Treasuries slip, dollar firm as markets grapple with US politics
Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Dollar shade firmer, bond futures ease after Trump attack
PredictIT shows increased chance of Republican win after incident
Eyes on China economic data, Third Plenum meeting
Fed's Powell talks later Monday, markets bet on Sept cut
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, July 15 (Reuters) -U.S. bond futures slipped and the dollar firmed on Monday as investors wagered the attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump made his victory more likely, while injecting a whole new level of political uncertainty into markets.
A holiday in Japan made for thin trading conditions and the early action was confined to a modest rise in the dollar while Treasury futures slipped.
Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.
Proposals to levy tariffs on imports would push prices higher while eating into consumer spending power. Meanwhile, restrictions on migration could tighten the labour market and put upward pressure on wages.
"The market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterized by a stronger U.S. dollar and a steepening of the U.S. Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have further improved following this incident," said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring investments in Singapore.
Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 38 cents. The current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win the election as Democrats.
The dollar edged up 0.3% on the Japanese yen to 158.15 JPY=EBS but remained well short of its recent 161.96 top following a bout of suspected intervention.
The euro eased slightly to $1.0883 EUR=EBS, and the dollar index firmed a shade to 104.20 =USD.
Futures for 10-year Treasuries slipped 13 ticks TYc1, while cash bonds were untraded due to the Japanese holiday.
S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 were both little changed.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 was shut, but futures NKc1 were trading at 41,300 compared to a cash close of 41,190.
A busy week for data kicks off with Chinese gross domestic product on Monday where annual growth is seen slowing slightly to 5.1% in the second quarter. Retail sales and industrial output for June are also due, while China's once-in-five-year gathering of top officials runs from July 15-18.
Figures from the United States include retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and weekly jobless claims.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears later Monday and is bound to be asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier. FEDWATCH
The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to hold rates at 3.75%, ahead of another cut seen likely in September. 0#ECBWATCH
Among the host of companies reporting earnings this week are Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
In commodity markets, gold held at $2,408 an ounce XAU=, just off last week's top of $2,424. GOL/
Oil prices inched up, having fallen on Friday amid signs of progress on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. O/R
Brent LCOc1 gained 28 cents to $85.31 a barrel, while U.S. crude CLc1 rose 31 cents to $82.52 per barrel.
Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Lisa Shumaker
To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: 0#.INDEXA
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