Crown firmer before likely Czech rate cut as FX rebound
PRAGUE, Nov 7 (Reuters) -The crown firmed before a likely eighth straight interest rate cut from the Czech central bank on Thursday as central Europeancurrencies rebounded from losses coming after Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election victory.
Hungary's forint recovered from its lowest levels in almost two years, with a weaker dollar providing some room to gain. Global markets, including in central Europe, were eyeing a U.S. Federal Reserve rate meeting while still digesting the policy implications of a Trump presidency.
In the Czech Republic, markets were positioned for a continued rate-cutting cycle as the large majority of analysts forecast a 25-basis-point reduction later on Thursday.
The bank has cut by a combined 275 basis points since last December, and analysts expect more cuts next year. Policymakers have said easing could continue but with caution.
"The question is how significantly (the central bank) will rewrite (its update economic) forecast in a dovish direction and how the board will also continue to accentuate several pro-inflationary risks (like) high services inflation and a weaker crown," bank CSOB said.
The crown EURCZK= was up 0.1% at 25.297 to the euro at 0941 GMT, back at levels seen before Wednesday when it fell to 25.450.
Among more-volatile peers, Hungary's forint EURHUF= gained 0.5% in morning trade to trade at 407.70 per euro, off a low of 412.50. Poland's zloty EURPLN= rose 0.25% to 4.344 per euro after falling to 4.377, its lowest since June, in the previous session.
Analysts expect central European currencies will continue to face pressure in the coming period as markets look to what policies that Trump, who made tariffs and tax cuts key elements of his pitch to voters, will put in place and who will fill out his team.
"With the eurozone generally under pressure, the threat of tariffs and a stronger dollar cannot miss the CEE region and we expect pressure on FX to resume," ING said.
It said the zloty could outperform peers, though, "due to a reversal in short positioning, Poland's lower export and lower automotive share, its stronger economy and the National Bank of Poland still waiting on the sidelines with rate cuts."
Markets will watch Polish central bank Governor Adam Glapinski later on Thursday when he gives no clues about the bank's outlook after it left rates on hold on Wednesday, like it has done since two initial cuts toward the end of 2023.
"Financial markets are settling into the reality of the new U.S. president," Warsaw-based Bank Millennium said. "In our opinion, investors may currently be moving into the 'buy rumors, sell facts' phase, i.e. attempts to reverse current trends."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1041 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2970 | 25.3190 | +0.09% | -2.35% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 407.7000 | 409.6000 | +0.47% | -6.01% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3440 | 4.3550 | +0.25% | +0.01% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9760 | 4.9755 | -0.01% | -0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9400 | 117.0600 | +0.10% | +0.26% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1673.17 | 1665.4300 | +0.46% | +18.33% |
Budapest | .BUX | 76415.80 | 75906.74 | +0.67% | +26.06% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2287.56 | 2241.24 | +2.07% | -2.37% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17314.22 | 17281.07 | +0.19% | +12.64% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4100 | -0.0150 | +120bps | -5bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7050 | -0.0990 | +144bps | -16bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0560 | -0.0430 | +159bps | -12bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9950 | -0.0210 | +278bps | -5bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4390 | -0.0210 | +318bps | -8bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.7910 | -0.0120 | +332bps | -9bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.85 | 3.65 | 3.53 | 4.04 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 7.10 | 6.98 | 6.82 | 6.54 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.69 | 5.29 | 4.96 | 5.84 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Editing by Angus MacSwan
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