All Articles Tagged - crude oil

US Open Note – Greenback slips as Fed tapering starts

Posted on November 15, 2021 at 2:04 pm GMT

Fed tapering begins According to the FOMC meeting of November 2-3, tapering will begin this week as planned. The New York Fed announced its modified bond-purchase schedule last week, confirming that tapering will start this month. Until June, the Federal Reserve intends to keep reducing its purchases by $15 billion each month. There is a possibility of a change in tapering speed, but the Fed has indicated that it will only do so if it is necessary. Futures for the Fed Funds rate are still pricing in a Q2 liftoff of roughly two-thirds, while [..]

US Open Note – Dollar turns down after printing new highs

Posted on November 12, 2021 at 1:46 pm GMT

Eyes on JOLTS job openings ahead of inflation expectations There is a scarcity of fresh information today. The JOLTS job openings for September and the preliminary November consumer mood index from the University of Michigan will be released later in the day. The results of the JOLTS survey should demonstrate that supply of workets continues to be the most pressing issue in the labor market. These are generally second-tier economic data from the United States, but they may garner more attention this time around because [..]

Daily Market Comment – Dollar rules the FX skies, equities undecided

Posted on November 12, 2021 at 9:43 am GMT

Dollar remains king as Fed shockwaves reverberate Stocks caught in limbo, oil prices wary of supply risks Second-tier data coming up today, but could be crucial Dollar reigns supreme The trading week is coming to a close with the dollar ruling the skies over the FX battleground, after a shocking acceleration in US inflation reignited expectations for faster Fed rate increases and served as jet fuel for the reserve currency. Markets are currently split on whether the FOMC will hike [..]

US Open Note – Dollar still holds in negative territory after US PPI

Posted on November 9, 2021 at 2:16 pm GMT

Calm day with US core PPI Across the board, this week’s data has been strong but not so important. The market has instead been focused on central banks, with both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meeting last week. The FOMC voted to taper immediately in November, with a $15bn reduction per month in purchases, which implies asset purchases would end completely by June 2022. Markets are continuing to price in a Fed lift-off that occurs sooner than the Fed desires. Even though many Federal [..]

US Open Note – Dollar eases at the beginning of the week

Posted on November 8, 2021 at 2:01 pm GMT

FX arena remains calm As the new week gets underway, the outlook for the dollar is slightly negative. Having initially climbed on Friday, the dollar index later declined from the 94.62 high and has since remained negative. The euro, which has remained heavy following last week’s unsuccessful drop below the $1.1525 level, is still moving near $1.1570 with weak momentum. On Friday, the pound challenged the support near $1.3410, where it was unable to break through. A clean break below would set up a test of the December 2020 low of $1.3135, which would be a significant step forward. [..]

Will OPEC cool the oil market? – Special Report

Posted on November 1, 2021 at 4:41 pm GMT

OPEC meets on Thursday and the outcome could decide the fate of oil prices, which have gone through the roof lately. The question is whether the cartel will sit back and enjoy the increased revenue or whether it will add more production to cool prices. Even if they do open the supply taps, the output boost will likely be minor, keeping any losses in oil prices limited. The real risk is production from Iran coming back online. Supply squeeze What [..]

Weekly comment – Central bank fiesta, OPEC meeting, and nonfarm payrolls

Posted on October 29, 2021 at 1:29 pm GMT

The EUR jumped after the ECB didn’t convince investors it will delay rate hikes while stocks cruised higher as the earnings season cheered up the mood. Next week promises even more fireworks with central bank meetings in America, the United Kingdom, and Australia, an OPEC decision that will decide the direction of oil prices, and the latest US employment report. The highlights: The USD will be in the spotlight, as the Fed concludes its meeting on Wednesday and nonfarm [..]

US Open Note – Bank of Canada takes center stage; dollar loses momentum

Posted on October 27, 2021 at 1:11 pm GMT

BoC rate decision coming up The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is the main event of the day. Policymakers are predicted to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%. Economic growth has fired up, inflation is hot, businesses are feeling optimistic, the housing market is booming, and oil prices continue to climb. Macroeconomic projections that will be updated may provide some hints. The CPI for September came in at 4.4% year on year, more than double the target of 2% and significantly higher than the intended range of 1-3%. Retail sales and employment data [..]

US Open Note – Calm day ahead of busy week; oil around $85

Posted on October 25, 2021 at 1:00 pm GMT

US futures near new highs; Facebook releases its earnings Today’s economic calendar is light, but the rest of the week promises to be very interesting, with central bank meetings in the Eurozone, Canada, and Japan, as well as earnings reports from the technology industry’s heavy hitters. Facebook will launch the earnings campaign immediately following Wall Street’s closing bell. It is somewhat bizarre to watch US futures trading marginally lower from their all-time highs, even as inflation predictions continue to rise. If the tech sector earnings approve, the [..]

US Open Note – Yen still plunges; oil heads towards $82.00

Posted on October 15, 2021 at 1:07 pm GMT

Dollar index on mute today; US retail sales surprised The dollar index is hovering around 94.00 today, following two red days; however, dollar/yen is heading sharply higher towards a fresh three-year high around 114.20 due to a weakened Japanese yen. US retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% for September versus an upwardly revised 0.9% the prior month. A dovish Bank of Japan and growing 2-year U.S.-Japan rate differentials continue to be important factors. US futures are suggesting another positive day, after strong earnings releases. The single currency [..]

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