The season's upon us
Main U.S. indexes rise; Dow out front, up ~0.6%
Utilities lead S&P sector gainers; Energy sole loser
Dollar, gold slip; crude down >5.5%; bitcoin up >1.5%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield jumps to ~4.29%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
THE SEASON'S UPON US
November marks the start of the "best six months" strategy by the Stock Trader's Almanac, which says that investing in the Dow Industrials .DJI between Nov. 1 and April 30, then switching to fixed income for the other six months "has produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950."
According to the Almanac, those six "best" months saw the Dow rise 26,249.55 points versus 7,634.28 in the other six May through October months. For the S&P 500 .SPX, the benchmark index climbed 3,018.83 points in the "best" months compared with 1,132.58 in the "worst" six months.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York notes the S&P recorded its highest average price return and frequency of advance during the "best" six months, with the weakest average performance in the other six.
While the S&P rose an average of almost 7% during the "best" months, it gained only 2% during the lackluster period.
However, in this year's "worst" six months, Stovall said the S&P 500 "didn't miss a beat" as it jumped slightly more than 15% from the end of April through Oct. 25, on top of the jump in the prior period from November through April timeframe.
This has led some investors to question whether the market has "used up its energy reserves and may be headed for tough times," said Stovall.
At least according to history, that has not been the case, as Stovall notes that of the dozen prior times the S&P has gained more than 10% in the "worst" period through the end of October, the subsequent "best" period saw an average rise of 13%, gaining ground 92% of the time.
In addition, there have been five times since 1945 the S&P has posted double-digit gains in both the "best" and "worst" time periods, rising 80% of the time in the following "best" period, with an average rise of 11%.
(Chuck Mikolajczak)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
WITH ELECTION DAY NEARING, MARKETS FOCUS IN ON TWO LIKELY OUTCOMES - CLICK HERE
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS: THIS WEEK'S ECONOMICS - CLICK HERE
U.S. HOUSING MARKET'S AGONY COULD SEE SOME RELIEF NEXT YEAR - CLICK HERE
CRUDE OIL FUTURES: DRILLING DOWN TO SUPPORT, IS IT SOLID? - CLICK HERE
UK MOTOR FINANCE RULING HITS EXPOSED LENDERS, ANALYSTS CRUNCH NUMBERS - CLICK HERE
EU BEVERAGES MAY BE FACING A NASTY HANGOVER ON NOV. 6 - CLICK HERE
WHY DID THE NIKKEI FINISH HIGHER ON MONDAY? - CLICK HERE
INVESTORS SEE FRENCH AND GERMAN STOCKS AS EUROPE'S 'WEAK LINKS' - JPM - CLICK HERE
AIRLINES LIFT EUROPE AS OIL PROVIDES DRAG - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: SCREENS FLASH GREEN - CLICK HERE
EVENT RISKS GALORE THIS WEEK CLICK HERE
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
