FX ease further, crown touches six-week low
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Sept 30 (Reuters) -The Czech crown hit a six-week low and Hungary's forint fell for a fourth consecutive session on Monday as central European currencies stayed on a downward slope, with markets looking for new clues on the pace of monetary easing in the region.
The Polish and Romanian central banks were due to meet this week, following rate cuts in the Czech Republic and Hungary last week.
On Monday, Poland's preliminary inflation was a touch higher than expected. The country's rate setters have been on hold since last year when they cut borrowing costs twice in quick succession.
The Polish central bank (NBP) announces its rates decision on Wednesday, followed by a news conference from the governor the following day.
"The press conference on Thursday may provide more insights into the possible timing of a rate cut," Erste Group Bank said in a note.
"Recently, there have been increasing voices from MPC members suggesting that the NBP may resume its monetary easing as early as March 2025," they said.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= had fallen 0.2% to 4.279 per euro by mid-morning as central European currencies failed to take advantage of a softer dollar.
Stocks in the region also mostly fell, following in the direction of European peers.
In Romania, the central bank meets on Friday and is expected by most to stay on hold after two previous cuts, as it assesses a high deficit and the inflationary impact of tax hikes in the pipeline. The leu EURRON= was steady at 4.9756 per euro.
"Surveys are mixed and the weak economy and falling inflation increase the chance of another rate cut from the current 6.50% (in Romania)," ING said.
On currency markets, however, ING said "the focus remains on the global story".
The crown lost 0.2% to 25.188 to the euro and Hungary's forint EURHUF= extended its losses from last week as it slid 0.2% on the day to trade at 397.60 per euro.
Weaker-than-expected European economic indicators were a major factor in the weakening of the forint, MBH Bank said in a note.
The European Commission released data on Friday which showed an euro zone economic sentiment deteriorated in September, while a poorer economic outlook published last Thursday in Germany, the region's biggest trade partner, also put some pressure on markets.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1119 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1880 | 25.1450 | -0.17% | -1.93% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 397.6000 | 396.9000 | -0.18% | -3.63% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2790 | 4.2720 | -0.16% | +1.53% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9756 | 4.9755 | -0.00% | -0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0000 | 117.0800 | +0.07% | +0.21% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1616.01 | 1609.8600 | +0.38% | +14.28% |
Budapest | .BUX | 74358.86 | 74510.83 | -0.20% | +22.66% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2341.02 | 2382.95 | -1.76% | -0.08% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17633.69 | 17685.61 | -0.29% | +14.72% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.1900 | 0.0090 | +107bps | -2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.3100 | -0.0590 | +132bps | -9bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.6760 | 0.0130 | +151bps | -2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6840 | 0.0290 | +257bps | +0bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.9060 | 0.0200 | +291bps | -1bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.2620 | -0.0180 | +309bps | -5bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.71 | 3.42 | 3.11 | 4.19 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.30 | 5.89 | 5.39 | 6.32 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.77 | 5.39 | 4.73 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** |
Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri
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