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Yellen maintains inflation outlook but highlights growing risks

Posted on February 10, 2016 at 6:37 pm GMT

In her testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke about the growing risks to the US economy in her first public statement since the December rate hike. While maintaining the Fed’s outlook that the economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace and inflation will return to the 2% objective in the medium term, Yellen stressed that monetary policy was not on a “preset course”. Pointing to the recent falls in equity prices and [..]

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European Session – Euro reverses to below $1.12 after Yellen’s written testimony

Posted on February 10, 2016 at 3:27 pm GMT

Markets were more stable today with risk appetite returning in Asia and Europe. This led to the yen giving back some gains made from safe haven flows yesterday. The dollar recovered from mid-114 yen to rise just above the key 115 level in European trading. The euro fell back after testing the 1.1300 level against the dollar, while sterling rose above 1.4500 versus the greenback only to reverse lower following the release of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s prepared semi-annual [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar bounces from near 4-month lows but equities still under pressure

Posted on February 10, 2016 at 8:29 am GMT

Asian stock markets were in negative territory again on Wednesday as fears about global growth and the health of banks continue to weigh on equities. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index shed another 2.3%, while Sydney closed 1.2% lower.  Chinese markets remain closed for the week for the Lunar New Year celebrations. The dollar index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies, hit a near 4-month low of 95.66 on Tuesday but had firmed to 96.09 in late Asian [..]

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Week Ahead – Eurozone GDP and Yellen testimony to be main market drivers

Posted on February 5, 2016 at 12:36 pm GMT

It will be a relatively quiet week for the economic calendar in the next 7 days as many Asian markets will be closed for the Lunar New Year, including China. The Eurozone will see a number of key data releases that will include the first GDP readings for the fourth quarter of 2015. In the US, attention is likely to focus on Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. German industrial production data will start the week on Monday, which will [..]

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ECB, Bank of Japan may find it harder to push their currencies down

Posted on February 5, 2016 at 10:56 am GMT

The past couple of weeks’ events and price action have yielded some interesting insights with respect to the major currencies of the dollar, the yen and the euro.  This relates particularly to the intentions and possible actions of the monetary authorities in the US, Japan and the Eurozone and how they could influence the respective exchange rates. Starting with the yen, the Bank of Japan surprised markets the previous week with its announcement of negative interest rates.  The yen nosedived [..]

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Asian Session – Oil jumps 8% as dollar slumps to 3-month low

Posted on February 4, 2016 at 8:21 am GMT

The US dollar slumped by 1.5% on Wednesday following comments from New York Fed President William Dudley who warned of tightening financial conditions. Speaking in an interview with MNI, Dudley said if the worsening financial conditions are still in place by the March meeting, the Fed would have to take it in consideration. He added that any further increases in dollar’s value could have “significant consequences” for the health of the US economy. Ten-year US treasury yields dropped to near [..]

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Are financial markets the tail that wags the monetary policy dog?

Posted on February 2, 2016 at 1:05 pm GMT

Following the end of the first month of 2016, some conclusions can be drawn.  It was a difficult month for financial markets and equities and commodities in particular.  Concerns about the Chinese economy and a falling oil price was what pushed risk assets and commodities more broadly lower.  On the side of the winners, gold and silver had a particularly good start to the year, as did government bonds in the US and Germany. What is also noteworthy however, is [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar rebounds after Fed but Kiwi slumps on dovish RBNZ

Posted on January 28, 2016 at 8:58 am GMT

Asian stocks started the day positive after the Fed’s slightly dovish statement but gave up earlier gains to turn negative in late Asian trading. China’s Shanghai Composite index closed lower for a third straight day, ending the day down 2.9%. The US dollar rebounded from yesterday’s lows when it dropped immediately after the FOMC statement. The Fed kept rates unchanged but said it is “closely monitoring” the developments in global financial markets and acknowledged that US growth had slowed towards [..]

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