US natgas ticks up ahead of federal storage report
Aug 15 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday, buoyed by forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather ahead of a governor report expected to show last week's storage build was smaller than usual.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 3 cents, or about 1.4%, to $2.25 per million British thermal units, at 9:35 a.m. EDT (1335 GMT).
"I think natural gas prices are still partially supported by the August heat in the near and short term. We are still expecting hotter-than-normal weather even at the 30-day horizon," said Zhu Zhen, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Co in Oklahoma City.
"But the longer-term price movement is largely constrained by the large storage surplus against the five-year average and expected record storage level at the end of the injection season"
Financial firm LSEG estimated 227 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher than the 224 CDDs estimated on Wednesday. The normal for this time of year is 186 CDDs.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to edge up from 105.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106.8 bcfd next week.
Analysts forecast U.S. utilities likely added a much smaller-than-usual 6 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage last week. That compared with an injection of 33 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 43 bcf for this time of year.EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
"Gas markets look to be tightly supplied this winter, while stalling US gas production and new-found LNG importers in Egypt and Brazil could be the final straw for a sustainable bullish momentum for buyers across Europe and Asia," Rabobank said in a note.
Dutch and British gas wholesale prices were largely flat but still near eight-month highs as well-filled storages balanced concerns over potential supply disruptions ahead of the winter season.NG/EU
Week ended Aug 9 forecasts | Week ended Aug 2 Actual | Year ago Aug 2 | Five-year average Aug 2 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +6 | +21 | +25 | +38 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,276 | 3,270 | 2,022 | 2,846 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 13.4% | 14.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.22 | 2.18 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.65 | 12.70 | 11.21 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.72 | 12.66 | 12.43 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 227 | 224 | 214 | 188 | 180 |
U.S. GFS TDDs- | 232 | 230 | 216 | 193 | 186 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.1 | 101.7 | 102.0 | 102.3 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 111.0 | 109.3 | 109.6 | N/A | 103.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 50.7 | 46.6 | 47.5 | 48.3 | 43.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.9 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 88.2 | 84.0 | 85.1 | 84.8 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 109.9 | 105.5 | 106.8 | N/A | 96.1 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 78 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 16 | Week ended Aug 9 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 8 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 45 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.18 | 2.16 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.59 | 1.61 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.74 | 2.83 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.55 | 1.49 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.83 | 1.77 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.72 | 1.66 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.97 | 1.93 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.46 | 0.30 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.67 | 0.71 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.25 | 37.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 37.50 | 38.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 47.50 | 29.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 34.00 | 35.50 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 31.50 | 32.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 30.50 | 31.50 |
Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee And Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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