Mortgage rates dip further; some borrowers bite
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MORTGAGE RATES DIP FURTHER; SOME BORROWERS BITE
The cost of financing home loans stayed on a meandering journey downward last week, getting the attention of a smattering of would-be buyers, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI shed 6 basis points to 6.44%, the lowest since April 2003.
As a result, applications for loans to buy homes USMGPI=ECI increased by about 1.0%, which offset a nominal 0.1% decline in refi demand USMGR=ECI.
High mortgage rates have resulted in a double-whammy of sorts for the housing market; first, they made monthly payments less affordable.
Second, they have dissuaded homeowners, many of whom had locked in much lower rates, from entering the market.
This has resulted in a supply drought, which pushed home prices upward and further strained affordability.
But Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has at last announced that "the time has come" to cut interest rates, and that could be causing some hesitancy as would-be borrowers await further declines in borrowing costs.
"As observed in recent weeks, despite lower rates, purchase applications have not moved much," writes Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist. "Prospective homebuyers are staying patient now that rates are moving lower and for-sale inventory has started to increase."
The 30-year fixed rate is now 87 basis points below where it was during the same week last year. While refi demand has jumped 85.2% over that time period, purchase applications are down 9.0%.
But while applications for loans to buy homes is considered among the most leading housing indicators, it can't hold a candle to the stock market, which tends to reflect where investors expect the sector to be six to 12 months down the road.
With that in mind, over the last year, the S&P 1500 Homebuilding index .SPCOMHOME and the Philadelphia SE Housing index .HGX have risen by 58.9% and 45.6%, respectively.
Compare that with the broader S&P 500's still-impressive 26.9% advance over the same time period:
(Stephen Culp)
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Mortgage demand https://reut.rs/3yY9SoE
Housing stocks https://reut.rs/3T9tsVD
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