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US natgas prices jump 7% to one-week high on rising power, LNG demand



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

June 3 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures soared about 7%to a one-week high on Monday on forecasts for demand to rise as hot weather promptspower generators to burn more fuel to run air conditioners and as flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increase.

Traders saidU.S. prices were also supportedby a 5% jumpin gas prices in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 due to an unplanned shutdown of an offshore production hub in Norway.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 16.9 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $2.756 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since May 22.

In the spot market, powerprices in California and Arizona turned negative again, while next-day gas prices in northern California fell to their lowest since 2001 amid little demand and ample cheap hydropower and other renewable supplies.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 98.1 bcfd in May, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through June 18 except for some near-normaldays from June 8-12.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 94.9 bcfd this week to 95.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 7.1 bcfd so far in June, up from a record 7.0 bcfd in May, as Mexican generators burn more gas to meet growing power demand and New Fortress Energy NFE.O pulls in more U.S. gas for its LNG export plant in Altamira, Mexico.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 13.3 bcfd so far in June, up from 12.9 bcfd in May.

That, however, remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing maintenance at several plants, including Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana.

In other LNG news, liquefaction Train 2 at Freeport LNG's export plant tripped on May 30, according to a company filing with state environmental regulators.

Data from LSEG showed that feedgas to the three-train 2.1-bcfd Freeport slid from 2.0 bcfd on May 29 to 1.6 bcfd on May 30 before returning to an expected 2.0 bcfd on Monday.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a five-month high of $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and near a five-month high of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

But no matter how high gas prices rise overseas, U.S. LNG sales will remain limited until all of the export plants complete their maintenance work.

The U.S. can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG when all plants are operating at full power. The plants, however, can pull in a little more gas since they consume some of the fuel to power operations.

Week ended May 31 Forecast

Week ended May 24 Actual

Year ago May 31

Five-year average

May 31


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+86

+84

+105

+103


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,881

2,795

2,520

2,312


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

24.6%

26.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.69

2.59

2.47

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.04

10.95

10.32

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.91

11.96

10.61

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

10

11

18

18

20

U.S. GFS CDDs

167

154

119

143

140

U.S. GFS TDDs

177

165

137

161

160

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

99.1

98.5

98.8

103.1

94.7

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.0

7.2

7.1

7.9

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

106.1

105.7

105.9

111.0

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

7.1

7.0

6.6

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

13.1

13.2

13.0

11.8

8.5

U.S. Commercial

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.8

U.S. Residential

4.1

3.8

3.8

3.8

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

33.6

35.8

36.3

38.1

36.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.6

21.7

21.2

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

70.9

72.6

73.2

74.5

73.6

Total U.S. Demand

93.0

94.9

95.3

95.0

90.4







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

78

77

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

79

78

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

80

80

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 7

Week ended May 31

Week ended May 24

Week ended May 17

Week ended May 10

Wind

9

11

13

10

13

Solar

7

6

6

6

6

Hydro

7

7

7

8

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

40

40

38

40

41

Coal

14

14

14

14

14

Nuclear

22

20

19

20

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.78

1.87


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.20

1.25


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

1.56

1.98


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.15

1.11


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.22

1.39


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.24

1.32


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

0.93

1.35


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.08

0.54




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.72

0.84



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

22.75

25.00



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

22.75

25.75


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

27.75

36.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

23.50

25.75




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

-2.50

14.75


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

-6.50

12.75




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio and Leslie Adler

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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