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Week Ahead – US retail sales eyed after recent weak data; BoE meets as recession fears ease

Posted on September 9, 2016 at 1:49 pm GMT

Inflation and retail sales data out of the US and UK will come into focus next week, while industrial production numbers for China, the Eurozone and the US will also be watched. Another highlight is the Bank of England’s policy meeting but this could be a non-event after August’s ‘sledgehammer’ stimulus package. Chinese business investment could hit 17-year low After a fairly quiet Monday, Chinese data will kick-start the week on Tuesday. The latest batch of industrial output, retail sales [..]

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Bad US economic news may not hurt the dollar longer-term

Posted on September 7, 2016 at 1:51 pm GMT

The US dollar has experienced quite a flip-flop in the past few weeks, as a summer that was dominated by a relatively uneventful Brexit was drawing to a close. Relatively hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials (particularly Chair Yellen) that seemed to open the door to a possible rate hike in September, have clashed with some particularly weak readings from the two most important business surveys of the world’s largest economy. In particular, the ISM’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys posted [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar breaks above 103 yen; BoJ comments add to broader yen weakness

Posted on August 31, 2016 at 8:09 am GMT

Growing expectations that the Fed is poised to raise rates at least once this year lifted the dollar to a one-month high against the yen today. The dollar broke above the 103 level on Monday for the first time since the end of July and extended its gains to 103.27 during today’s Asian session. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer yesterday reiterated Yellen’s views when she spoke in Jackson Hole last Friday that the US labor market is nearing full employment [..]

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European Session – Dollar extends gains on firmer rate hike expectations following Fed’s Stanley comments

Posted on August 30, 2016 at 2:48 pm GMT

The US dollar continued its post – Jackson Hole rally after receiving another boost from comments by Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer today who firmed rate hike expectations. Speaking on Bloomberg TV today, the US central bank official mostly reiterated his views from Friday when both he and Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested that the case for a rate increase was strengthening. Markets are now waiting for the next big event on Friday, which is nonfarm payrolls data. The data [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar rebounds back above 102 yen despite strong Japanese data

Posted on August 30, 2016 at 8:34 am GMT

The dollar rose marginally against major currencies in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors eyed Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The August jobs report out of the US will be closely watched following the recent hawkish tones of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself. The greenback extended its declines at the start of today’s Asian session to hit a low of 101.74 against the yen before reversing to climb to around 102.40 yen in late session. The euro and [..]

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European Session – Dollar firms on Fed policy outlook after hawkish Yellen

Posted on August 29, 2016 at 3:19 pm GMT

The US dollar remained firm as investors continue to digest comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen as well as other Fed officials at the Jackson Hole summit over the weekend. The key message appeared to be that a policy tightening this year was in play. More US economic data will likely determine if the Fed will hike rates as soon as the September policy meeting. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will definitely play a big role in the Fed’s policy decision but [..]

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US personal consumption and income continue to expand at solid rates

Posted on August 29, 2016 at 3:13 pm GMT

Consumer spending in the United States slowed slightly in July but continued to grow at a respectable rate, while personal income rose at the fastest pace in three months. Personal consumption was up 0.3% month-on-month in July, in line with forecasts but down from the previous month’s upwardly revised 0.5% rate. The June figure was initially reported at 0.4%. Personal income also met expectations, rising by 0.4% m/m in July, up from 0.3% in the prior month, which was also revised [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar extends gains on Yellen rate comments

Posted on August 29, 2016 at 8:45 am GMT

The US dollar extended its gains in Asian trading on Monday as markets increased their expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates later this year. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated the hawkish views of other Fed officials in recent days. Yellen said the US economy is “nearing the Federal Reserve’s statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability”. She added that the “case for an increase in the federal [..]

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European Session – Dollar makes limited gains as Yellen fails to give clear signals on rate hikes

Posted on August 26, 2016 at 3:29 pm GMT

The major currencies were without direction during most of the European session as investors took on a cautious tone ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium today in Wyoming, USA. The US dollar was consolidating with limited movement against major counterparts before Yellen’s speech and saw limited reaction to US data. A second estimate of US GDP released today showed US economic growth was a bit more sluggish than initially thought in the second [..]

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