decline in the price. The RSI has dropped below 50 and is pointing lower, and while the MACD is still [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar bulls cheer on Nonfarm Payrolls; loonie resilient after Canadian jobs miss

Posted on August 6, 2021 at 1:21 pm GMT

Dollar, Treasury yields gear up after bullish NFP release The US dollar was in neutral mode until the eagerly awaited nonfarm payrolls report brought the bulls back into play. Employment growth spiked to 943k and above the forecast of 870k, consequently pressing the unemployment rate to 5.4% – the lowest since the 2020 pickup –versus the 5.7% anticipated. Average hourly earnings were another positive surprise, growing faster by 4.0% y/y compared to 3.9% expected. Dollar/yen bounced immediately to peak slightly [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar unflattered by jobless claims; BoE moves closer to monetary tightening

Posted on August 5, 2021 at 1:45 pm GMT

Continuing jobless claims beat estimates but dollar faces constraints  Predicting progress in the US labor market could be a tricky job for analysts in the next few months after recent comments from Fed speakers highlighted that a significant recovery in the US labor market is a prerequisite for the Fed to start winding down its government bond purchases. US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 31 came in line with analysts’ expectations, showing a moderate decline to 385k [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar fizzles despite tapering hints; European stocks at fresh record highs

Posted on August 3, 2021 at 1:08 pm GMT

Delta fears  The rest of the day will be quiet in terms of data releases but there are enough things happening globally to keep investors busy in the next sessions. The delta outbreak has stretched to China, which has been out of the Covid headlines for a while, forcing authorities to halt flights and other public transports towards Beijing. With the second biggest economy of the world teaming up with other Asian economies to fight against the troubling new Covid [..]

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US Open Note – Stock indices to claim monthly gains despite jitters; dollar on the backfoot

Posted on July 30, 2021 at 1:18 pm GMT

Stock indices head for a monthly gain The month of July started with the impression that plans of monetary tightening could get more into fashion, adding a solid footing under currencies, while the earnings season could further brighten the outlook for stocks despite the inflaming virus numbers. Although the above backdrop has not entirely faded yet, the last week of the month found investors having second thoughts about how soon the Fed would wrap up its bond tapering plans as [..]

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