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European Session – Pound under pressure after cabinet resignation; oil see-saws again

Posted on March 21, 2016 at 3:39 pm GMT

It was a quiet start to the week with European equities slightly down from Friday’s close. The dollar was broadly higher but off earlier peaks. Both the dollar and the euro found support from remarks by ECB and Fed officials. The ECB’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau said at a Bank of France conference on Monday that the ECB does not have more unconventional measures on the agenda at this point, indicating the central bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see [..]

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Divergence? No, major central banks singing the same dovish tune

Posted on March 18, 2016 at 3:40 pm GMT

During the past 10 days or so, there was the rare opportunity to hear the decisions of some of the world’s most important central banks within days of each other.  The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England all met and discussed policy within the same 8-day period.  This was perhaps a lot of information to digest all at once, but some key conclusions have emerged behind the [..]

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European Session – Dollar limits losses after US jobless claims data; sterling hits 1-month high of $1.45

Posted on March 17, 2016 at 3:32 pm GMT

The US dollar was broadly weaker during today’s European session, extending losses from the Asian session following a big tumble in reaction to a dovish and unexpectedly cautious Fed on Wednesday. Markets reacted negatively as the Fed announced that it scaled back its rate hike forecasts. This led to a dollar sell-off and by today’s European session, the US currency fell to a 16-month low below the key 111 yen level. It touched 110.65 yen, the lowest since October 2014. [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar slips to 1-month lows after FOMC; aussie and kiwi up on strong data

Posted on March 17, 2016 at 9:00 am GMT

The US dollar extended its losses into Thursday to slip to one-month lows against a basket of currencies. The Federal Reserve yesterday lowered its projections on US GDP growth and its dot plot guidance on expected interest rate rises. The FOMC’s outlook is now in line with market expectations of just two rate increases this year. Analysts had been expecting the Fed to lower its projections but were surprised at the apparent lack of concern for the latest spike in [..]

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Dovish Fed lowers rate rise expectations; dollar drops

Posted on March 16, 2016 at 9:05 pm GMT

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and as expected, kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the second meeting at between 0.25%-0.50%. Accompanying the March meeting statement were the FOMC’s latest economic projections, including forecasts for the fed funds rate over the next three years. In what turned out to be a more dovish-than-expected outlook by the Fed, the latest projections expect GDP growth to be slightly weaker in 2016 and 2017 but unchanged for [..]

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European Session – Dollar gains on upbeat US inflation report, all eyes now on FOMC

Posted on March 16, 2016 at 3:34 pm GMT

UK data dominated the European session but the market’s focus now shifts to the FOMC meeting later today to see if the Fed may shed some light on the timing of future interest rate increases. While no rate hike is expected at today’s meeting, investors will look for any clues on whether the next hike will come at least in June. The odds of more than one Fed rate hike this year are rising as US economic data have improved [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar advances ahead of FOMC; pound remains under pressure

Posted on March 16, 2016 at 8:29 am GMT

The US dollar pulled away from Tuesday’s lows in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors geared up for the Fed’s latest policy announcement later today. The greenback climbed to 113.69 yen in late session, having dipped as low as 112.62 yen yesterday on the back of weaker-than-expected retail sales figures. The yen was under pressure on Wednesday as earlier in the day, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda put the prospect of deeper cuts in rates to negative territory back [..]

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Week Ahead – After ECB, attention turns to Fed; SNB, BoE and BoJ also in focus

Posted on March 11, 2016 at 1:31 pm GMT

It will be another busy week for central banks over the next seven days as the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England hold their policy meetings. The Swiss National Bank will be meeting too next week, while major data out of Japan, the US and the UK will also be eyed. It should be a quiet start to the week with Japanese machinery orders to be the main data on Monday. Machinery orders in January are [..]

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