AUDNZD has finally risen above the 1.0437 area that kept the bulls under control since early December, surpassing its shorter-term moving averages (SMAs) and expanding into the Ichimoku cloud as well.

The strengthening RSI and the improving MACD suggest that positive sentiment could stretch into the short-term, with the spotlight turning now to the 200-day SMA. But for the bulls to challenge the line, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.0519 of the 1.0864-1.0306 downleg should let the door open. If that is the case, the 50% Fibonacci of 1.0582 which currently intersects with the upper surface of the cloud could come next in defense, blocking any improvement towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.0650.

On the flip side, selling interest could resume below the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.0437, with the decline expected to reach the 1.0306 trough if the 20-day SMA is breached too. If there are steeper declines, the medium-term picture would switch back to bearish from neutral and all attention would turn to the 1.0274-1.0261 strong support area.