XM ඇමරිකා එක්සත් ජනපදයේ පදිංචිකරුවන්ට සේවා සැපයීම සිදු නොකරයි.

US political churn muddies corporate horizon: Mike Dolan



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>COLUMN-US political churn muddies corporate horizon: Mike Dolan</title></head><body>

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) -Corporate planners must have a headache as the U.S. political pendulum swings at its fastest rate since World War Two and the related policy churn may act as a drag on future investment.

It's easy to get blasé about increasingly polarised U.S. politics, and history may be a poor guide to many unprecedented developments unfolding. But switching economic policy tack every four years surely takes some toll for those needing to think a decade or more hence.

And this period is indeed highly unusual.

Whoever wins in November, Vice President Kamala Harris' likely nomination as Democrat candidate after Joe Biden stepped aside last weekend means the White House will change hands for the third election in a row for the first time in more than a century.

A win for former President Donald Trump would see the presidency switch parties at a third consecutive vote for the first time since the late 19th century.

There were, of course, seven separate presidents between 1960 and 1984 - though that was due to the assassination of John F. Kennedy and resignation of Richard Nixon rather than election outcomes per se. The party of the president changed only four times in that period.

A win for Trump this year, however, would see the fifth elected change of party in the White House over a similar time frame since 2000.

Congressional calculus is another matter, critical as it is to the policy effectiveness of any administration.

But there have now been five two-year periods since 2000 when the White House, Senate and House have all been controlled by the same party, compared to just three over the prior 30 years. And it's those "trifecta" periods that are most impactful.

Perhaps the rapid ebbs and flows are just the new normal that everyone has to accept.

But if you're a company trying to gain visibility on taxation, trade, immigration and jobs, energy or financial regulation, your horizon must be shortened given the gulf between prospective presidents and parties and the speed at which they're revolving power.


EDGY YEAREND

And that's before you even begin to calculate who might win this year's contest - after two weeks in which Democrats have switched candidates from Biden to Harris and Trump narrowly escaped assassination.

While Trump still seems to have an edge opinion polls in some key marginal states and remains a clear favorite in betting markets, the situation seems fluid. Bookmakers' ascribed probability on his win already narrowed from as high as 70% early last week before Biden stood aside to less than 60% now.

The latest nationwide Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this week also surprised and showed Harris opening up a marginal 2 percentage point lead over Trump - 44% to 42%.

That uncertainty is high is an understatement, even if financial volatility gauges remain peculiarly low and most markets are still buoyant.

Noses to the windscreen, financial markets had started to bet tentatively on so-called Trump trades earlier this month.

Some of those trades - steepening the Treasury yield curve on fiscal concerns or buying oil stocks and selling renewable energy ones, switching to small caps from globally-exposed megacaps or buying bitcoin, and even selling Chinese shares or Mexico's peso - have all gone a bit flat again.

There's three and half more months of this to go.

Yet for companies at the coalface of the economy trying to plan years into the future or trade overseas, unanswered questions about tax, tariff levels and possible retaliation, the size of the workforce due to differing immigration policies and even long-term borrowing costs must be difficult.


UNCERTAINTY INDEX

Beyond financial markets, one measure of the power churn often cited is the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, which is compiled mostly from media stories on such issues.

Not unlike financial markets, that index was relatively subdued through the spring of this year. But it has tripled since June to its highest since last October.

While absolute levels are still below the pandemic shock or even the regional banking wobble early last year, the direction of travel is clear.

And despite decent economic and earnings growth more broadly, business sentiment captured by the ISM surveys of manufacturing and services firms pointed to a rare twin contraction of activity for both sectors last month.

To be sure, NFIB's small business survey showed some uptick last month and small cap stocks seemed to get a burst of optimism on Trump's chances. But the overall sentiment gauge from the survey remains well below long-term averages.

None of these gauges necessarily presages a freeze of corporate activity, but they remain subdued in contrast to the seeming nonchalance on financial markets and still buoyant top-line growth levels.

Water off a duck's back?

Some investors think corporate America is now somewhat inured to the political upheavals beyond some temporary second-guessing.

"For all the consternation around election winners and losers, historically the election effect is fairly short lived with the earnings cycle ultimately shaping market performance in the wake of the election," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis IM.

"Corporates have proven time and again their dynamism and ability to adapt, suggesting investors should have confidence in markets' ability to shake off any short term impacts of election developments," Melson said, adding the economy still looked strong and the independent Federal Reserve was set to ease rates.

That may well be true - but if the political pendulum keeps swinging at this rate they need every ounce of that "dynamism".


The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.


US economic policy uncertainty jumps https://tmsnrt.rs/46gbsOC

US manufacturing and services signal contraction in June https://tmsnrt.rs/3LG7yoI

US small business sentiment below normal https://tmsnrt.rs/3SgwVBy

PredictIt chart on election betting https://tmsnrt.rs/3WyjI9s


By Mike Dolan; Editing by Jamie Freed

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වියාචනය: XM Group සමාගම් ක්‍රියාත්මක කිරීම පමණක් වන සේවා සපයන අතර වෙබ් අඩවියේ හෝ වෙබ් අඩවිය හරහා ලබා ගත හැකි අන්තර්ගතය බැලීමට සහ/හෝ භාවිත කිරීමට පුද්ගලයෙකුට ඉඩ සලසමින් අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකම වෙත ප්‍රවේශය ලබා දෙන අතර වෙනස් කිරීමට හෝ පුළුල් කිරීමට අදහස් නොකරයි. එවැනි ප්‍රවේශය සහ භාවිතය සෑම විටම (i) නියමයන් සහ කොන්දේසි, (ii) අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම් සහ (iii) සම්පූර්ණ වියාචනයට යටත් වේ. එබැවින් එවැනි අන්තර්ගතයක් සාමාන්‍ය තොරතුරුවලට වඩා වැඩි යමක් සපයා නොමැත. විශේෂයෙන්ම, අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ අන්තර්ගතය පෙළඹවීමක් හෝ මූල්‍ය වෙළඳපොළවල කිසිදු ගනුදෙනුවක් සිදු කිරීමට ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. ඕනෑම මූල්‍ය වෙළඳපොළක වෙළඳාම් කිරීම ඔබේ ප්‍රාග්ධනයට සැලකිය යුතු අවදානමක් එක් කරයි.

අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ ප්‍රකාශිත සියලු කරුණු අධ්‍යාපනික/තොරතුරුමය අරමුණු සඳහා පමණක් අදහස් කෙරෙන අතර මූල්‍ය, ආයෝජන බදු හෝ වෙළඳ උපදෙස් සහ නිර්දේශයන්; හෝ අපගේ වෙළඳ මිල පිළිබඳ වාර්තාවක්; හෝ ඕනෑම මූල්‍ය උපකරණයක ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් හෝ ඒ සඳහා පෙළඹවීමක්; හෝ විශේෂ ඉල්ලීමකින් තොරව ඔබ වෙත ලබා දෙන ලද මූල්‍ය ප්‍රවර්ධනයන් ලෙස නොසැලකිය යුතුය.

ඕනෑම තෙවන පාර්ශවීය අන්තර්ගතයක් මෙන්ම XM විසින් සකසන ලද අන්තර්ගතය එනම් අදහස්, පුවත්, පර්යේෂණ, විශ්ලේෂණ, මිල ගණන් සහ වෙනත් තොරතුරු හෝ මෙම වෙබ් අඩවියේ අන්තර්ගත තෙවන පාර්ශවීය වෙබ් අඩවි සඳහා සබැඳි සාමාන්‍ය වෙළඳපොළ විවරණයක් ලෙස "පවතින පරිදි" සපයා ඇති අතර එහි ආයෝජන උපදෙස් ඇතුළත් නොවේ. ඕනෑම අන්තර්ගතයක් ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයක් ලෙස අර්ථ දක්වා ඇති ප්‍රමාණයට, ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයේ ස්වාධීනත්වය ප්‍රවර්ධනය කිරීමට නිර්මාණය කර ඇති නෛතික අවශ්‍යතාවලට අනුකූලව අන්තර්ගතය සකසා නොමැති බවත් එලෙස අරමුණු කර නොමැති බවත් ඔබ සලකා පිළිගත යුතු අතර එබැවින් එය අදාළ නීති සහ රෙගුලාසි යටතේ අලෙවිකරණ සන්නිවේදනයක් ලෙස සලකනු ලැබේ. ඉහත සඳහන් තොරතුරු සලකා මෙතනින් ප්‍රවේශ විය හැකි, ස්වාධීන නොවන ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණ සහ අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම පිළිබඳ අපගේ දැනුම්දීම ඔබ කියවා තේරුම් ගෙන ඇති බව සහතික කර ගන්න.

අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම: ඔබේ ප්‍රාග්ධනය අවදානමේ පවතී. උත්තෝලිත (ලෙවරේජ්) නිෂ්පාදන සෑම දෙනාටම සුදුසු නොවිය හැකිය. කරුණාකර අපගේ අවදානම් අනාවරණය සලකා බලන්න.