All Articles Tagged - Fed

Week Ahead – Fed minutes, RBNZ decision, and business surveys on tap

Posted on November 18, 2022 at 12:00 pm GMT

Another busy week is coming up for FX markets, featuring the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting and a rate decision in New Zealand that investors are split on. Most importantly, business surveys from the major economies will reveal whether US inflationary pressures continue to cool off and whether Europe is already in recession. Dollar loses its shine Signs that US inflation is finally simmering down dealt a heavy blow to the US dollar lately, as traders unwound bets that [..]

Wounded US dollar turns to retail sales for direction – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 15, 2022 at 8:39 am GMT

Hopes that inflation is finally cooling down led traders to unwind bets that the Fed will raise rates beyond 5%, dealing a heavy blow to the US dollar last week. The next event is the retail sales report this week. It will reveal how demand is holding up, helping investors decide whether the selloff in the dollar was an overreaction or the beginning of a trend reversal. Fed bets The latest US inflation data came as a bombshell for markets, [..]

Week Ahead – Fed and BoE to raise rates ahead of US payrolls

Posted on October 27, 2022 at 1:53 pm GMT

Another extraordinary week is coming up. The Fed is almost certain to raise rates, putting the spotlight on Chairman Powell, who needs to open the door for a smaller rate hike in December without giving the impression of a pivot. Meanwhile, central bank decisions in the UK and Australia will be crucial for those currencies, before the week concludes with the latest edition of nonfarm payrolls. Fed pivot? Not quite A three-quarter percentage point rate increase from the Federal Reserve [..]

Fed could use Jackson Hole to right the ship – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 23, 2022 at 3:01 pm GMT

With Fed officials heading to Jackson Hole, market participants are bracing for turbulence. Despite raising rates with incredible force, US yields remain stubbornly low as markets speculate about rate cuts next year. That’s counterproductive for a central bank still fighting inflation, and if Chair Powell attempts to ‘right the ship’ in his speech on Friday, that could extend the retreat in stock markets but supercharge the dollar. Unofficial meeting Once per year, Fed officials gather at their summer retreat in [..]

Refreshed US dollar awaits Fed minutes and retail sales – Forex News Preview

Posted on August 16, 2022 at 1:48 pm GMT

The US dollar rally has picked up a second wind, despite some signs that the US economy is losing steam. Investors seem much more concerned about Europe and China, which is helping the reserve currency attract safe-haven flows. Retail sales data and the minutes of the latest Fed meeting will hit the markets on Wednesday, providing fresh clues around how far interest rates might be raised in this cycle. No alternative With the Fed opening the door for a slowdown [..]

US Open Note – US CPI beats expectations and rises by 8.3%; dollar moves up again

Posted on May 11, 2022 at 1:36 pm GMT

The CPI rate ticked up by 8.3% in the year that ended in April. The annual CPI decrease was the first since August, but it was the eighth month in a row of gains of more than 6%. In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% year-over-year, the highest increase since December 1981. After the release of higher-than-expected CPI figures, the dollar initially rose. The dollar index is showing positive signs as it jumped beyond 104.00; however, US futures are leading lower, suggesting a [..]

US Open Note – Dollar steadies as it awaits US CPI data

Posted on May 10, 2022 at 12:50 pm GMT

Fed speakers today and US CPI tomorrow in focus This week, Fed speakers will be out in full force to disseminate the latest views of the central bank. Each one of these officials has a chance to share their thoughts on current policy. Barkin did this last week and put 75 bp back on the table, stressing that he wants to raise rates “as quickly as possible.” Others at the Fed are also likely to adopt a more hawkish outlook in the coming days. But the main thing to [..]

Daily Market Comment – Can the Federal Reserve exceed market expectations?

Posted on May 4, 2022 at 8:38 am GMT

Fed set to raise interest rates by a half point and shrink balance sheet Market reaction will depend mostly on Powell’s tone – sell the news? FX market quiet, stocks lick their wounds, oil smiles at new sanctions Fed will struggle to exceed market pricing The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates by half a percentage point today and outline plans for shrinking its gigantic balance sheet in an attempt to rein in inflationary forces. Markets have [..]

Fed to speed up rate hikes, but how far will Powell go? – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 3, 2022 at 3:11 pm GMT

The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates by half a percentage point and begin shrinking its enormous balance sheet when it concludes its meeting at 18:00 GMT Wednesday. Then on Friday, the employment report for April will hit the markets and is expected to reaffirm the strength of the US economy. Overall, the dollar will likely remain king until the economic outlook for Europe, China, and Japan begins to improve. Fed gets its wish Fed officials have been [..]

US Open Note – Dollar index surges to 20-year high; Yen still plunging

Posted on April 28, 2022 at 1:15 pm GMT

BoJ maintains dovish stance The Bank of Japan (BoJ), announced a continuation of its ultra-low yield policy earlier today, catapulting the dollar beyond the psychological threshold of 130.00 yen, to the highest level since 2002, hitting the 131.00 round number. The euro, meanwhile, dipped below another important handle of $1.05. The dollar index is extending its movement towards a 20-year high of 103.92. US stocks futures are suggesting a second positive day in a row for the S&P 500 ahead of the earnings results by Apple and Amazon after the closing bell today. There had been considerable market speculation that the [..]

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