FX Daily Outlook| 29-10-15
Posted on October 29, 2015 at 10:39 am GMT[..]
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Asian Session – Dollar up on FOMC statement but eases against yen on strong Japan data
Posted on October 29, 2015 at 8:33 am GMTThe US Federal Reserve surprised markets on Wednesday when the FOMC statement sounded more hawkish than what analysts were expecting. The statement specifically referred to what information the committee will be assessing at its next meeting, suggesting that a move in December is a strong possibility. The dollar index jumped by 1.5% after the statement as many investors had ruled out a rate rise this year. In the statement, the FOMC said that the risks to economic outlook and the [..]
Fed hints at possible December rate hike; dollar jumps
Posted on October 28, 2015 at 7:28 pm GMTThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two-day meeting today and as expected, voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged with one dissenter voting against the decision. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker once again voted to raise rates by 0.25% but the FOMC’s statement suggests he may not be outvoted at the next meeting. The committee sounded more upbeat than at the previous meeting, noting that the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market [..]
European Session – Dollar weak ahead of Fed, oil and gold rally
Posted on October 28, 2015 at 4:26 pm GMTThe US dollar remained weak against most major currencies due to low demand ahead of the FOMC policy announcement due later in the day. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged near zero percent. A recent spate of weak US economic data has led to most economists forecasting that the US central bank would hold fire at this meeting and keep rates where they have been since 2008. The dollar was steady against the yen, trading above [..]
Asian Session – Aussie falls as soft inflation increases chance of RBA rate cut, focus turns to Fed
Posted on October 28, 2015 at 8:26 am GMTThe Australian dollar was one of the worst performing currencies in Wednesday’s Asian session after it plunged following data showing the weakest pace of inflation in Australia in three years. Headline CPI came in at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September compared to 0.7% in the prior quarter. This missed forecasts of a 0.7% number. Meanwhile, compared to a year earlier, CPI rose 1.5%, below expectations for a 1.7% rise. The Australian dollar fell sharply against the US [..]
US durable goods orders fall again in September
Posted on October 27, 2015 at 2:15 pm GMTOrders for durable goods – an important gauge of business spending in the US – fell by 1.2% month-on-month in September, slightly above estimates of a 1.5% drop. This follows a downwardly revised figure of -3.0% in August. Excluding transport equipment, durable goods orders fell by a smaller 0.4%, though this was sharply below forecasts that it would stay unchanged. The core rate was also subject to a downward revision for August, which was lowered to -0.9% from 0.0%. Another [..]
FX Daily Outlook| 27-10-15
Posted on October 27, 2015 at 10:38 am GMT[..]
Key central bank meetings – especially the Fed’s – to have big FX impact
Posted on October 27, 2015 at 10:23 am GMTThe meeting of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee on Wednesday as well as the Bank of Japan’s on Friday could have major implications for foreign exchange markets. It should be pointed out of course that neither central bank is expected to act according to the majority of analysts. Regarding the Fed, it is clearer that no move is anticipated, whereas for the Bank of Japan, the odds of something happening are higher. Turning attention to the Fed, the ‘will they [..]
Week Ahead – All eyes on FOMC, BoJ and RBNZ meetings but Q3 GDP also in focus
Posted on October 23, 2015 at 12:27 pm GMTThe coming week is set to be a busy one both in terms of data and for central bank activity. The Fed will hold its October FOMC meeting, while the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also meet. The key indicators to watch for will be US and UK third quarter GDP and Eurozone flash CPI. Starting the week are the German IFO survey for business confidence and expectations. It will be interesting to see how [..]
Mixed signals from Fed leaves year end rate rise in the balance
Posted on October 21, 2015 at 12:43 pm GMTAs Fed policymakers round up their speeches ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, doubts remain whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the year end. After spending much of the year stressing the Fed’s data dependency on the timing of any decision to increase rates, Fed policymakers have yet to convince markets that the US is ready for lift-off. In the summer, a tightening labor market had pointed to a September increase in the Fed’s funds rate, but [..]
