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Global stocks advance; gold accelerates ahead of Powell’s speech – US Open Note

Posted on October 22, 2021 at 1:21 pm GMT

Evergrande’s default delayed  While everyone was convinced that the endgame for Evergrande was a certainty, China’s indebted property giant made a last-minute $84mln interest payment overnight, avoiding an official default ahead of its 30-day deadline expiring this weekend. The news brought some risk-on back into play on Friday, propping stock markets and underpinning commodity-dependent currencies such as the aussie and the kiwi, though whether the company can only delay an imminent default remains to be seen. For the time being, [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks oscillate near record highs; commodity currencies hold firm

Posted on October 20, 2021 at 1:50 pm GMT

Stocks consolidate gains as earnings surprise Stock markets have been relatively flat marginally below their summer record highs during early US trading hours on Thursday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 consolidating last week’s impressive rebound and US stock indices switching between gains and losses. While investors were almost convinced that higher input costs, labor shortages and lack of raw materials would raise serious concerns among companies, the earnings season has surprisingly been a tailwind to equity markets so far, showing [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks buoyant, dollar slips and gold improves

Posted on October 19, 2021 at 1:55 pm GMT

Sentiment upbeat as US yields retreat; FOMC speakers to draw focus The recent climb in US stocks appears supported by gains in the technology and communication service sectors. Moreover, expectations of strong earnings and the stabilization in longer-term yields, after a drop, are not aiding the greenback. Despite the pickup in sentiment, inflationary concerns and the energy crisis seem to be risks that may drag on for a while longer. The dollar index surrendered ground from the 94.00 mark down [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar slumps, stocks advance amid earnings optimism

Posted on October 19, 2021 at 9:08 am GMT

US tech rebound leads global stocks higher as earnings season about to heat up Dollar plunges as mood improves and Fed seen falling behind in the tightening race Riskier currencies power ahead as US yields fall back Focus on earnings as jitters subside Worries about soaring inflation, supply-chain chaos and slowing growth in China were put on the back burner on Tuesday as investors turned their attention on the Q3 earnings season that kicked off last week with a bang. [..]

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US Open Note – Inflation risks and the rate conundrum, dollar hangs in there

Posted on October 18, 2021 at 1:57 pm GMT

Risk evaporates but US Industrial production disappoints Market sentiment softened and the dollar remained subdued on the first trading day of week. Expectations that the Fed is preparing to taper is keeping the reserve currency afloat as well as pushing up the 10-year yield close to 1.62%. Inflation risks seem to be pushing central banks to take action, as markets are pricing in interest rate hikes in the later parts of 2022. US industrial production in September was much weaker, [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold erases gains but neutral structure has still a bullish tilt

Posted on October 18, 2021 at 7:52 am GMT

Gold saw its bullish fortunes evaporating near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1,800 level last week, with the price erasing its latest exciting rebound to meet the 20-day SMA at 1,759. Although the quick pullback was not enough to dissolve the broader neutral structure formed between the 1,835 and 1,721 boundaries, negative risks have not entirely faded yet.  Particularly, with the RSI set to cross below its 50 neutral level, the MACD hovering within a narrow range marginally [..]

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US Open Note – Yen still plunges; oil heads towards $82.00

Posted on October 15, 2021 at 1:07 pm GMT

Dollar index on mute today; US retail sales surprised The dollar index is hovering around 94.00 today, following two red days; however, dollar/yen is heading sharply higher towards a fresh three-year high around 114.20 due to a weakened Japanese yen. US retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% for September versus an upwardly revised 0.9% the prior month. A dovish Bank of Japan and growing 2-year U.S.-Japan rate differentials continue to be important factors. US futures are suggesting another positive day, after strong earnings releases. The single currency [..]

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Technical Analysis – Gold flirts with the 1,800 barrier

Posted on October 14, 2021 at 3:20 pm GMT

Gold is currently challenging the 1,800 handle after acquiring aggressive positive impetus on the back of a weaker greenback and a fall in longer-term bond yields. In spite of the recent bullish crossover of the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) by the rising 50-period SMA, the precious metal’s overall picture remains mostly neutral. The Ichimoku lines are demonstrating a pause in the positive drive, while the short-term oscillators reflecting upside momentum have somewhat stalled. The MACD’s ascent above its red [..]

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US Open Note – Stocks buoyant, dollar flashes green and commodities resilient

Posted on October 14, 2021 at 1:55 pm GMT

Market sentiment intact after cheery jobless claims and miss in US PPI Sentiment remains upbeat as US stock futures are extending their recent buoyancy after a drop in longer-term yields. The Fed’s meeting minutes published yesterday echoed the recent hawkish rhetoric, signalling that the taper timeline is likely to begin before the end of the year and fuelling expectations of an earlier rate hike. However, investors are now eyeing a lower terminal rate as a result of earlier action by [..]

Daily Market Comment – Stocks and gold recover as Fed path gets recalibrated

Posted on October 14, 2021 at 9:08 am GMT

Expectations of earlier but shallower Fed rate path revive optimism Dollar retreats, stocks and gold recover as long-dated yields drop China’s factory prices soar, central bank speakers in focus  Fed repricing  Investors are having second thoughts about the structure of the Fed’s rate hike cycle. The latest moves in the bond market suggest the FOMC will pull the hike trigger early to tame inflation but the final destination in rates won’t be very high. In other words, an earlier but [..]

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