US natgas prices jump 5% to 14-week high as Helene batters US Southeast
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 27 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a 14-week high on Friday as Hurricane Helene battered the U.S. Southeast after causing Gulf of Mexico producers to cut output and knocking out power to millions of customers in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Energy traders noted that prices were also supported as the amount of gas flowing to Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana was on track to match a high of around 35 million cubic feet per day that it hit in mid-August. That is still a very small amount of gas. The first phase of the Plaquemines project will have the capacity to turn about 1.8 billion cubic feet per day of gas into LNG.
Analysts have said the plant could start producing LNG in test mode over the next month or so. Officials at Venture Global were not immediately available for comment.
Another factor analysts have noted that has supported prices in recent weeks was that storage injections in July, August and so far in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997. That is because many producers cut output earlier this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.9 cents, or 5.4%, from where they traded on Thursday to settle at $2.902 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Friday, their highest close since June 18.
That, however, was up about 12% from where the less expensive October contract closed when it was still the front-month on Thursday.
That expiration-caused price increase pushed the front-month back into technically overbought territory for the third time this week after hitting that level on Monday and Wednesday.
For the week, the contract was up about 19%, putting it on track for a fifth week of gains for the first time since April 2022. During that time, the front-month has gained about 43%.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast the remnants of Helene, now a tropical depression, would remain over Tennessee and Kentucky over the weekend.
There were currently about 4.6 million homes and businesses without power, mostly in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, from Helene. That is down from around 5.2 million affected by the storm as utilities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina have been able to restore service to some customers since the storm slammed into the Florida Panhandle late Thursday.
Although storms are more likely to reduce gas prices and demand through power outages and shutting of liquefied natural gas export plants, analysts said this storm was on track to miss the LNG plants.
That means demand for gas from those LNG export plants should remain high at the same time that some Gulf Coast producers have cut output. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said that about 18%, or 0.3 bcfd, of gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was still shut-in for Helene.
More than 75% of U.S. gas production still comes from big inland shale basins like Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio and the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, so most of the country's gas output should remain safe from the storm.
Week ended Sep 27 Actual | Week ended Sep 20 Actual | Year ago Sep 27 | Five-year average Sep 27 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +60 | +47 | +87 | +98 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,552 | 3,492 | 3,420 | 3,357 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 5.8% | 7.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.73 | 2.75 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.24 | 12.24 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.19 | 13.10 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 51 | 39 | 30 | 54 | 83 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 97 | 100 | 105 | 93 | 68 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 148 | 139 | 135 | 147 | 151 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.9 | 101.8 | 101.2 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.6 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.9 | 109.6 | 108.8 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.9 | 40.5 | 38.2 | 37.0 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.6 | 78.4 | 76.6 | 74.7 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 99.6 | 98.4 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 78 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 27 | Week ended Sep 20 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 46 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.64 | 2.62 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.23 | 1.55 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.00 | 2.98 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.21 | 1.56 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.52 | 2.47 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.65 | 1.97 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.47 | 2.43 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.39 | 0.81 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.07 | 0.15 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 36.50 | 42.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 37.00 | 45.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 25.25 | 29.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 50.50 | 49.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 36.00 | 33.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 34.75 | 31.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Daniel Wallis
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
අදාළ වත්කම්
නවතම පුවත්
වියාචනය: XM Group සමාගම් ක්රියාත්මක කිරීම පමණක් වන සේවා සපයන අතර වෙබ් අඩවියේ හෝ වෙබ් අඩවිය හරහා ලබා ගත හැකි අන්තර්ගතය බැලීමට සහ/හෝ භාවිත කිරීමට පුද්ගලයෙකුට ඉඩ සලසමින් අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකම වෙත ප්රවේශය ලබා දෙන අතර වෙනස් කිරීමට හෝ පුළුල් කිරීමට අදහස් නොකරයි. එවැනි ප්රවේශය සහ භාවිතය සෑම විටම (i) නියමයන් සහ කොන්දේසි, (ii) අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම් සහ (iii) සම්පූර්ණ වියාචනයට යටත් වේ. එබැවින් එවැනි අන්තර්ගතයක් සාමාන්ය තොරතුරුවලට වඩා වැඩි යමක් සපයා නොමැත. විශේෂයෙන්ම, අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ අන්තර්ගතය පෙළඹවීමක් හෝ මූල්ය වෙළඳපොළවල කිසිදු ගනුදෙනුවක් සිදු කිරීමට ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. ඕනෑම මූල්ය වෙළඳපොළක වෙළඳාම් කිරීම ඔබේ ප්රාග්ධනයට සැලකිය යුතු අවදානමක් එක් කරයි.
අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ ප්රකාශිත සියලු කරුණු අධ්යාපනික/තොරතුරුමය අරමුණු සඳහා පමණක් අදහස් කෙරෙන අතර මූල්ය, ආයෝජන බදු හෝ වෙළඳ උපදෙස් සහ නිර්දේශයන්; හෝ අපගේ වෙළඳ මිල පිළිබඳ වාර්තාවක්; හෝ ඕනෑම මූල්ය උපකරණයක ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් හෝ ඒ සඳහා පෙළඹවීමක්; හෝ විශේෂ ඉල්ලීමකින් තොරව ඔබ වෙත ලබා දෙන ලද මූල්ය ප්රවර්ධනයන් ලෙස නොසැලකිය යුතුය.
ඕනෑම තෙවන පාර්ශවීය අන්තර්ගතයක් මෙන්ම XM විසින් සකසන ලද අන්තර්ගතය එනම් අදහස්, පුවත්, පර්යේෂණ, විශ්ලේෂණ, මිල ගණන් සහ වෙනත් තොරතුරු හෝ මෙම වෙබ් අඩවියේ අන්තර්ගත තෙවන පාර්ශවීය වෙබ් අඩවි සඳහා සබැඳි සාමාන්ය වෙළඳපොළ විවරණයක් ලෙස "පවතින පරිදි" සපයා ඇති අතර එහි ආයෝජන උපදෙස් ඇතුළත් නොවේ. ඕනෑම අන්තර්ගතයක් ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයක් ලෙස අර්ථ දක්වා ඇති ප්රමාණයට, ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයේ ස්වාධීනත්වය ප්රවර්ධනය කිරීමට නිර්මාණය කර ඇති නෛතික අවශ්යතාවලට අනුකූලව අන්තර්ගතය සකසා නොමැති බවත් එලෙස අරමුණු කර නොමැති බවත් ඔබ සලකා පිළිගත යුතු අතර එබැවින් එය අදාළ නීති සහ රෙගුලාසි යටතේ අලෙවිකරණ සන්නිවේදනයක් ලෙස සලකනු ලැබේ. ඉහත සඳහන් තොරතුරු සලකා මෙතනින් ප්රවේශ විය හැකි, ස්වාධීන නොවන ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණ සහ අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම පිළිබඳ අපගේ දැනුම්දීම ඔබ කියවා තේරුම් ගෙන ඇති බව සහතික කර ගන්න.