Jobs and oil dominate as ports strike ends
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street has weathered an edgy start to the final quarter reasonably well this week, with the September employment report now an obvious final hurdle on Friday and firmer oil prices an irritant even as a three-day U.S. ports strike ends.
As has been the case for weeks, markets are trying to find the balance between signs of persistent growth but at a pace soft enough to sustain disinflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cut hopes.
Labor market soundings so far this week certainly support the former, though brisk job growth and the relatively modest oil price pop on Middle East tensions raised some questions over Fed easing speculation.
At least the threat that this week's ports strike may feed retail price rises looks to have been averted. U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports began reopening late on Thursday after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage deal to settle the industry's biggest work stoppage in nearly half a century.
As Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee pointed out on Thursday, retailers and manufacturers had stockpiled about two weeks worth of items in anticipation of the strike and that should be sufficient now the dispute has ended.
This week's crude oil price rise, aggravated by comments from U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday that Israeli retaliation against Iran's rocket attack could target Tehran's oil facilities, has become a more unpredictable prospect as nerves about weekend events may keep traders on tenterhooks.
Still, despite this week's jump in crude prices CLc1, oil prices are only back to where they were a month ago and continue to track annual declines of more than 10%. U.S. retail gasoline prices remain close to eight-month lows.
And so the scene is set for the September payrolls report later on Friday, with consensus forecasts for another 140,000 new jobs last month - close to August's tally - and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.
Most of the week's labor updates - private sector payrolls, jobless claims, vacancies and layoffs data - show the jobs market remains in relatively rude health.
So for all the cross-currents this week, the S&P500 .SPX has lost little more than 0.5% so far and futures are higher into Friday's open. Implied volatility captured by the VIX index .VIX, however, remains elevated at about 20.
The shifting rates picture and background geopolitics is trickier for Treasuries, where 10-year yields US10YT=RR have pushed up a net 5 basis points this week to 3.85% - but held close to Thursday's close overnight.
Fed futures pricing, with just 66bp of rate cuts now pencilled in by yearend, is leaning towards two further quarter-point Fed rate cuts this year rather than one of those being another 50bp move.
The dollar .DXY has been the big winner all week, not least as central banks around the world turned more dovish on their interest rate signalling just as Fed expectations ebbed.
But the greenback retreated slightly on Friday, partly as sterling GBP= clawed back some of the heavy losses suffered when Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey talked on Thursday of more "activist" and "aggressive" BoE easing.
Bailey's comments were dampened on Friday by his chief economist Huw Pill, who said "it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast."
Stock markets around the world .MIWD00000PUS were marginally higher on Friday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI resuming its recent steep climb on Chinese stimulus plans after a stumble on Thursday. The offshore yuan CNH= weakened.
In Europe, attention was focussed on European Union trade negotiations that struggled to find a consensus on raising tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese electric vehicle imports - with Europe's auto sector suffering multiple hits from the rivalry and dragging on region's industrial economy.
With Germany voting against the tariffs because of fears of Chinese retaliation against German carmakers, EU countries failed to vote clearly in favour or against, leaving the European Commission to decide, EU sources told Reuters on Friday.
In a later statement, the Commission said the proposal to impose definitive tariffs has obtained the necessary support - but it would continue negotiations with China "to explore an alternative solution that would have to be fully WTO-compatible."
European auto shares .SXAP, which had been the worst performing sector this week with losses of almost 7% due to the tariff standoff and mounting profit warnings, jumped back almost 1% on Friday after the reports.
Elsewhere, the latest data on U.S. money market funds showed assets under management jumped again in the latest week to a new record of $6.46 trillion - puzzling some who had expected money to exit these cash-like funds as Fed rate cuts got underway.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:
* US September employment report; Mexico August jobless rate
* New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks
* US corporate earnings: Apogee Enterprises
U.S. hiring has narrowed to fewer industries https://reut.rs/3NcTcxc
Jobless claims and Challenger Gray https://reut.rs/4eqjY0X
Cargo ships stuck outside US ports as of Oct 3 https://reut.rs/3ZQ4ZZD
Iranian oil infrastructure https://reut.rs/3ZN17sk
Fund flows: U.S. equity sector funds https://tmsnrt.rs/40SDRqx
By Mike Dolan, editing by Mark Heinrich
mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com
අදාළ වත්කම්
නවතම පුවත්
වියාචනය: XM Group සමාගම් ක්රියාත්මක කිරීම පමණක් වන සේවා සපයන අතර වෙබ් අඩවියේ හෝ වෙබ් අඩවිය හරහා ලබා ගත හැකි අන්තර්ගතය බැලීමට සහ/හෝ භාවිත කිරීමට පුද්ගලයෙකුට ඉඩ සලසමින් අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකම වෙත ප්රවේශය ලබා දෙන අතර වෙනස් කිරීමට හෝ පුළුල් කිරීමට අදහස් නොකරයි. එවැනි ප්රවේශය සහ භාවිතය සෑම විටම (i) නියමයන් සහ කොන්දේසි, (ii) අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම් සහ (iii) සම්පූර්ණ වියාචනයට යටත් වේ. එබැවින් එවැනි අන්තර්ගතයක් සාමාන්ය තොරතුරුවලට වඩා වැඩි යමක් සපයා නොමැත. විශේෂයෙන්ම, අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ අන්තර්ගතය පෙළඹවීමක් හෝ මූල්ය වෙළඳපොළවල කිසිදු ගනුදෙනුවක් සිදු කිරීමට ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. ඕනෑම මූල්ය වෙළඳපොළක වෙළඳාම් කිරීම ඔබේ ප්රාග්ධනයට සැලකිය යුතු අවදානමක් එක් කරයි.
අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ ප්රකාශිත සියලු කරුණු අධ්යාපනික/තොරතුරුමය අරමුණු සඳහා පමණක් අදහස් කෙරෙන අතර මූල්ය, ආයෝජන බදු හෝ වෙළඳ උපදෙස් සහ නිර්දේශයන්; හෝ අපගේ වෙළඳ මිල පිළිබඳ වාර්තාවක්; හෝ ඕනෑම මූල්ය උපකරණයක ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් හෝ ඒ සඳහා පෙළඹවීමක්; හෝ විශේෂ ඉල්ලීමකින් තොරව ඔබ වෙත ලබා දෙන ලද මූල්ය ප්රවර්ධනයන් ලෙස නොසැලකිය යුතුය.
ඕනෑම තෙවන පාර්ශවීය අන්තර්ගතයක් මෙන්ම XM විසින් සකසන ලද අන්තර්ගතය එනම් අදහස්, පුවත්, පර්යේෂණ, විශ්ලේෂණ, මිල ගණන් සහ වෙනත් තොරතුරු හෝ මෙම වෙබ් අඩවියේ අන්තර්ගත තෙවන පාර්ශවීය වෙබ් අඩවි සඳහා සබැඳි සාමාන්ය වෙළඳපොළ විවරණයක් ලෙස "පවතින පරිදි" සපයා ඇති අතර එහි ආයෝජන උපදෙස් ඇතුළත් නොවේ. ඕනෑම අන්තර්ගතයක් ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයක් ලෙස අර්ථ දක්වා ඇති ප්රමාණයට, ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයේ ස්වාධීනත්වය ප්රවර්ධනය කිරීමට නිර්මාණය කර ඇති නෛතික අවශ්යතාවලට අනුකූලව අන්තර්ගතය සකසා නොමැති බවත් එලෙස අරමුණු කර නොමැති බවත් ඔබ සලකා පිළිගත යුතු අතර එබැවින් එය අදාළ නීති සහ රෙගුලාසි යටතේ අලෙවිකරණ සන්නිවේදනයක් ලෙස සලකනු ලැබේ. ඉහත සඳහන් තොරතුරු සලකා මෙතනින් ප්රවේශ විය හැකි, ස්වාධීන නොවන ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණ සහ අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම පිළිබඳ අපගේ දැනුම්දීම ඔබ කියවා තේරුම් ගෙන ඇති බව සහතික කර ගන්න.
