German autos - pop goes the diesel
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GERMAN AUTOS - POP GOES THE DIESEL
Germany's car giants are grappling with weak demand and increased competition from lower-cost rivals in China, and with an escalating trade tit-for-tat, sentiment within the industry is plunging.
Monday's business sentiment survey from the Ifo economic institute showed German morale falling for a third consecutive month in August, pushing back recovery hopes for the economy.
However, what Citi found interesting from the depths of the survey was that automotive export expectations plunged to their lowest outside of the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 COVID lockdowns.
"The latest weakness in manufacturing seems very concentrated in the car industry," Citi said in a note on Monday.
"The plunge in automotive industry export expectations ... suggests that the latest setback is external."
Part of this could be in response to the EU's proposal on tariffs on imported Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), which has provoked threats of retaliation from Beijing.
German automakers had previously warned that EU tariffs on Chinese EVs could backfire, with BMW BMWG.DE, Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE and Mercedes-Benz MBGn.DE all heavily reliant on revenues from China.
And that has been reflected in the share prices of Germany's autos sector.
BMW shares are down 25% from their April peak, Volkswagen shares are lower by over 30% and Mercedes-Benz shares are off 18%.
Should the EU backtrack on its planned tariffs or water down some measures, Germany's autos sector might start firing again, but for now it remains mired in the doldrums.
(Samuel Indyk)
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