All Articles Tagged - crude oil

Weekly Comment – RBNZ and PMI data eyed as geopolitical tensions remain ‘hot’

Posted on February 18, 2022 at 1:48 pm GMT

Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe seem to be driving the risk-off sentiment in global markets. Moreover, Fed minutes have dialed back bets for an aggressive 50 basis points interest rate hike in March, hurting the US dollar. In the upcoming week, interest rate decisions from New Zealand and a raft of PMI data from most major economies take center stage, together with the US PCE price index and BoE’s Governor testimony. Highlights: Flash PMI data for February in the Eurozone, UK and Japan [..]

Daily Market Comment – Stock markets tank but FX doesn’t get the memo

Posted on February 18, 2022 at 9:58 am GMT

Equities get hammered until US-Russia meeting calms some nerves Yen advances but broader FX market almost immune to tensions Iran nuclear deal draft keeps oil in check, Fed speakers in focus Geopolitics running the show A series of reports about shelling attacks between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists injected another dose of uncertainty into global markets. Equities suffered the most damage, with the tech-packed Nasdaq losing almost 3% as traders unloaded riskier assets. By contrast, safe havens came back [..]

US Open Note – FOMC minutes next on the radar; Canada CPI surprises

Posted on February 16, 2022 at 2:05 pm GMT

US retail sales beat estimates; FOMC minutes next on the agenda The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting are on investor’s radar today and will be looking for details on its plans to reduce its enormous balance sheet and raise interest rates in 2022, as well as its evolving outlook on inflation. At the meeting on January 25-26, policymakers agreed that raising the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate from near-zero would be “soon appropriate” and discussed the future of the $9 trillion in securities owned by the central bank. [..]

US Open Note – As Russia-Ukraine tensions persist, the dollar strengthens

Posted on February 14, 2022 at 2:02 pm GMT

Ukraine tensions and FOMC minutes in focus; dollar rises As the United States fears that an invasion may be approaching, tensions over Russian forces stationed near Ukraine are entering what might be a pivotal week. The United States is warning of an imminent invasion, while President Vladimir Putin has accused America of failing to satisfy his demands. Russia has denied it is preparing to invade Ukraine, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany is travelling to Kyiv today, a day before visiting Moscow to calm the issue. This week’s focus is on the [..]

US Open Note – US inflation hits fastest pace in four decades

Posted on February 10, 2022 at 2:27 pm GMT

CPI data come in ‘hot’; dollar surges US inflation for January has reached its highest level since February 1982, with the headline CPI rate coming hotter-than-expected at 7.5%. The core CPI measure rose to 6% from 5.5% y/y, while the m/m number came in at 0.6% compared to consensus estimates of 0.5%. The elevated readings could further increase bets for more aggressive interest rate hikes, inducing more volatility into the stock and bond markets. In the aftermath of the inflation data [..]

Weekly Comment – US inflation and GDP data from the UK in the spotlight

Posted on February 4, 2022 at 3:02 pm GMT

The European Central Bank made a hawkish shift after inflation in the monetary union surged to 5.1% in January. President Christine Lagarde refused to rule out interest rate hikes for 2022, bolstering the euro. In the upcoming week, US inflation and preliminary GDP data from the UK will take center stage, together with speeches from the governors of the BoE and BoC. Highlights: In America, inflation data for January will hit the markets on Thursday, with pricing pressures expected to [..]

Daily Market Comment – Improving risk appetite keeps dollar on the defensive

Posted on February 2, 2022 at 10:03 am GMT

Furious recovery in equity markets continues Dollar retreats, sterling shines ahead of BoE Oil awaits OPEC, more earnings and data eyed Optimism returns Equity markets seem to have shaken off the blues that dominated trading in January. With the resilience in corporate earnings confirming the real economy is still in good shape, investors are coming around to the view that markets can live with higher interest rates even if that means more frequent bouts of volatility. Wall Street advanced for [..]

US Open Note – Market in a volatile day; dollar surges to more than 1 ½ -year high

Posted on January 28, 2022 at 1:55 pm GMT

PCE price index ticks up; Rates in US rise December’s PCE data came into focus today from investors. The core PCE price index rose from 4.8% to 4.9% year-on-year. Currently, it is the highest since September 1983 and well above the Fed’s 2% goal rate. Personal income and spending also came in at 0.3% and -0.6% m/m respectively. Because of the widespread distribution of the omicron variety, retail sales and consumption decreased in December of last year. Rates in the United States are rising, [..]

US Open Note – Fed’s ‘hawkish’ tone sends the dollar surging

Posted on January 27, 2022 at 2:00 pm GMT

Powell signals a rate hike in March The first FOMC meeting of 2022 was concluded on Wednesday, with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell setting the stage for a March rate hike, declining to rule out more frequent and larger rate increases. Powell also struck a pessimistic tone regarding the recovery of supply chain disruptions, which are currently driving inflation. However, even if supply bottlenecks subside, the ongoing wage-price spiral could keep inflation elevated throughout 2022, keeping monetary tightening pressures high. [..]

US Open Note – Dollar surges ahead of FOMC decision; stocks back in positive ground

Posted on January 26, 2022 at 1:54 pm GMT

Markets are gradually stabilizing, despite the fact that Russia-Ukraine tensions remain high. The two-day FOMC meeting concludes this afternoon. FOMC meeting ends today The Fed is widely expected to keep a hawkish stance as it prepares the market for a rate lift-off on March 15-16. This year’s three quarterly rate increases have already been factored into the market. In the absence of any new macro projections or Dot Plots, we expect Fed Chair Powell to make a very clear message [..]

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