All Articles Tagged - EURUSD

Eurozone CPI report: further noise or a proper signal to cut rates again? – Preview

Posted on June 28, 2024 at 9:57 am GMT

ECB members disagree about the rates outlook Key data releases including the June CPI figures A soft inflation report is unlikely to result in a dovish July ECB meeting Political risks keep the euro under pressure The ECB hawks are clearly upset It has been three weeks since the first ECB rate cut, and the situation feels very different to a traditional monetary policy easing cycle. Under normal conditions, every meeting would be considered a “live” one with most ECB [..]

Market Comment – Core PCE in focus ahead of French elections

Posted on June 28, 2024 at 8:16 am GMT

Dollar gains after first presidential debate Focus today turns to core PCE inflation Yen slides, intervention risks rise French citizens head to the ballots on Sunday Trump election win bets support dollar The US dollar traded slightly lower against most of its major peers on Thursday, extending gains only against the yen and the franc. That said, the greenback is on the front foot again today, gaining the most ground versus the aussie and the kiwi. What helped the dollar [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD rises slightly up after the battle with 8-week low

Posted on June 27, 2024 at 7:15 am GMT

EURUSD holds in sideways move SMAs create bearish crossovers MACD continues to head south EURUSD tested the previous low of 1.0665 on Wednesday, holding within a narrow range of 1.0665-1.0720. The 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bearish crossover a few days after the death cross between the 20- and the 200-day SMAs, both hinting at more losses. Technically, the momentum oscillators are showing some mixed signals confirming the lack of direction in the near term. The [..]

Is France headed for political stalemate and how bad is this for the euro? – Special Report

Posted on June 27, 2024 at 6:38 am GMT

Far-right National Rally party maintains lead ahead of June 30 first round of votes But can it secure an absolute majority as left-wing alliance makes progress? A hung parliament might be the worst outcome for the euro France in political turmoil President Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative vote hot on the heels of the European elections came as a complete shock not only in France but also across Europe, not to mention for financial markets. What is widely [..]

Will the core PCE inflation persuade the Fed to cut rates? – Preview

Posted on June 26, 2024 at 3:15 pm GMT

US core PCE inflation index could resume downtrend Fed may ask more evidence before cutting interest rates EURUSD trades near key support zone. Is it time for an upside reversal? Inflation could hit a new low in May Friday will see the release of the Fed’s favorite core PCE inflation measure at 12:30 GMT as the world’s largest central bank keeps looking for signs of sustained price stability around its 2.0% target almost a year after it paused its hiking [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD retests 6-week low

Posted on June 26, 2024 at 1:53 pm GMT

EURUSD posts more losses 20- and 50-day SMA create another bearish cross RSI and MACD extend negative momentum EURUSD extended Tuesday’s losses and is currently re-challenging the six-week low of 1.0667 hit earlier this month. The RSI turned lower after entering the area below 50. At the moment, it continues to head lower in support of a negative short-term picture. The bias in the very-short-term also looks bearish as indicated by the MACD, which is also strengthening the bearish steam. [..]

Market Comment – Stocks’ asthmatic reaction keeps dollar in demand

Posted on June 26, 2024 at 7:22 am GMT

US stocks edge higher amidst quiet newsflow French elections are around the corner Aussie and loonie benefit from hotter CPI reports Yen remains under pressure Dollar records small gains against the euro The US dollar is trying to find its footing as the market prepares for Thursday’s presidential debate between Trump and Biden and Friday’s PCE inflation report. Yesterday’s Fedspeak did not hold any surprises with the Fed’s Cook talking vaguely about the possibility of rate cuts at some point. [..]

Besides commodities, volatility is heightened across the board – Volatility Watch

Posted on June 25, 2024 at 10:51 am GMT

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past. Meanwhile, despite some signs of stabilization on the continent, the euro remains at the upper end of its volatility range against major currencies. In commodities, gold and silver have been exhibiting low volatility amid a [..]

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

Posted on June 25, 2024 at 8:34 am GMT

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index –> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week. The core PCE index is expected to have slid to 2.6% from 2.8% y/y. The sluggish retail sales figures hint [..]

Market Comment – Busier calendar could support the dollar

Posted on June 25, 2024 at 8:21 am GMT

Richer US data calendar and Fedspeak today US stocks in the red again; uptrend intact Key inflation reports from both Canada and Australia Yen shows signs of life but still close to intervention level Dollar remains on the back foot The US dollar remains under pressure against the euro despite the relatively quiet newsflow. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee maintained his relatively dovish stance yesterday with the market focusing more on comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly. This relatively more [..]

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