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US Open Note – US Treasury yields tick higher; dollar around 107.00

Posted on March 1, 2021 at 2:10 pm GMT

US dollar back to notable gains A strong upside move in the US dollar and in US bond yields are the major themes of the day. The question is if this recovery is being driven by risk-off impulses or from expectation of Fed tightening. The US dollar index is approaching the 91.00 level, while dollar/yen is in the process to complete the fifth straight positive day around 107.00. The futures of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones were pointing to a slight positive open after negative sessions. On [..]

Daily Market Comment – Stocks edge up, dollar eases as bond markets stabilize

Posted on March 1, 2021 at 9:42 am GMT

Yields fall back as selloff in government bonds cools, but is the panic over? Stocks get off to firm start as vaccine and stimulus hopes still at play Risky currencies pare losses as dollar recedes from highs, gold bounces off lows Calm returns to bond markets, but maybe not for long Long-dated Treasury yields started the new month well off their one-year highs from last week as a bit of calm was restored in battered bond markets. The 10-year yield [..]

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US Open Note – Dollar knocks down riskier currencies; House stimulus vote looming

Posted on February 26, 2021 at 2:15 pm GMT

Central banks react after yield rally It was a turbulent week for markets as the rapid rise in global bond yields triggered profit taking on stocks and harmed traditional safe-haven currencies, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to close the week with considerable losses, though hold within the neutral-positive territory in monthly terms. Although investors got assurances from the Fed and other central banks that any tightening in monetary policy was long in the future, the yield rally over [..]

Week Ahead – NFP to guide yields, RBA could be a yawn, pound turns to UK budget for boost

Posted on February 26, 2021 at 2:03 pm GMT

As a new month starts, investors will have their eyes locked on the latest nonfarm payrolls numbers out of the United States amid an accelerating selloff in bond markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting will be the only central bank gathering of the week but is unlikely to provide much excitement. Canadian Q4 GDP figures are also on the agenda but the upcoming output meeting by OPEC+ might matter more for the oil-dependent loonie. It will be somewhat [..]

Daily Market Comment – Bond market meltdown devastates stocks, resurrects dollar

Posted on February 26, 2021 at 9:26 am GMT

Carnage in bonds sends US yields flying, equities in a world of pain Dollar comes back from the dead, commodity FX and pound lose altitude Just a disastrous bond auction or a harbinger of bigger moves? Near-disaster in bonds infects everything else What started out as a relatively calm session evolved into a near-apocalypse in the bond market on Thursday, sending shockwaves across every other asset class. Investors are dumping government bonds at a stunning pace, pushing the yields on [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD sinks around 1.39 after steep losses

Posted on February 26, 2021 at 7:23 am GMT

GBPUSD retreated quickly from its 34-month high of 1.4235, achieved on Tuesday, creating a steep bearish movement around the 1.3900 handle. The price sank beneath the 20- and 40-period simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour chart, entering the Ichimoku cloud. The RSI is diving in the negative territory, while MACD is declining below its trigger and zero lines.   Further losses could take the market until the 100-period SMA currently at 1.3890 before testing the 1.3830 support. If traders [..]

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US Open Note – Bond yields shine at fresh highs as US futures struggle; euro bulls gear up

Posted on February 25, 2021 at 2:11 pm GMT

Bond yields shrug of Powell’s comments; US future point to the downside Nothing could stop bond yields from rising on Thursday, not even the Fed chief Powell, who once again told lawmakers of the House of Representatives on Wednesday that a persistent rapid inflation break above 2.0% will not be the case for the next three years. While his remarks assured investors, who were front-running the Fed, that the current ultra-lose monetary policy is here to stay, the US 10-year [..]

Daily Market Comment – Stocks lick wounds, dollar retreats as Fed restores calm

Posted on February 25, 2021 at 9:43 am GMT

Stocks claw back losses amid Fed reassurances and vaccine news Commodity currencies continue to rampage, yen and franc in agony Pound loses some steam after Chancellor warns of tax increases Fed tranquilizer gun restores calm All that was needed to restore order in financial markets were some soothing words from the Fed’s top brass and some encouraging vaccine news. Wall Street came back to life after the Fed chief and vice-chief reassured investors that they won’t overreact to any inflation [..]

Global yields catch up with US Treasuries; has the dollar’s rebound been thwarted? – Special Report

Posted on February 24, 2021 at 2:54 pm GMT

A battle of the yields is underway as the returns on long-dated government bonds recover to pre-pandemic levels, undermining the allure of riskier assets such as stocks. The rally in bond yields is being led by US Treasuries, as the American economy shines the brightest in the Western sphere. However, while the US dollar got an unexpected leg up from the early stages of the surge in Treasury yields, the strengthening vaccine-led optimism is now spreading to other parts of [..]

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US Open Note – Investors give up on traditional safe havens; pound pulls from 1.4235 peak

Posted on February 24, 2021 at 2:08 pm GMT

Stocks heal slightly after Tuesday’s plunge The vaccine euphoria coupled with reopening guidelines and stimulus pledges from several countries continued to lead market sentiment on Wednesday, boosting the appetite for risk-on trades. Fed chief Powell characterized the bond rally as “a statement of confidence” during his virtual semi-annual testimony in the Senate on Tuesday, and once again, reaffirmed that the current accommodative monetary policy will remain in play as long as it is needed, leaving the 10-year Treasury yield elevated [..]

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