All Articles Tagged - EURUSD

Technical Analysis – EURUSD finds support at the 200-day SMA

Posted on January 18, 2024 at 9:19 am GMT

EURUSD had been rangebound before sliding lower But the retreat ceases at the 200-day SMA Momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside EURUSD had been trading sideways since the beginning of the year following its pullback from the December high of 1.1138. The pair spiked lower on Tuesday, but the congested region that includes the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the top of the Ichimoku cloud rejected further retreats. Considering that both the RSI and stochastics are deep in their [..]

Market Comment – Strong retail sales pour more cold water on Fed rate cut hopes

Posted on January 18, 2024 at 9:08 am GMT

Dollar gains as US retail sales beat estimates Probability for Fed rate cut in March declines further Yen falls further ahead of Japan’s National CPI data Pound and euro recover some lost ground US retail sales beat forecasts, weigh on Fed rate cut bets The US dollar continued gaining against most of its counterparts on Wednesday, losing ground only versus the euro and the pound. That said, today it is pulling back, perhaps on profit-taking following its latest advance. What [..]

Market Comment – Dollar rallies as market scales back Fed rate cut bets

Posted on January 17, 2024 at 9:13 am GMT

Waller says Fed is in no rush to cut rates March cut probability slips and dollar gains Pound rebounds after hotter-than-expected UK CPI data Yen and euro extend losses, Wall Street also slips Traders scale back Fed rate cut bets, US retail sales on tap The US dollar rose sharply against all its major counterparts on Tuesday, extending its gains today, as Fed Governor Waller said that while inflation is within “striking distance” of their 2% objective, they should not [..]

Market Comment – Mood sours as ECB pushes back on rate cuts; will Fed follow suit?

Posted on January 16, 2024 at 10:24 am GMT

Euro skids even as ECB officials dampen early rate cut expectations Dollar jumps on fears Fed’s Waller will take a similarly hawkish stance Pound and aussie tumble on soft data Oil and gold pulled in different directions in choppy trade Rate cut bets pared back after ECB intervention Dovish expectations for the major central banks suffered a setback on Tuesday after ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann cast doubt on the prospect of any rate cuts in 2024. Speaking at [..]

Volatility Report – January 16, 2024

Posted on January 16, 2024 at 8:15 am GMT

Volatility crashed across the FX spectrum including EUR/USD and JPY crosses Gold and Silver volatility drops; oil and Bitcoin set for sizeable moves Stock indices in turbulent waters, JP225 volatility records a new monthly high The recent range-trading in EUR/USD has caused the expected volatility to drop to the lowest level of the past month, despite some key data releases. This expectation for small price movements going forward is also depicted in the remaining currencies covered in this report and predominantly [..]

Could the market price in an ECB rate cut in March? – Special Report

Posted on January 15, 2024 at 2:12 pm GMT

Data have to turn quickly negative for the March gathering to become live Market assigns only 30% chance for a March move; April rate cut is a done deal January concludes with preliminary PMIs and the January 25 ECB meeting Despite the upside surprise at the December inflation report, the market remains convinced that the ECB will probably be the first one to announce a rate cut in 2024. The market is currently pricing in a 30% probability of a [..]

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

Posted on January 15, 2024 at 9:55 am GMT

EUR/USD resilient below 1.1000 as US retail sales awaited UK CPI to fall but will GBP/USD extend rebound? China’s GDP growth could rise; AUD/USD looks for pullback US retail sales –> EUR/USD Retail sales will be the main focus in the US, while the other releases will primarily consist of second-tier data. Although there has been a deceleration in US consumer spending following a rise throughout the summer, it is not expected to see a sudden and drastic decline. In [..]

Dollar stalls, turns to US retail sales for direction – Preview

Posted on January 15, 2024 at 9:41 am GMT

US retail sales expected to have risen again in December Strong dataset could dampen speculation of rapid Fed rate cuts Data due at 13:30 GMT Wednesday, crucial for dollar’s path Waiting for Fed rate cuts The US economy put in a stellar performance last year. Real economic growth remained around 3%, fueled by resilient consumer spending, a tight labor market, and an enormous government deficit. Meanwhile, inflation has declined at a steady pace, with some help from falling energy prices. [..]

Market Comment – Global markets go nowhere despite US inflation surprise

Posted on January 12, 2024 at 10:01 am GMT

US inflation surprises to the upside, but markets shrug it off Dollar and stocks close unchanged as Fed narrative remains intact Oil and gold spike higher as US and UK launch airstrikes on Yemen Traders dismiss US inflation surprise Global markets went on a rollercoaster ride on Thursday after the US inflation report, but ultimately ended exactly where they started. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index came in hotter than expected in December, clocking in at 3.4% on [..]

Market continues to price in aggressive rate cuts for 2024 – Special Report

Posted on January 12, 2024 at 7:58 am GMT

The 2024 market theme remains for several rate cuts from most central banks Fed is seen cutting rates six times despite the November Presidential election ECB and the BoC to cut first; RBA the last one to join the club BoJ is finally seen hiking for the first time since 2007 – will it prove wishful thinking? Last year ended with clear feelings from the market’s side about the direction of rates in 2024: rate cuts across the board, apart [..]

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