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EURUSD


XM-анализ

Week Ahead – US CPI to shift market focus back to data after Trump shock

After Trump comeback, normality to return to markets with US CPIGDP data from UK and Japan to also be importantBut volatility to likely persist as markets assess impact of Trump 2.0US CPI eyed as rate cut bets fade after Trump winDonald Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with a euphoric response by the markets. Wall Street and Bitcoin rallied to record highs, while the US dollar skyrocketed to 4-month highs.
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Daily Comment – Fed delivers rate cut, stocks rally but dollar not impressed

Fed cuts rates and keeps door open to a December movePowell appears confident about the inflation outlookEquities’ euphoria continues, strongest weekly rally of 2024Yen manages to gain against the US dollarThe Fed announces a rate cutWith the markets still digesting Trump’s win, the Fed announced the much-anticipated rate cut. Unswayed by concerns that Trump’s second term might lead to extreme protectionism and thus keep inflation high, the FOMC cut rates by 25bps, with Chairman Powell app
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Daily Comment – Dollar pauses rally ahead of Fed, BoE meets as well

Dollar traders take a breather as Fed decision loomsFocus to fall on how likely a pause is in coming monthsBoE expected to cut, could take the sidelines in DecemberWall Street continues to celebrate Trump’s winWill the US election outcome impact Fed policy?After hitting a four-month high on the heels of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the dollar is pulling back today, as traders may have decided to lock some profits after the sharp rally and ahead of the Fed decision later today.Wi
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Quick Brief – What’s next for the markets after Trump’s victory?

Trump is back in the White House; dollar becomes king againSelection of cabinet members is the next taskGold is the worst performer; melts below $2,700 It's no longer in question, Donald Trump made a remarkable comeback to the White House with 279 electoral seats at the time of writing compared to Kamala Harris’ of 224 despite 34 felony count convictions, two assassination attempts, and a stormy campaign battle with Kamala Harris. This is not the only victory for Trump.
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Could markets relive the 2016 post-election day performance?

Euro/dollar could suffer if 2016 repeats itselfUS stocks could further benefit from Trump’s winGold and bitcoin might move in opposite directionEuro/dollar volatility could rise furtherTrump wins a second termFormer President Trump has won the 2024 presidential election, achieving a noticeable comeback following the 2020 defeat. The market reaction has been mostly within expectations, with the dollar gaining across the board, gold suffering and bitcoin enjoying strong gains.While market partic
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Quick Brief – ISM services PMI comes in favor of Biden’s era

ISM non-mfg. accelerates in October, employment index strengthens tooInvestors remain confident about a 25bps rate cut this week; dollar barely rises The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index came in favor of Biden’s administration on Tuesday, arriving stronger than expected as US voters headed to the polls to elect the next President.The survey for October showed surprisingly increased business activity for the second consecutive month, with the index rising to 56.0 – the highest in more than tw
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD snaps key barrier but another one stands in the way

EURUSD battles with 1.0900Stochastics and MACD are mixedEURUSD successfully surpassed the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0870, flirting with the 1.0900 round number. As the pair continues to rise, it is approaching the resistance levels of 1.0915 and 1.0950, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.0985. More importantly, the 1.1000 round number is waiting on the market’s horizon for a potential pullback.On the other hand, a drop below the 200-day SMA may send traders to battle with the medium- and
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Volatility remains high as US voters elect a new president – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices experience a jump in volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to a new 30-day high, as market participants are preparing for the US presidential election and Thursday’s Fed meeting. This heightened volatility is being observed across the FX space, including in the yen pairs.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD makes soft positive start on US election day

EURUSD eyes breakout above 1.0880-1.0900 for further gainsRecent rebound is not enough to upgrade short-term outlookA strong rally above 1.1000 needed for bulls to seize controlEURUSD kicked off the US election day on a cautiously positive note, aiming to cross above the 1.0880-1.0900 border that has been capping bullish momentum over the past three sessions.
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Daily Comment – Markets hold their breath as America votes

US presidential election in the spotlightMarkets in anticipation mode as volatility is elevatedDollar, equities and gold remain under pressureAussie fails to materially benefit from RBA’s hawkishnessThe long wait is finally overThe countdown for the biggest event of 2024 is finally over as in a few hours around 80 million registered voters will cast their vote across the United States.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

The US election is here! Will USDJPY continue its upward momentum?EURUSD takes a U-turn before the Fed's policy announcementGBPUSD stays trapped below 1.3000 as the BoE rate decision looms2024 US election --> USDJPY November 5 will be a sleepless day in the US as voters will finally head to the polls to elect the next president. The battle between the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Vice-President Kamala Harris has been hanging in the balance, and any outcome is possible, despi
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Preparing for a US election marathon

The world is preparing for the November 5 US presidential electionVoting times vary across states but the focus will be on seven key statesCandidates need to win most of these swing states to secure victory“Safe” states will be called quickly but the final result might be delayed for daysThe countdown to the US presidential election is almost finished, with the polls opening on Tuesday.
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Week Ahead – US election draws all eyes, Fed, RBA and BoE meet

Traders lock gaze on Tuesday’s US electionTrump and Harris battle neck and neck in final stretchFed to decide whether to cut interest ratesRBA and BoE decisions are also on next week’s agendaThe US dollar flexed its muscles lately on the back of upbeat data suggesting that there is no need for the Fed to deliver another bold 50bps rate cut at the remaining gatherings of the year, but also due to increasing market bets that Donald Trump will return to the White House.It’s US election time!T
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Daily Comment – Volatility returns with a vengeance ahead of key US events

Month-end pushes stock indices and gold in the redMarket angst could continue going into Tuesday’s US electionFocus today is on the US labour market dataDollar fails to benefit against the euro and the yenMonth-end pushes stock indices in the redThe recent, relatively quiet, market sessions were interrupted yesterday, with a strong correction recorded in both equities and gold.
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Quick Brief – PCE inflation adds to strong US data run ahead of Fed decision

Core PCE price index stays unchanged at 2.7% y/yPersonal consumption accelerates to 0.5% m/mBut US dollar stays on the backfoot Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 2.1% y/y in September, but the underlying measure was unchanged at 2.7% y/y. The decline in the headline figure was in line with expectations but core PCE was forecast to have moderated to 2.6% y/y.The data underscores worries that underlying price pressures are proving to be stick
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Daily Comment – Dollar slips amid stronger yen and euro, data barrage continues

Yen up after Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expectedEuro climbs on stronger German GDP and inflationDollar choppy after mixed US data, focus turns to PCE inflationStocks struggle on earnings outlook worriesYen gets unexpected boostThe yen firmed up on Thursday after the Bank of Japan struck a somewhat more hawkish-than-expected tone as it kept rates on hold but signalled it remains on track to raise rates further.
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Quick Brief - US Q3 GDP disappoints but ADP employment beat lifts dollar

US economy grows by 2.8% in Q3 versus 3.0% expectedADP employment points to strong month for jobs in OctoberUS dollar heads north but more tests on the wayThe US GDP report kicked off the run of crucial data for the next three days, paving the way for next week’s policy meeting by the Federal Reserve. GDP growth came in slightly below expectations in the third quarter, printing at 2.8% against forecasts of 3.0%.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD posts bullish spike near 200-day SMA

EURUSD erases today’s gainsStochastics and MACD still suggest upside momentumEURUSD has continued to develop between the medium- and long-term ascending trend lines, despite the bullish spike towards the 1.0860 level earlier in the day. The 1.0775 support looks to be a tough obstacle for the bears, and only a closing session beneath it would sw
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Quick Brief – Eurozone GDP exceeds expectations

Eurozone GDP expands by 0.4%Germany posts 0.2% growthEuro/dollar shows signs of upside recoveryThe Eurozone economy expanded more rapidly than anticipated in the previous quarter; however, the outlook remains subdued due to the potential for excessive tariffs from a Trump presidency and the escalation of trade tensions with China.The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3, marking the highest growth rate in two years, subsequent to a 0.2% increase in Q2 and surpassing projections of 0.2%.
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Daily Comment – Wall Street lifted by earnings as election jitters boost gold

US dollar and gold remain elevated as markets bet on Trump winBut Nasdaq hits record amid optimism about tech earningsSlew of data awaited out of the US and Eurozone, UK budget also eyedUS election angst still driving sentiment  Growing anxiety about the US presidential election continued to set the market mood on Wednesday, with Republican candidate Donald Trump extending his gains in the polls.
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