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AUDUSD


XM-анализ

Week Ahead – US CPI to shift market focus back to data after Trump shock

After Trump comeback, normality to return to markets with US CPIGDP data from UK and Japan to also be importantBut volatility to likely persist as markets assess impact of Trump 2.0US CPI eyed as rate cut bets fade after Trump winDonald Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with a euphoric response by the markets. Wall Street and Bitcoin rallied to record highs, while the US dollar skyrocketed to 4-month highs.
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AUDUSD is well in the red todayStrong resistance set by the 200-day SMAMomentum indicators are mostly bearishAUDUSD is trading lower today, reacting to the news that former president Trump has probably secured a second term in the White House, with today’s price action almost entirely canceling out Tuesday’s upleg, which was caused by the hawkish RBA meeting.
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AUDUSD claims 0.6620 zone after fast rallyShort-term bias positive, but there are more threats higherStochastics and RSI in bullish modeAUDUSD has been gaining some ground over the last week, testing the 0.6620 resistance level. The price managed to surpass above the 20- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour chart with the momentum oscillators experiencing an upside movement.
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Daily Comment – Markets hold their breath as America votes

US presidential election in the spotlightMarkets in anticipation mode as volatility is elevatedDollar, equities and gold remain under pressureAussie fails to materially benefit from RBA’s hawkishnessThe long wait is finally overThe countdown for the biggest event of 2024 is finally over as in a few hours around 80 million registered voters will cast their vote across the United States.
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Daily Comment – Dollar gaps down as Trump seems to be losing Iowa

Nonfarm payrolls slow to the smallest gain since Dec 2020Dollar opens Monday with negative gap on US election pollWhat will Fed officials decide just after the election?RBA gets the ball rolling tonight; expected to stand patDollar brushes off very weak nonfarm payrollsThe dollar finished Friday’s session up against most of its major peers, despite nonfarm payrolls slowing to 12k last month, the smallest gain since December 2020.Despite the surprisingly low number, the market brushed off the r
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RBA in wait-and-see mode despite drop in inflation – Preview

RBA to stand pat at 4.35%Aussie may not be affected from this meetingDecision due on Tuesday at 3:30 GMTRBA policy to remain unchangedThe upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting on November 5 is highly anticipated, with the bank adopting a wait-and-see approach and holding the cash rate steady while monitoring economic developments.
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Week Ahead – US election draws all eyes, Fed, RBA and BoE meet

Traders lock gaze on Tuesday’s US electionTrump and Harris battle neck and neck in final stretchFed to decide whether to cut interest ratesRBA and BoE decisions are also on next week’s agendaThe US dollar flexed its muscles lately on the back of upbeat data suggesting that there is no need for the Fed to deliver another bold 50bps rate cut at the remaining gatherings of the year, but also due to increasing market bets that Donald Trump will return to the White House.It’s US election time!T
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Daily Comment – Volatility returns with a vengeance ahead of key US events

Month-end pushes stock indices and gold in the redMarket angst could continue going into Tuesday’s US electionFocus today is on the US labour market dataDollar fails to benefit against the euro and the yenMonth-end pushes stock indices in the redThe recent, relatively quiet, market sessions were interrupted yesterday, with a strong correction recorded in both equities and gold.
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Technical Analysis – Could the AUDUSD selloff pause temporarily?

AUDUSD is trading sideways, a tad above 0.6547The downtrend from the September 30 high remains in placeMomentum indicators are mostly bearishAUDUSD is trading sideways today, a tad above 0.6547. The bearish trend from the September 30 peak remains firmly in place, and, quite interestingly, AUDUSD bulls have failed, up to now, to stage an upleg and temporarily interrupt the ongoing selloff.
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Daily Comment – Wall Street lifted by earnings as election jitters boost gold

US dollar and gold remain elevated as markets bet on Trump winBut Nasdaq hits record amid optimism about tech earningsSlew of data awaited out of the US and Eurozone, UK budget also eyedUS election angst still driving sentiment  Growing anxiety about the US presidential election continued to set the market mood on Wednesday, with Republican candidate Donald Trump extending his gains in the polls.
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Week Ahead – A decisive week for USD with NFP and more; BoJ meets

A crucial week lies ahead with US jobs report, advance GDP and PCE inflationThe Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates, but will it flag a year-end hike?Flash GDP and CPI data for the euro area are also hotly anticipatedAustralian quarterly CPI and UK budget on the agenda tooAll eyes on US data as Fed turns hawkish againThe Federal Reserve’s surprise decision in September to cut rates by a larger-than-expected 50-basis-points seems like a distant memory now, as policymakers are once again sen
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD battles with 200-day SMA

AUDUSD may pause downside moveStochastic and RSI still show negative signsAUDUSD has been battling with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.6630 over the last couple of days, and selling interest has started after its pullback off the 20-month high of 0.6940.According to technical oscillators, the stochastic is trying to cross beneath the 20 level, and the RSI is sloping slightly south below the neutral threshold of 50.If the price successfully falls below the 200-day SMA and the
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD: Will September’s bullish vibes return?

AUDUSD tests support area near 200-day SMAShort-term bias remains on the negative sideAUDUSD has been on a downward slide again, marking its fourth consecutive week in the red. It recently dipped to a two-month low of 0.6612 but held above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the constraining falling line from February 2023, which increases speculation as to whether the sell-off is finally hitting a bottom.Remember back in September when those support lines gave the price a nice boost?
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Week Ahead – BoC to speed up rate cuts; flash PMIs eyed for growth clues

Bank of Canada meets; may opt for bigger 50-bps cutOctober flash PMIs to set the mood amid some growth concernsA relatively quiet week otherwise, with mostly second-tier releasesBoC to likely cut by half a pointExpectations that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting firmed up after the latest CPI data. Nevertheless, markets are not fully convinced of an outsized move, hence, there is a little bit of uncertainty heading into Wednesday’s decision by Canada��
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Daily Comment – Dollar edges up, stocks muted as China stimulus underwhelms

China announces more stimulus details but no word on size of packageAttention turns to week’s other events as stocks unimpressedEuro and pound flat as ECB decision and UK CPI awaitedChina pledges more support, stocks steadyChinese officials unveiled more measures to shore up the country’s embattled property sector while also pledging further support for businesses and consumers in two separate announcements on Saturday and Monday.
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Daily Comment – Risk appetite ebbs as markets fret over China stimulus, Fed rate cuts

Risk sentiment dented as China refrains from fresh stimulus measuresFed officials give cautious green light to more rate cutsDollar and equities turn lower after recent gains as US CPI awaitedMarkets consolidate as China announcement disappointsOptimism about China’s newfound love for bold stimulus policies faded slightly on Tuesday as a much-anticipated press briefing by the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ended without any significant new measures being announce
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD pauses bullish rally for a while

AUDUSD may find support at 0.6800Stochastic and RSI suggest more declinesAUDUSD has found strong resistance at the 20-month high of 0.6940 and is retreating towards the immediate 20-day simple moving average at 0.6800.The technical oscillators currently confirm the recent bearish correction. Following the pullback from the overbought area, the stochastic oscillator is moving lower, while the RSI is moving horizontally slightly above the neutral threshold of 50.A move to the downside could drive
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Daily Comment – PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

Softer PCE data keep chances of another 50bps Fed cut elevatedFed Chair Powell speaks, ISM PMIs and NFP on this week’s agendaYen rally pauses after Ishiba says policy should stay accommodativeAussie, kiwi and Chinese stocks celebrate PBoC’s measuresMarket assigns decent chance for back-to-back 50bps Fed cutThe dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August, although the more important core PC
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Week Ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut

Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in NovemberFed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut betsEurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cutsChina PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tapWill the Fed opt for a back-to-back 50bps rate cut?Although the dollar slipped after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps and to signal that another 50bps worth of reductions are on the cards for the remainder of the year, the currency traded in a consolidative manner this
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Technical Analysis – Will the AUDUSD rally pause prove temporary?

AUDUSD continues to experience high volatilityIt tests the resistance set by a long-term trendlineMomentum indicators send a mixed message AUDUSD is trading sideways today, following three very volatile sessions that pushed it to the highest level since February 2023. It is currently testing the resistance set by the February 25, 2021 downward sloping trendline, with today’s US PCE report potentially proving pivotal in the outcome of this battle.
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