US yields surge as Trump victory accelerates bond sell-off
Longer-dated U.S. bond yields surge
Trump win seen widening deficits
Tariff plans could also increase inflation
US yield curve hits steepest since late September
Focus shifts to Fed meeting
Updates prices; adds new comment, byline; previous dateline LONDON
By Harry Robertson and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
LONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) -U.S. Treasuries fell sharply on Wednesday, sending yields surging to multi-month highs as Donald Trump's election victory stoked bets on economic policy shifts that could boost deficits and inflation.
Republican former President Trump swept back to power early in the U.S. morning, beating Democrat Vice President KamalaHarris in crucial swing states and capping a political comeback four years after he left the White House.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR rose as much as 18 basis points to 4.479%, its highest since July, as polls also showed Republicans winning control of the Senate and a close race for the House of Representatives.
The yield, which moves inversely to the price, was last up 16.4 bps at 4.449%, on track for its biggest one-day rise since April.
Trump campaigned on a platform of tax cuts, which economists say would juice the economy, widen budget deficits and increase government borrowing. He also touted tariffs, which analysts expect to stoke inflation and reduce the Federal Reserve's scope to cut interest rates.
"These election results will be really bad for fixed income and can unwind a lot of the bullishness in (the market). Trump keeps openly telling people that he will increase tariffs not just on China but with every trade partner," said Andrzej Skiba, head of BlueBay U.S. fixed income at RBC Global Asset Management.
"We're talking 10% tariffs across all global partners. This is a big deal because this could add 1% to inflation and if you add 1% to next year's inflation numbers, we should say bye to rate cuts."
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note US30YT=RR last traded 19 bps higher at 4.641%. That was its highest since late May andset for its biggest one-day rise since March 2020, underscoring concerns about future borrowing.
The MOVE index .MOVE, the benchmark gauge of rate volatility, hit a more than one-year high of 136.25 on Monday, suggesting that Treasury yields across most maturities will move at least 8.5 basis points per day in either direction over the next month. It was at 130.43 on late Tuesday.
Harley Bassman, creator of the MOVE index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, predicted that based on his calculations, option prices anticipate an outsized move of 18 basis points in Treasury yields a day or two after the election. That has been the size of the move so far on Wednesday.
Trump clinched victory at around 5.30 a.m. ET after capturing the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, according to Edison Research.
Treasury yields surged once it became clear Trump had considerably improved on his 2020 election performance against Joe Biden.
On the short end of the curve, thetwo-year yield US2YT=RR peaked at 4.312%, its highest since late July, and last traded roughly 7.5bps higher at 4.278%. It was on pace for its biggest one-day gain in a month.
The U.S. yield curve steepened sharply on Wednesday, with the gap between two-year and 10-year yields hitting 19.5 US2US10=TWEB, the highest since late September. The curve was last at 16 bps, from 8.8 bps late Tuesday.
The curve has been on a steepening trend for the last few months, a scenario that occurs when the Fed is cutting interest rates.
How much of Trump's tax cut plan will make it through Congress depends on whether the Republicans achieve a clean sweep. Close House races could take days to call.
U.S. budget deficits and government debt levels were projected to surge under either candidate in the election, according to several estimates, although Harris was expected to add less debt than Trump.
The Fed, meanwhile, kicksoff its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and is expected to deliver another 25-bprate cut, though future decisions look less certain.
Traders have reacted to the election results by trimming bets on Fed cuts next year, with rates seen staying above 4% until May 2025. The market has priced in about 42 bps of cuts this year and another 62 bps of reductions in 2025. Next year's estimate came down from about 90 bps a few weeks ago.
"I start to worry when yields cross the 4.50% mark," said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management.
"If we don't reverse that upward trend, I would be more reticent to add too much more risk until we hear from the Fed or get a little bit more guidance with respect to where terminal rates might lie."
U.S. yields hit multi-month highs on likely Trump win https://reut.rs/3AjB2ah
Reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Additional reporting by Davide Barbuscia, Rae Wee in Singapore, and Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Shri Navaratnam, Christina Fincher, Barbara Lewis and Richard Chang
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
