No surprises from US PCE inflation to alter Fed easing path
Aug 30 (Reuters) -The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.1% gain in June, the Commerce Department said on Friday, matching economists' forecasts.
The data looks unlikely to divert the Federal reserve, which tracks the PCE price measures as an inflation gauge for monetary policy, from lowering interest rates at least 25 basis points in September.
In the 12 months through July, the PCE price index increased 2.5%, matching June's gain and beating the 2.6% gain expected by economists polled by Reuters. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, matching the increase in June. nL1N3KG11P
MARKET REACTION:
STOCKS: U.S. stock futures were up 0.35%, spinning in a narrow range and pointing to a steady opening on Wall Street
BONDS: The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield US10YT=TWEB ticked up to 4.877% and the two-year yield US2YT=TWEB rose to 4.927%
FOREX: The dollar index =USD firmed 0.15% , while the euro EUR=EBS turned 0.09% easier
COMMENTS:
SAM STOVALL, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFRA RESEARCH, ALLENTOWN, PA
"The report was pretty much right on target as analysts had been expecting. The equity and fixed income markets have not responded. This report was a non-event. It does confirm what Fed Chair Powell said that the focus is likely to be on employment trends because the belief is that inflationary trends are likely to continue to work their way down to the 2% target."
"Inflation is not something the Fed is worried about. The Fed, however, is going to be keeping its finger on the pulse of employment."
CAMERON DAWSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NEWEDGE WEALTH, NEW YORK
"Investors are seeing another sign of being in a soft landing - you have disinflation or at least not an acceleration of inflation, but you still have a resilient personal income, that's growing at a healthy pace and not coming at the expense of growth.
"If you see growth remain resilient, it suggests that the Fed doesn't have to react with urgency, but you have this distillation, which suggests that there is room for the Fed to tweak rates. It's another one of those Goldilocks kind of reports really threading a needle right down the center. The market is really getting exactly what it wanted.
PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK
“These are good numbers and of course they indicate that inflation has peaked and continues to move lower.”
“Personal income (growth) is not overly strong, and consumption continues to move higher, and that indicates that the prospect for recession in the first six months of 2025 is nil at best.”
“Obviously we are going to get a rate cut and I think it that whether it's 25 or 50, that's still debatable and that will all depend on next week's employment data. If the data comes in much weaker than expected, let's say there's (payrolls) growth of fewer than 100,000 that raises the prospect prospects for a 50-basis-point rate cut, especially with inflation moving in the right direction.”
“I see three rate cuts and I see the possibility of a half a percent in September, depending on the employment data. If not, it'll be 25-basis-point cut in September and then 50-basis-point cut in December.”
(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)
</body></html>Senaste nytt
Ansvarsfriskrivning: XM Group-enheter tillhandahåller sin tjänst enbart för exekvering och tillgången till vår onlinehandelsplattform, som innebär att en person kan se och/eller använda tillgängligt innehåll på eller via webbplatsen, påverkar eller utökar inte detta, vilket inte heller varit avsikten. Denna tillgång och användning omfattas alltid av i) villkor, ii) riskvarningar och iii) fullständig ansvarsfriskrivning. Detta innehåll tillhandahålls därför uteslutande som allmän information. Var framför allt medveten om att innehållet på vår onlinehandelsplattform varken utgör en uppmaning eller ett erbjudande om att ingå några transaktioner på de finansiella marknaderna. Handel på alla finansiella marknader involverar en betydande risk för ditt kapital.
Allt material som publiceras på denna sida är enbart avsett för utbildnings- eller informationssyften och innehåller inte – och ska inte heller anses innehålla – rådgivning och rekommendationer om finansiella frågor, investeringsskatt eller handel, dokumentation av våra handelskurser eller ett erbjudande om, eller en uppmaning till, en transaktion i finansiella instrument eller oönskade finansiella erbjudanden som är riktade till dig.
Tredjepartsinnehåll, liksom innehåll framtaget av XM såsom synpunkter, nyheter, forskningsrön, analyser, kurser, andra uppgifter eller länkar till tredjepartssajter som återfinns på denna webbplats, tillhandahålls i befintligt skick, som allmän marknadskommentar, och utgör ingen investeringsrådgivning. I den mån som något innehåll tolkas som investeringsforskning måste det noteras och accepteras att innehållet varken har varit avsett som oberoende investeringsforskning eller har utarbetats i enlighet med de rättsliga kraven för att främja ett sådant syfte, och därför är att betrakta som marknadskommunikation enligt tillämpliga lagar och föreskrifter. Se till så att du har läst och förstått vårt meddelande om icke-oberoende investeringsforskning och riskvarning om ovannämnda information, som finns här.
