Currencies little changed ahead of Romanian central bank decision
WARSAW, Aug 7 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were little changed on Wednesday after a volatile start to the week for global markets as investors awaited an interest rate decision by the Romanian central bank.
A slim majority of analysts surveyed expect the bank to deliver a second consecutive quarter-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, but the scope for further easing was limited ahead of elections later this year.
"From a market perspective, EUR/RON remains in a narrow range of 4.966-4.977 and the central bank meeting won't change that today or later this year," ING Bank, which expects no change in rates, said in a statement.
"The central bank began its latest cutting cycle as the last one in the CEE region in July. In the baseline scenario, we expect a second rate cut in November, the last of the year."
The leu EURRON= traded at 4.9766 per euro at 0824 GMT. The Czech crown EURCZK= was also stable at 25.2650 and the Hungarian forint EURHUF= at 398 per euro.
"The forint weakened moderately against the euro yesterday, starting the day at levels slightly below 398 this morning," MBH Bank said in a note.
"If the improving sentiment were to lead to a smaller Fed rate cut, the Hungarian currency's interest rate advantage could be smaller, which could contribute to a more moderate weakening of the forint."
MBH Bank analysts said Wednesday's slightly better than expected domestic industrial production data had no visible impact on the forint for now.
Hungary's industrial output fell by an annual 8.2% in June based on preliminary unadjusted data, above analyst forecasts for an 8.4% drop, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was unchanged on the day at 4.3130 per euro.
"In our opinion, the market, deprived of sources of fundamental volatility, can look for potential moves in technical factors. Even more so in the light of the recent extremely dynamic movements on financial market," Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.
"As a result, the EUR/PLN exchange rate, which remains above the level of 4.30, may once again try to approach the barrier of 4.33. Treasury bond yields should also initiate a slight upward movement."
Central European currencies are facing diverse outlooks for the next 12 months, with the Polish zloty and Czech crown posting gains while the forint and the leu are expected to weaken, a Reuters poll found on Wednesday.
The Warsaw stock exchange blue-chip index .WIG20 fell 0.4% while other bourses in the region rose by 0.7%-1.2%.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1024 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2650 | 25.2750 | +0.04% | -2.23% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 398.0000 | 398.1000 | +0.03% | -3.72% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3130 | 4.3115 | -0.03% | +0.73% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9766 | 4.9775 | +0.02% | -0.05% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9200 | 117.0200 | +0.09% | +0.28% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1549.48 | 1530.6500 | +1.23% | +9.58% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 70811.57 | 70321.83 | +0.70% | +16.81% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2228.20 | 2237.76 | -0.43% | -4.90% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18026.65 | 17872.67 | +0.86% | +17.28% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4420 | 0.0090 | +100bps | -7bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4540 | 0.0010 | +127bps | -9bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.6800 | 0.0290 | +141bps | -6bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.7670 | 0.0530 | +233bps | -3bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.0280 | 0.0400 | +284bps | -5bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.2240 | 0.0830 | +295bps | -1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.00 | 3.56 | 3.20 | 4.43 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.53 | 6.06 | 5.63 | 6.53 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.71 | 5.39 | 4.92 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, Luiza Ilie in Bucharest; Editing by Bernadette Baum
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