European carmakers warn on profits in the face of weak demand and rising costs

Reuters

European carmakers warn on profits in the face of weak demand and rising costs

Sep 30, 2024 at 4:11 pm GMT

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European carmakers struggle with weak U.S., China demand

Potential tariff war adds to sector's concerns

Stellantis shares drop nearly 11%

Aston Martin shares plunge 20% after profit warning

Updates stock action in paragraphs 4 and 5, analyst comments on Stellantis' U.S. approach in paragraphs 15 and 16

By Nick Carey

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) -European carmaker Stellantis STLAM.MI on Monday joined bigger rival Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE and others in warning about the worsening outlook for auto demand and rising costs, wiping billions of euros off the sector's market value.

The companies are struggling with weak demand in China and the United States and a potential trade war between Beijing and the European Union as the EU prepares to finalise import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, imposed over alleged subsidies.

British luxury carmaker Aston Martin AML.L also partly blamed falling demand in China for a full-year profit warning on Monday, as did Mercedes-Benz MBGn.DE and BMW BMWG.DE earlier this month.

Aston Martin's shares plunged as much as 28% to their lowest in nearly two years.

Shares in Stellantis, long popular with investors but now seen as acting too slowly to address problems in the U.S. market, fell nearly 15% and hit their lowest since December 2022. Stellantis shares have lost 38% in value this year, making it Europe's worst performing automaker.

The latest warnings follow Volkswagen's announcement late on Friday that it was cutting its 2024 profit outlook for the second time in under three months. Its shares were down a little over 2.8% in mid-morning trading on Monday.

The German car giants have been reliant on China for around a third of their sales and have been hit by the weaker economy there, fiercer competition from domestic Chinese automakers and a vicious price war in the electric vehicles (EV) market.

"MANAGEMENT'S CONSPICUOUS ABSENCE"

Falling European demand has not helped. New car sales in the EU fell 18.3% in August to their lowest in three years with double-digit losses in major markets Germany, France and Italy and sliding EV sales.

But many of Stellantis' problems stem from North America.

The expensive Jeeps and pickup trucks it sells in the U.S. market have generated virtually all its profits since the automaker was formed by the 2021 merger of FCA and PSA, and have made its profit margins the envy of its mainstream peers.

But high inventories and weak sales as Stellantis has somehow misjudged its cash cow market has forced it to cut production while also offering deep discounts on the vehicles depreciating on dealer lots across America.

As a consequence Stellantis has slashed its adjusted profit margin for the year to between 5.5% and 7%, down from double digits, and warned of negative cash flow of between 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) and 10 billion euros.

In a client note after Stellantis' investor relations team held a conference call with investors, Bernstein analysts wrote that the company had been slow to address concerns over the size of its U.S. inventories.

"Today's cut ... signals a drastic about-face," they wrote. That lack of speed, "management's conspicuous absence during today's call" and concerns over pricing discipline "will require a significant effort to rebuild trust going forward."

Forward 12-month price-earnings ratios, a measure of a company's market value, for the three biggest European carmakers - VW, Stellantis and Renault RENA.PA - are around 3, much lower than U.S. rivals, GM GM.N and Ford F.N, and the world's largest carmaker, Toyota 7203.T.

Where traditional European automakers' problems intersect is rising competition from Chinese rivals who can develop better, cheaper EVs faster than Volkswagen, Stellantis or Renault can.

They are also struggling to sell the EVs they are making, while investing large sums to develop new, more affordable models.

Changing over production lines to new models takes revenue-generating capacity offline, exacerbating cash flow issues for legacy automakers whose plants already have capacity utilization problems that they have failed to address.

Falling market share in China and lower car demand in Europe have led Volkswagen to warn of possible plant closures in Germany, putting the company on a collision course with the powerful IG Metall union.

Talks over pay between Volkswagen and the union started last week.

($1 = 0.8948 euros)

Reporting By Nick Carey; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Catherine Evans

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