US farmers back Trump but face pain from China tariff threats
Farmers want Trump administration to boost US exports
Trump vows tariffs against top soy-importer China
US faces record agricultural trade deficit in 2025
By Tom Polansek
CHICAGO, Nov 7 (Reuters) -U.S. farmers want something from President-elect Donald Trump that his trade policies mean he is unlikely to deliver: increased access to the market of top soy-importer China.
Trump's Republican party enjoys wide support across the U.S. farm belt, where he won most states in Tuesday's election. Farmers typically back him even though the U.S. agriculture sector was one of the hardest hit during the U.S.-China trade war that Trump fought during his first administration.
China targeted the U.S. farm community with retaliatory tariffs on imports of American agricultural goods, after Trump imposed tariffs on a wide range of goods from China. U.S. soy exports to China have never recovered - in fact, China has slashed its dependence on U.S. farm goods since the 2018 trade war.
Farmers and two potential contenders for the position of Trump's agriculture secretary say they want his administration to focus on boosting U.S. exports and crafting trade deals to help revitalize the sector.
"We really need to get out there and represent the U.S. products and make sure that we get some sales on the books," said Kip Tom, an Indiana corn and soy farmer who served as ambassador to the United Nations food agency during Trump's first term.
But Trump is threatening new tariffs on Chinese imports, and China is likely to reciprocate. That would lead to less access, not more, to China's agriculture import market. Trump would also likely hit imports from other countries farmers would want to sell into with tariffs.
Trump, who beat DemocraticVice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and at least a 10% levy on all other imports in his second term.
"I think it's terribly naive of anyone to think that the election of Trump and the Republican party will be positive for agriculture," said Jay O'Neil, a grain industry consultant and former economist at Kansas State University
A new round of trade wars would come at a tough time. U.S. corn and soy prices tumbled to 2020 lows this year under pressure from massive harvests and intense competition for global export sales from rival supplier Brazil. That has hit the U.S. agriculture economy hard and reduced demand for tractors, combines and other agricultural equipment from companies like Deere & Co DE.N.
The nation is projected to face a record $42.5 billion agricultural trade deficit in 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
U.S. soybean exports to China fell to about 26.4 million metric tons last year from 36.1 million in 2016 and 31.7 million in 2017, before the last trade war, the agency said.
Beijing failed to meet obligations for U.S. agricultural purchases under a 2020 trade deal signed with Trump to end the trade war, according to the Census Bureau.
Still, farmers said they think a new dispute with Beijing would be short lived and less economically painful.
"It won't be near as prolonged as it was the first time because they know he's serious," said Texas Agriculture Secretary Sid Miller, who worked to elect Trump.
Miller and Tom are seen as potential contenders for USDA secretary.
Trump's first administration kept farmers onside with generous subsidies to offset lost U.S. sales to China from the trade war. Soybean farmers received $5.4 billion more in aid than they lost in price impact, a University of California-Davis study found.
Another trade war could cost soy farmers $3.6 billionto $5.9 billion in annual production value, depending on how the dispute plays out, according to an October study from the National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association.
For corn, Brazil overtook the U.S. as China's top supplier in 2023, just one year after Beijing approved purchases from the South American agricultural powerhouse.
"We've let Brazil and Argentina and Australia and New Zealand and everybody else beat us to the punch," Miller said. "We've got to reverse that trend."
U.S. soybean exports to China were down 13% from a year ago through September and corn exports sank 71%, according to USDA data.
Such declines worry Dave Kestel, a corn and soy grower in Manhattan, Illinois, who used a plow to carve "Trump" in giant letters in a farm field ahead of the election.
Still, a trade battle with China could ultimately benefit U.S. workers, despite some temporary pain, he said.
"People on the other side are saying 'Oh my god, he's going to impose these tariffs,'" said Kestel, who voted for Trump.
"It's about bringing businesses back here again."
Reporting by Tom Polansek; Editing by Simon Webb and Marguerita Choy
Последние новости
Правовая оговорка: Компании группы XM Group предоставляют только услуги по исполнению сделок и доступ к нашей торговой онлайн-среде, в которой пользователи могут просматривать и (или) пользоваться материалами, доступными на вебсайте либо доступными по ссылкам с данного сайта на другие. Предоставление доступа к онлайн-среде не меняет сути предоставляемых услуг и не расширяет их. Такой доступ и пользование материалами предоставляются с учетом:(i) «Условий и положений»; (ii) «Предупреждений о рисках» и (iii) полного текста «Правовой оговорки». Следовательно, подобные материалы предоставляются лишь в качестве информации общего характера. В частности, просим Вас иметь в виду, что материалы, содержащиеся в нашей торговой онлайн-среде, не являются ни просьбой осуществить какие-либо транзакции на финансовых рынках, ни предложением к осуществлению подобных транзакций. Торговля на любом финансовом рынке подразумевает большой риск потери Вашего капитала.
Все материалы, опубликованные в нашей торговой среде, предоставляются только в образовательных или информационных целях и не содержат (и не должны рассматриваться как содержащие) финансовых, инвестиционных или торговых рекомендаций, а также информации о стоимости наших услуг по предоставлению доступа к рынкам, либо предложения или содействия в проведении транзакций по какому-либо финансовому инструменту или по незапрашиваемым финансовым услугам по отношению к Вам.
Любые материалы на данном вебсайте, созданные третьими лицами, а также материалы, подготовленные XM, такие как мнения экспертов, новости, исследования, анализ, котировки и другая информация, а также ссылки на сторонние сайты предоставляются в виде «как есть», как рыночная информация общего характера, и не являют собой рекомендации по инвестициям. Принимая во внимание то, что любые материалы рассматриваются как инвестиционное исследование, Вам следует учесть и принять тот факт, что никакие материалы не подготавливались и не предназначались к использованию в соответствии с правовыми нормами, способствующими независимости инвестиционных исследований. Следовательно, материалы следует рассматривать как материалы рекламного характера согласно соответствующим законам и правовым нормам. Рекомендуем Вам прочесть и уяснить для себя положения наших «Уведомления о субъективном инвестиционном исследовании» и «Предупреждения о рисках» в отношении приведённой выше информации. С этими документами можно ознакомиться здесь.
