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US Open Note – King dollar awaits FOMC minutes; stocks in the doldrums

Posted on April 6, 2022 at 12:46 pm GMT

FOMC minutes under the spotlight Inflation jitters are weighing far more heavily on central banks’ thinking now, pressing policymakers to expedite their tightening plans further even if the war in Ukraine threatens to drag the global economy into a recession. The second most important FOMC board member, Lael Brainard, who is considered a dove, dropped her patient tone late on Tuesday, stating that the Fed could begin the balance sheet reduction at a faster pace than previously expected as soon [..]

Daily Market Comment – Fed warning turbocharges dollar, sinks equities

Posted on April 6, 2022 at 8:34 am GMT

Fed’s second-in-command warns of “stronger action” to cool inflation Dollar marches higher, stock markets drop, but gold stays rangebound  Cable tracks equities lower, FOMC minutes coming up next Fed turbulence The Federal Reserve injected a fresh dose of volatility into financial markets yesterday, after its second-in-command warned of aggressive policy action to rein in inflationary forces. Lael Brainard, who is waiting Senate confirmation to become Vice Chair and typically errs on the side of caution, put investors on red alert [..]

Daily Market Comment – Euro pinned down by threat of new sanctions

Posted on April 5, 2022 at 9:02 am GMT

Europe considers new sanctions against Moscow after atrocities  Euro under pressure, oil prices recover despite China lockdowns Aussie shoots up after RBA, tech shares lead Wall Street higher Russian embargo?  The prospect of another round of economic sanctions against Moscow is back on the table following reports of atrocities against civilians in Ukraine. The US Treasury has already made its move – cutting off the Russian government from using its ‘frozen’ US dollar reserves for making coupon payments on bonds.  [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 100 index in battle with 200-SMA; bias bullish

Posted on April 5, 2022 at 7:47 am GMT

The US 100 stock index (cash) returned to test its flattening 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,180 after its mild three-day sell-off paused at 14,800. The tech-driven index has completed three bullish weeks, retracing more than half of its previous downtrend, and another one is in progress as the 20- and 50-day SMAs are marking a positive crossover. Despite their recent deceleration, the momentum indicators keep fluctuating within the bullish area, with the RSI remaining comfortably above 50 and [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar gains and US futures mixed amid fading peace hopes

Posted on March 31, 2022 at 1:13 pm GMT

Market sentiment remains tentative as investors eye ceasefire negotiations The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are set to resume on Friday via video conference, but yesterday’s positive signs of progress seem to have completely evaporated. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated earlier today that despite Russia’s announcement to scale down its military operations and withdraw troops from Kyiv, its army has been regrouping and is ready to launch another wave of attacks. Additionally, a Ukrainian negotiator claimed that a peace agreement always involves [..]

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US Open Note – US futures gain but dollar slips on signs of progress in peace talks

Posted on March 29, 2022 at 1:06 pm GMT

Dollar retreats as risk sentiment improves; euro edges higher The ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, alongside Japan’s sanctions on Russia are the key drivers for the markets today. In the first front, there were some major positive developments, which triggered a mild risk-on sentiment in the markets. Specifically, the Ukrainian side suggested a new security guarantee, with the Russians responding that they will be scrutinizing it, acknowledging that the new talks under these proposals are at least constructive. Later, the [..]

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US Open Note – US data enhance dollar as NATO summit begins

Posted on March 24, 2022 at 2:50 pm GMT

NATO summit could set the next phase in geopolitical crisis World leaders are attending a series of summits in Brussels on Thursday, as NATO, the G7 and European Union hold crisis talks over Ukraine. US President Joe Biden will take part in all three meetings amid a backdrop of destruction in Ukraine, frozen global business transactions, and rising energy and fertilizer prices. The ongoing Ukrainian geopolitical crisis is already developing into another inflation nightmare thanks to the sanctions war, and [..]

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US Open Note – Pound unsurprised by Sunak’s mini budget; stocks moderately down

Posted on March 23, 2022 at 1:58 pm GMT

Gold steady, bond yields decelerate The military disaster in Ukraine remained mainly unchanged on Thursday, making investors wonder whether the ongoing talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials are indeed aiming for a ceasefire or are just a channel to persuade the opposite side to give up on its conditions. The next landmark on the geopolitical crisis will be the extraordinary NATO summit in Brussels on Thursday at the level of Heads of states and Governments, including the group of Seven and the [..]

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Technical Analysis – US 100 index rangebound after upside move stalls

Posted on March 22, 2022 at 2:21 pm GMT

The US 100 stock index (cash) has been recovering on the four-hour chart, managing to erase some of its recent decline. Although the price has been moving sideways in the last few sessions, the ascending 50-period simple moving average (SMA) is closing the gap with the 200-period SMA, where a potential crossover could reinforce the case of a sustained uptrend. The momentum indicators suggest that bullish forces remain active. The stochastic oscillator is marching higher after posting a bullish cross, while the [..]

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US Open Note – Pound corrects lower after dovish BoE; commodities up again

Posted on March 17, 2022 at 2:29 pm GMT

Dollar weaker after hawkish FOMC The US dollar continued to trade lower against a basket of major currencies for the third consecutive day to reach 98.19 despite the strong hawkish message from the FOMC policy meeting late on Wednesday. The Fed acknowledged the Ukrainian geopolitical risks and slashed its growth projections by almost half to 2.8% for 2022 but raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage as widely expected. Strikingly, however, it signaled six more rate increases this year and pledged [..]

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