All Articles Tagged - Fed

US personal consumption slows in October but capital goods spending jumps

Posted on November 26, 2015 at 12:35 pm GMT

A batch of key indicators for the US economy out on Wednesday showed that consumers are saving more and spending less even as incomes rise. However, there are signs that the manufacturing sector could be coming out of the doldrums as spending on capital goods increased in October for the first time in three months. Personal income rose by 0.4% m/m in October, in line with consensus estimates and faster than September’s upwardly revised 0.2% gain. The increase was led [..]

FX Daily Outlook| 19-11-15

Posted on November 19, 2015 at 9:36 am GMT

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European Session – Euro bounces off 7-month lows as dollar stalls ahead of Fed minutes

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 3:47 pm GMT

Currency markets were relatively quiet during Wednesday’s European session in the absence of major economic data and investors are being cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes later in the US session. European equity markets were weak, particularly German stocks, which helped the euro to bounce back against the dollar. The euro recovered from an Asian session low of 1.0630 versus the dollar to reach a European session high of 1.0691 where upside momentum fizzled out. Sterling was flat on the [..]

US inflation edges up in October; dollar unmoved

Posted on November 17, 2015 at 3:18 pm GMT

Annual inflation showed signs of picking up in the United States as the 12-month CPI rate increased to 0.2% in October from 0.0% in September. The figure was slightly stronger than the 0.1% rate expected by economists. On a month-on-month basis, prices were up 0.2% in October – the first rise in three months, which was in line with estimates. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy items, was unchanged at 1.9% on a yearly basis, while the month-on-month rate [..]

US retail sales disappoint in October; unlikely to detract Fed in rate decision

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 3:04 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States rose by less than expected in October, posting a modest growth of just 0.1% month-on-month. Consensus estimates were for retail sales to grow by 0.3% m/m. Adding to the feeble data was a downward revision to the previous month’s figure, which was revised down to 0% from 0.1% m/m. On a 12-month basis, retail sales were 1.7% higher. The core retail sales measure, which excludes items such as building materials, motor vehicles and parts, [..]

European Session – Euro dips to 1.06 handle, pound steady ahead of UK jobs

Posted on November 10, 2015 at 3:13 pm GMT

In the absence of any major economic data today, the market focus was on the dollar and expectations of a Fed rate hike. The greenback continued to consolidate its Friday rally and kept other major currencies under pressure. The euro was unable to hold above the key support level of 1.0700 and fell to a seven-month low of 1.0673. The increasing divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, along with recent reports of a [..]

The Fed’s potential rate hike and its implications outside the dollar

Posted on November 10, 2015 at 1:33 pm GMT

The market’s reassessment of the Fed’s rate hike probabilities in December could have a significant impact on other asset classes except foreign exchange. The strengthening of the US dollar of course is the consequence that sticks out, but what about bonds? Stocks? Commodities? Emerging markets? Starting with the easy one, of course the rate hike looks like a negative for bonds as prices go down when yields (or interest rates) rise. However, for bonds with longer maturities, the question is [..]

Jobs data seen pushing Fed towards rate hike and dollar higher

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 2:33 pm GMT

The US dollar rose to a 6 ½ month high versus the euro and a 2 ½ month high versus the yen today, following the release of a surprisingly strong employment report out of the United States. As the Fed has professed to being data-dependent concerning the decision, the strong data that has been received means that a potential rate hike – the first since 2006 – is now closer to becoming reality. Today’s jobs number could even go as [..]

Central bank meetings lift some of the fog heading into year-end

Posted on October 30, 2015 at 12:14 pm GMT

The meetings of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan during the past couple of weeks have managed to clear up some of the uncertainty regarding the next steps in monetary policy from the world’s major central banks. Firstly, starting with the ECB which met the previous week, one should expect some sort of extension or expansion of its current Quantitative Easing program during the next meeting in December and possibly a lowering of the [..]

US economy loses momentum in Q3 on weak inventories

Posted on October 29, 2015 at 2:43 pm GMT

US GDP growth slowed in the third quarter of the year, expanding at an annualized rate of 1.5% according to the advance estimate – sharply down from the second quarter’s 3.9%. Consensus estimates were for GDP to grow by 1.6%. The slower growth was attributed to a downturn in private inventory investment, which deducted 1.44% from GDP growth in the July-September quarter. Exports also slowed as the combination of a strong dollar and weak overseas demand held back export growth. [..]

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