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US Open Note – Stocks oscillate near record highs; commodity currencies hold firm

Posted on October 20, 2021 at 1:50 pm GMT

Stocks consolidate gains as earnings surprise Stock markets have been relatively flat marginally below their summer record highs during early US trading hours on Thursday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 consolidating last week’s impressive rebound and US stock indices switching between gains and losses. While investors were almost convinced that higher input costs, labor shortages and lack of raw materials would raise serious concerns among companies, the earnings season has surprisingly been a tailwind to equity markets so far, showing [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks turn green on temporary risk on; antipodeans outperform

Posted on October 7, 2021 at 1:56 pm GMT

Risk-on trading returns Risk-on sentiment continued to navigate markets during late European trading hours on Thursday as worries about the energy crisis took the back seat for the time being and the risk of a government default in the US was expected to be ease today after Democrats showed willingness to raise the debt ceiling to December on the Senate floor. Following complaints that Russia is holding back its energy supplies, mainly from Europe, Vladimir Putin said that his government [..]

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US Open Note – Equities heal wounds but risks still in play; RBNZ in focus

Posted on October 5, 2021 at 1:50 pm GMT

Stock markets enjoy some recovery, but not for long While central banks keep talking about a transitory inflation, investors seem to walk on thin ice, wondering whether the combination of supply chain disruptions, rocketing energy prices and labor shortages need to be taken more seriously as initial symptoms of stagflation. Although there is no convincing evidence of stagflation yet, headlines have been more depressing than cheerful around business struggles lately, and that was enough to ghost traders and knock down [..]

Daily Market Comment – Wall Street calms down after sharp selloff

Posted on September 29, 2021 at 8:53 am GMT

Rising rates and inflation worries torment stock markets Sterling crumbles despite mounting bets for BoE rate hikes Japan gets a new prime minister, China releases PMIs Yields go into overdrive Stock markets continue to dance to the tune of rising bond yields. It is not so much the magnitude of the spike in yields but rather the speed of this move that has caught investors by surprise. The burning question is what’s driving this sharp repricing in interest rates – [..]

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US Open Note – Evergrande ghost haunts markets; euro weaker ahead of German election

Posted on September 24, 2021 at 1:25 pm GMT

Evergrande’s drama continues Evergrande’s drama continued to spook markets on Friday as investors had no clue whether China’s giant property developer, which owes a debt larger than the external debt many entire countries face, had successfully met Thursday’s $83.5 million coupon payment. The company now has a 30-day grace period before it declares a default, and it will not be the first time a Chinese company uses this period to arrange its obligations. Though, it’s historically proven that the wait [..]

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US Open Note – BoE cheers pound bulls; stocks maintain post-Fed advances 

Posted on September 23, 2021 at 1:42 pm GMT

BoE sends some bullish shockwaves The Bank of England (BoE) left its policy settings unchanged as expected with a vote of 9-0 to keep interest rates steady at 0.1% on Thursday but provided some hawkish tilts for the pound to distance itself from the key 1.3600 support level and drift above 1.3700 against the US dollar. The BoE committee judged that despite some uncertainties that remain to be tacked, price developments over the forecast period have strengthened the case for [..]

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US Open Note – China’s potential domino effect spooks stocks; dollar up

Posted on September 20, 2021 at 1:15 pm GMT

Stocks plunge as China’s Evergrande causes risk-off While the week was supposed to be all about the Fed and its tapering signals, increasing fears that Beijing will let its giant property developer Evergrande default on its $305 billion liabilities over a looming deadline for payment obligations brought another headache to global markets on Monday. The jitters popped up at a time when investors are growing sensitive to high valuations in stock markets and monitor signs of a slowing global economic [..]

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US Open Note – Wall Street could test bearish weekly close; loonie bulls gear after mixed jobs data

Posted on September 10, 2021 at 1:47 pm GMT

US-China relations hit the wires An overnight phone call between the US president Joe Biden and China’s leader Xi Jinping occupied the media on Friday. Not because of the market reaction it caused since that was negligible, but because of the potential positive implications the dialogue could have on the broken US-China trade relations in the future. Although both presidents are focused on managing pandemic headwinds at home, the US trade deficit with China has worsened to fresh highs since the last conversation in [..]

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US Open Note – Euro unchanged as ECB meets PEPP expectations; dollar stable

Posted on September 9, 2021 at 1:16 pm GMT

Taper – ECB style Starting bond tapering could be an unwise decision when the pandemic is still propagating worldwide through its threatening variants. However, setting a route for the train to run when the right time comes could provide some relief and reduce the case of a risky market reaction, especially as inflation is showing no convincing signs of abating. With economic growth remaining fragile and inflation hovering at a 10-year high of 3.0% y/y in the Eurozone, the ECB decided [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar in tears after NFP miss; euro spikes above 1.1900

Posted on September 3, 2021 at 1:54 pm GMT

Nonfarm payrolls miss forecasts; dollar down US nonfarm payrolls took center stage on Friday, presenting an employment growth of 273k for the month of August, which was way below the forecast of 750k but still enough to press the unemployment rate to 5.2% as expected, and let average hourly wages to spike faster than analysts anticipated by 4.3% m/m. Despite some early warnings from the private ADP employment report and the ISM PMI business readings this week, the data spooked [..]

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