British banks caught in budget crosshairs
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BRITISH BANKS CAUGHT IN BUDGET CROSSHAIRS
British bank stocks steadied on Thursday, after falling the day before, but Wednesday's move underscored investors' nerves about possible new taxes on the sector.
Major banks like Lloyds LLOY.L, NatWest NWG.L and Barclays BARC.L all rose Thursday having dropped1.7%-3.3% a day earlierafter Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned of a "painful" budget, with markets speculating that banks could be in the firing line if taxes are to be raised.
"In our view, such type of speculation is an ongoing feature of the nature of the debate around UK banks," JPMorgan analysts write in a note.
"While it is understandable in our view that Banks are seen as a sector that has benefitted from higher rates and hence expected pay a higher share of tax, we would point out that UK Banks are already one of the most penalised sectors."
JPM notes that banks already pay three additional taxes on top of corporation tax.
"Raising several billions from another bank levy is likely to be unrealistic when we already have a UK Bank levy ... and a UK bank supercharge," JPM says.
But if the UK was to introduce a new levy, JPM estimates a 1% increase in the UK tax rate would see Lloyds most impacted, followed by NatWest, Barclays and HSBC, with no material impact for Standard Chartered.
The bank has overweight ratings on NatWest and Barclays and prefers them over underweight-rated Lloyds.
(Samuel Indyk)
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