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Fed holds rates but sees increased case for rate hike

Posted on November 2, 2016 at 7:44 pm GMT

The US Federal Reserve announced no change to its benchmark rate on Wednesday as it concluded its two-day policy meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%, as expected, but signalled it was getting closer to achieving its objectives of maximum employment and inflation of 2%. In its statement, the Fed said the case for a rate rise “has continued to strengthen” but has decided to wait for “some” further [..]

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Week Ahead – Central banks dominate as Fed, BoJ, BoE and RBA meet ahead of NFP report

Posted on October 27, 2016 at 1:19 pm GMT

The coming week will be dominated by central bank meetings as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia all hold their regular policy meetings. There will be no shortage of economic data either as Eurozone flash inflation and GDP figures are due along with the Markit/CIPS PMIs for the UK. But US data may grab the most attention as it will include personal consumption expenditure numbers, ISM surveys and [..]

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US dollar index hits fresh 8-month peak; brings it within reach of a 13-year high

Posted on October 26, 2016 at 2:09 pm GMT

The US dollar index reached its highest since early February on Tuesday at 99.11.  From its August low of 94, the dollar index has therefore rallied more than 5%.  The US dollar is now tantalizingly close to the 100.51 high of December 2015.  If it manages to overcome this level, it would be a fresh 13-year high for the greenback.  Such a development would certainly be a major event for foreign exchange markets in 2016.  It would also mark a [..]

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Asian Session – Yen loses ground on positive risk sentiment

Posted on October 25, 2016 at 7:15 am GMT

The yen retreated against its major peers on Tuesday, as risk appetite was relatively positive and trading was quiet, which reduced appetite for the safe haven currency. Dollar / yen managed to surpass 104; a level that served as resistance in previous sessions as positive sentiment about the greenback continued.  Two developments helped the greenback the previous day.  First of all, the Markit manufacturing PMI for October came in at 53.2 versus 51.5 expected – the highest in 12 months.  Secondly, Chicago [..]

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European Session – Dollar near 9-month high while euro firms on strong Eurozone PMIs

Posted on October 24, 2016 at 3:11 pm GMT

Currency markets were relatively subdued on the week’s first day of trading as most major pairs were stuck within their recent trading range. The euro had slid back to a 7½-month low of 1.0858 dollars earlier in the Asian session as it continued to come under pressure from the diverging policies of the Fed and the European Central Bank. However, stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI figures at the start of European trading lifted the single currency back towards the 1.09 level. Markit’s [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar remains strong on rate hike expectations

Posted on October 24, 2016 at 7:04 am GMT

The US dollar index traded close to its highest since early February following a speech on Friday by a key Fed official that increased the probability of a rate hike before the end of the year. San Francisco Fed President John Williams also backed the possibility of a rate hike this year, following similar comments by the New York Fed President William Dudley earlier last week.  Williams expressed the view that the economy was running at full employment and that inflation was [..]

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Asian Session – Peso gains and US dollar firm following presidential debate, hawkish Fed talk

Posted on October 20, 2016 at 7:47 am GMT

The final US Presidential debate helped risk assets and the Mexican peso as Republican candidate Donald Trump did not seem to take the opportunity to score major points versus his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.  Other surveys and speeches pointed to a Fed rate hike this year, which boosted the dollar. The Mexican peso initially rallied following the debate between Hillary and Trump, as USDMXN made a 6-week low of 18.45.  Profit-taking and a small correction in oil (last at 51.43) [..]

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Asian session – Commodity currencies rise on positive risk; US dollar steadies

Posted on October 18, 2016 at 7:14 am GMT

The US dollar steadied while there was some positive risk sentiment that benefited Asian stocks and currencies such as the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars.  Sterling mostly held the previous day’s gains. In the day’s key developments, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s new Governor Philip Lowe emphasized the role of inflation expectations, as persistently low inflation could become engrained in consumers’ long-term outlook.  This heightened the focus on next week’s quarterly inflation numbers, as the RBA could move to [..]

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