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Week Ahead – Fed and ECB decisions set the stage for US payrolls

Posted on April 28, 2023 at 10:59 am GMT

An explosive week lies ahead for global markets, featuring central bank decisions in the United States, Eurozone, and Australia, alongside the latest edition of nonfarm payrolls. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates one final time, so the dollar will react mostly to any signals around future action. But the euro might enjoy even greater volatility, as traders are split on the size of the upcoming ECB rate increase.  Fed to play its final card The US economic machine [..]

Fed faces dilemma, hit pause or keep raising rates? – Forex News Preview

Posted on March 20, 2023 at 3:22 pm GMT

One of the most important Fed decisions in recent history lies ahead on Wednesday. Markets think the banking episode could prevent the Fed from raising rates and are pricing in rate cuts by the summer. This speculation seems overblown. Banks have already been supported and inflation is still raging. That sets the stage for a rate increase and elevated rate projections, which could revive the dollar. Breaking point With the banking system under enormous stress, investors believe the Fed will [..]

Week Ahead – Fed decision to fuel volatility in nervous market

Posted on March 17, 2023 at 11:51 am GMT

With cracks appearing in the US banking system, markets think there’s a chance the Fed won’t raise rates next week. But considering that the Fed has already taken measures to ease financial stress and that inflation is still raging, the most likely outcome is a rate increase accompanied by high rate projections, which could boost the dollar. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank meet as well.  Fed dilemma It’s going to be a difficult meeting for Fed [..]

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What does the US banking crisis mean for markets? – Special Report

Posted on March 14, 2023 at 3:32 pm GMT

Cracks have started to appear in the US financial system with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Even though the Fed stepped in with a rescue plan, it wasn’t enough to calm nerves in markets. Instead, investors are betting this episode will force the Fed to stop tightening. Such speculation seems exaggerated, and if Fed officials push back against it next week, stock markets could resume their decline while the dollar storms higher.  Financial stress The collapse of Silicon Valley [..]

Can nonfarm payrolls refuel the dollar’s rally? – Forex News Preview

Posted on March 7, 2023 at 3:12 pm GMT

Another high-stakes US employment report will be released on Friday. Most indicators point to another strong month for the labor market, although there’s a risk of some ‘payback’ following the sensational numbers last month. As for the dollar, the outlook seems positive in an environment of rising Fed bets, especially when considering the vulnerabilities in equity markets.  Economic resilience The central theme in the markets this year has been the strength of the US economy. Incoming data continues to paint [..]

Week Ahead – Fed minutes and RBNZ decision coming up

Posted on February 17, 2023 at 10:41 am GMT

Investors will receive another dose of crucial data releases next week that can fuel FX volatility. The highlight will be the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, where there’s a risk that policymakers strike a different tone than Powell did back then. Over in New Zealand, the central bank is about to roll out another rate hike. Meanwhile, the latest set of business surveys will provide a timely update on the health of the global economy.  Dollar tries to capitalize [..]

Daily Market Comment – Fed decision kicks off central bank bonanza

Posted on February 1, 2023 at 9:36 am GMT

Fed set to raise rates by 25bps but what tone will Powell strike?  Dollar remains on the back foot, stocks resume euphoric rally Meta reports earnings, ECB and BoE decisions awaited tomorrow Fed balancing act All eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision today. Investors expect the Fed to wind down the pace of rate increases by rolling out a 25bps hike, which is already fully baked into market pricing. As such, the market reaction will depend mostly on [..]

Week Ahead – Fed, ECB, and BoE rate decisions on the menu

Posted on January 27, 2023 at 11:25 am GMT

A busy week lies ahead, featuring several central bank decisions and a stream of data releases. The Fed is set to raise rates at a slower pace as inflation has started to cool down, putting the emphasis on Powell’s commentary. Meanwhile, market pricing suggests the ECB and BoE will roll out bigger rate increases than the Fed, before the week concludes with the latest US employment report.  Dollar awaits Fed update It’s been a difficult few months for the US [..]

Gold goes on a winning streak, can it rise further in 2023? – Special Report

Posted on January 10, 2023 at 3:09 pm GMT

Gold prices started the year with a powerful rally, capitalizing on hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of its tightening cycle. Looking into 2023, the prospects for the yellow metal seem bright in a macroeconomic environment characterized by heightened recession fears. The main downside risk is probably a resolution to the Ukraine war, which does not seem imminent.   Dissecting gold’s comeback  The world’s oldest safe-haven closed 2022 essentially flat, staging a late rally to recover most of the [..]

Fed decision and US inflation stats to decide dollar’s fate – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 9, 2022 at 12:14 pm GMT

A decisive week lies ahead for the dollar, featuring the latest US inflation and retail sales reports, alongside a critical Fed decision. Business surveys suggest inflationary forces continued to abate, although elevated rents might offset some of that. Meanwhile, a half-point rate increase by the Fed is already locked in, putting the emphasis mostly on the updated ‘dot plot’ projections.  Managing risks The US economy finds itself at a crossroads. Most leading indicators suggest a storm will hit next year. [..]

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