All Articles Tagged - EURUSD

Volatility drops across the board after the Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Posted on September 24, 2024 at 10:47 am GMT

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar underperforms Volatility in commodities stays elevated, led by gold Stock indices experience decent volatility despite the rally Euro/dollar volatility has eased a bit over the past week, as the market digested the strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has dropped aggressively lower, as the yen surrendered part of its recent sizeable gains, despite the fact that the BoJ maintained the chances of another rate hike in 2024. Volatility in the commodities’ space remains elevated [..]

Daily Comment – China’s stimulus blitz supports positive equities sentiment

Posted on September 24, 2024 at 7:49 am GMT

Dollar tries to recover as Fedspeak favors further cuts China announces new measures, positive initial market reaction Aussie benefits from another hawkish RBA meeting Gold, oil and pound rallies continue Debate for the next Fed cut intensifies US stocks remain in a positive mood as Fed speakers continue to advocate for further rate cuts, despite the fact that the US data confirm the strength of the US economy. Although the first Fed rate cut was almost unanimously approved, there seems to [..]

Will core PCE inflation corroborate bets for another double Fed cut? – Preview

Posted on September 24, 2024 at 7:45 am GMT

Fed cuts by 50bps, sees another 50bps by December Investors turn more dovish, which implies upside risks Focus turns to PCE inflation due out on Friday at 12:30 GMT Some investors expect a back-to-back 50bps cut The Fed decided to begin this easing cycle with a double 50bps rate cut at last week’s decision, with the new dot plot pointing to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024. At the press conference following the decision, Fed [..]

Quick Brief – German chancellor escapes political drama for now

Posted on September 23, 2024 at 11:38 am GMT

Center-left SPD party prevents far-right win in regional election Eurozone’s flash PMIs press EURUSD below 1.1100 Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) escaped a defeat by a small margin of 1-2% against the far-right AfD during Sunday’s regional election in Brandenburg. The state has been led by SPD since Germany’s reunification in 1990 and is a hometown to the German chancellor, who has been suffering plummeting opinion polls and anxiety within his coalition government, especially after the AfD’s [..]

Daily Comment – Euro sinks on poor PMIs, dollar firms ahead of Fedspeak

Posted on September 23, 2024 at 9:02 am GMT

Eurozone PMIs dip into contraction zone, euro takes a dive Stocks mixed as weak PMIs offset optimism about China stimulus Dollar edges up as after Waller comments; Powell and PCE inflation eyed next Euro tumbles as recession fears return Eurozone business activity unexpectedly contracted in September according to the flash PMI estimates for September, sparking fresh concerns about the health of the economy. The S&P Global composite PMI fell to 48.9 in September from 51.0 in August, as German manufacturing [..]

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDCHF, AUDUSD, EURUSD

Posted on September 23, 2024 at 8:22 am GMT

SNB to cut rates as USDCHF holds within range RBA to hold steady with AUDUSD standing near 9-month high US core PCE index in the spotlight after Fed decision; EURUSD retreats to 1.1100 SNB interest rate decision –> USDCHF The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its policy decision on Thursday, following the announcements made by major central banks last week. There is considerable uncertainty about the size of the rate cut. Currently, there is a 61% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction, while the remaining probabilities point to a 50-bps move. [..]

Stocks’ positive reaction might continue until the second Fed rate cut – Special Report

Posted on September 20, 2024 at 10:02 am GMT

The Fed announced its first rate cut with a relatively balanced rhetoric History points to a high probability of back-to-back moves Dollar/yen and Treasury yields tend to drop until the second rate cut Barring a major event, stocks’ positive performance could continue The Fed commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in aggressive fashion by announcing an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps. The markets were surprised with the US dollar suffering the most. Both the accompanying policy statement [..]

Week Ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

Posted on September 20, 2024 at 9:57 am GMT

SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation September flash PMIs to do the rounds; spotlight on euro area SNB to keep trimming as strong franc bites The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be the final major central bank to announce its policy decision in September. Like the Fed, there is a substantial degree of [..]

Daily Comment – Markets digest Fed decision; BoE and BoJ stand pat

Posted on September 20, 2024 at 8:38 am GMT

Dollar tumbles on bets of more aggressive Fed rate cuts BoE keeps rates steady, reiterating caution about future cuts BoJ stands pat, Ueda says more rate hikes are coming S&P 500, Dow Jones and gold hit new record highs Fed outcome allows risk-on trading The dollar tumbled against all but two of its major counterparts on Thursday, with the main gainers being the risk-linked currencies, the aussie and the kiwi. The greenback gained some ground versus the safe havens, the [..]

Quick Brief – Fed surprises with a 50bps rate cut

Posted on September 19, 2024 at 8:56 am GMT

Fed announces a 50bps cut with more easing to come in 2024 Dollar suffers a bit; US equities finish Wednesday’s session in the red The Fed surprised the markets with an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps, despite still forecasting a relatively tight labour market. The accompanying statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference was relatively balanced and kept the door open to further easing down the line. According to the dot plot, two 25bps rate cuts are the [..]

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