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Fed

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Fed keeps policy unchanged but sees diminished risks

Posted on July 27, 2016 at 7:46 pm GMT

The US Federal Reserve kept monetary policy unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting today but it left the door open for a possible rate rise this year as it described the near-term risks to the economic outlook as having “diminished”. Concerns over a potential ‘leave’ vote in the UK’s EU referendum and slowing jobs growth in the US in May prevented the Fed from taking action in June. However, those worries have now mostly abated as the labor [..]

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Week Ahead – Hopes high for BoJ stimulus; FOMC and Q2 GDP also eyed

Posted on July 22, 2016 at 1:48 pm GMT

Expectations have been mounting that the Bank of Japan will launch fresh stimulus measures next week but the Fed will likely stay put. It will also be busy on the data front for Japan and the US, while second quarter GDP data for the Eurozone, the UK and the US should also attract attention. Will the BoJ pull the trigger? Starting the week on Monday, trade figures for Japan are expected to show a further deterioration in exports in June. [..]

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Fed may rethink rate pause if stocks and data keep looking up

Posted on July 20, 2016 at 2:57 pm GMT

There has recently been some renewed optimism that the Federal Reserve could get up from the fence it has been sitting on since December of last year.  As can be seen from the chart of the 2-year Treasury yield, a gauge of short-term interest rate expectations for the next 2 years, expectations have recovered to near pre-Brexit levels. The 2-year yield has managed to claw back to 70 basis points after dropping to around 0.5% in the immediate aftermath of [..]

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Week Ahead – First post-Brexit BoE meeting and slowing China GDP could signal fresh stimulus

Posted on July 8, 2016 at 2:52 pm GMT

The Bank of England will come in focus next week as it holds its first policy meeting following the shock referendum outcome when Britons voted to leave the EU. The Chinese economy will also come under the limelight once again as a flurry of data is released, including GDP growth figures for the second quarter. US inflation and retail sales data will also be watched. China GDP to slow further as exports continue to struggle China will start the week [..]

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Asian Session – Major currencies steadier but aussie under pressure from rating downgrade

Posted on July 7, 2016 at 7:38 am GMT

Major currencies were steadier in Asian trading on Thursday following some risk-off moves yesterday. The FOMC minutes of the Fed’s June meeting helped calm market nerves as they suggested that the Fed will likely stick to its cautious approach for the time being. The minutes, which were released yesterday, confirmed that Fed policymakers were concerned about the slowing pace of jobs growth as well as the uncertainty of the outcome of the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU. Speaking [..]

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Week Ahead – US jobs expected to bounce back; RBA to stand pat

Posted on July 1, 2016 at 2:32 pm GMT

Fed rate hike expectations may have eased following the shock Brexit vote but US non-farm payrolls will still be closely watched next week as it’s an important barometer for the US economy. Also to keep an eye on are central bank meetings in Australia and in Sweden. Fed speeches and non-farm payrolls in focus After a quiet start to the week as Americans celebrate Independence Day on Monday, things will get busier from thereon with plenty of economic data to [..]

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Asian Session – Pound steady but dollar drifts lower on fading rate hike expectations

Posted on June 30, 2016 at 7:47 am GMT

Currency markets maintained their calm on Thursday as investors turned increasingly hopeful that central banks would maintain or expand accommodative monetary policy following the Brexit vote. The dollar drifted lower against a basket of currencies for a third day as expectations of a Fed rate hike this year declined dramatically in the wake of the surprise UK vote to leave the EU. The greenback was slightly down against the yen at 102.54 in late Asian trading today, while the euro [..]

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US Personal Consumption shows economy in good shape during Q2

Posted on June 29, 2016 at 2:28 pm GMT

Personal income and spending numbers for May were released broadly in line with expectations today, but there were upbeat messages from the positive revisions from the previous month’s already strong data. Personal income was the only miss as it came in at a positive 0.2% month-on-month compared to a 0.3% change expected by economists in a Reuters poll.  However, the previous month’s income change was raised to 0.5% from 0.4% initially reported.  Personal consumption met expectations by coming in at [..]

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