FX Daily Outlook
Posted on May 20, 2015 at 7:54 am GMT[..]
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Expectations of the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2006 has dominated the markets in recent months as US economic fundamentals continue to improve. But as the deeper-than-expected slowdown in first quarter growth has led to a batch of mixed data, analysts have been split on when the rate rise will come. Unemployment data is one of the key indicators that the Fed looks at and the fall in the unemployment rate since the start [..]
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The US Federal Reserve downgraded its outlook for the US economy in its FOMC statement yesterday. According to the statement, “economic growth slowed during the winter months” but the Open Market Committee still expects economic activity to expand at a moderate pace and that the weakness was due to transitory factors. The Fed reaffirmed its position that the current target range for the federal funds rate remains at appropriate levels, and that labor market conditions need to improve further and [..]
The US dollar popped higher against most major counterparts after the Federal Reserve released its monetary statement on Wednesday following a two-day meeting of its policy-setting committee. There were no surprises and the overall tone of the statement was somewhat flat, and mostly in line with market expectations. The Fed acknowledged weakness in the US economy but stressed that it was due to transitory factors (such as the weather). This comment sent the dollar higher. It surged against the yen [..]
The minutes from the Fed’s March policy meeting were closely examined by the market for signals on when interest rates in the United States will likely go up – a question that is one of the main focuses of financial markets currently. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on March 17-18 and removed reference to “patience” from its statement in tightening monetary policy. The minutes showed a Fed that was divided, as on the one hand “several” FOMC participants [..]
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The US dollar managed to gain against the euro during today’s Asian session, as it extended gains from the previous day. The euro was pushed under the 1.08 mark to trade as low as 1.0749 as traders tried to interpret statements from two Fed officials the previous day as well as the minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting that were released late in the US session. The speeches of Fed Governors Dudley and Powell suggested that there [..]
The market’s main focus is on the FOMC minutes later tonight, leading to dollar weakness and a reversal of Tuesday’s gains during the European session. Despite broad dollar weakness, the euro was unable to resurface above 1.0900 even though Eurozone retail sales data were in line with expectations. The figures showed a lower reading in February, dropping 0.2% on a month-on-month basis, versus January’s 1.1% rise. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 3.0% also in line with forecasts. Other [..]
The coming week will be starting on a quiet note as the major markets in Europe will be closed for the Easter break. This includes Germany, France and the UK, as well as Australia and New Zealand in Asia. The main data coming out on Monday, April 6 is the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US, although a speech by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will also be interesting to watch for any possible changes to the Bank’s [..]
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